Predictable seismic cycles result from structural rupture barriers on oceanic transform faults

Jianhua Gong; Wenyuan Fan; Jeffrey J. McGuire; Mark D. Behn; Jessica M. Warren; Emily Roland; M. S. Boettcher; J. A. Collins; Y. Liu; C. R. German

doi:10.1126/science.ady6190

Predictable seismic cycles result from structural rupture barriers on oceanic transform faults

Science

By: Jianhua Gong, Wenyuan Fan, Jeffrey J. McGuire, Mark D. Behn, Jessica M. Warren, Emily Roland, M. S. Boettcher, J. A. Collins, Y. Liu, and C. R. German

https://doi.org/10.1126/science.ady6190

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Abstract

Earthquakes of magnitude (M) >5.5 on oceanic transform faults (OTFs) repeatedly rupture the same locked patches, sometimes quasiperiodically. These patches are separated by “barriers” that halt earthquake propagation and slip mostly aseismically. However, the physical processes governing this systematic behavior remain unclear. We analyzed two barriers along the Gofar transform fault that have arrested ~15 M6 earthquakes over the past three decades. Ocean bottom seismometer data indicate that the barriers hosted intense microseismicity before the mainshocks and comprise multistrand faults and transtensional stepovers with 100- to 400-m lateral offset. These characteristics contradict earthquake rupture termination models invoking velocity-strengthening friction or large geometric steps and instead point to damage-enhanced porosity and dilatancy-strengthening mechanisms. By isolating rupture segments, the barriers regulate the quasiperiodic recurrence of OTF earthquakes.

Suggested Citation

Gong, J., Fan, W., McGuire, J.J., Behn, M.D., Warren, J.M., Roland, E., Boettcher, M.S., Collins, J.A., Liu, Y., and German, C.R., 2026, Predictable seismic cycles result from structural rupture barriers on oceanic transform faults: Science, v. 392, p. 718-723, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.ady6190.

Additional publication details
Publication type	Article
Publication Subtype	Journal Article
Title	Predictable seismic cycles result from structural rupture barriers on oceanic transform faults
Series title	Science
DOI	10.1126/science.ady6190
Volume	392
Publication Date	May 14, 2026
Year Published	2026
Language	English
Publisher	AAAS
Contributing office(s)	Earthquake Science Center
Description	6 p.
First page	718
Last page	723
Other Geospatial	Gofar transform fault, Pacific Ocean