Forecasting spread of invasive fish over a largescale network of lakes using local expert knowledge
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Abstract
Understanding spatial distribution patterns is essential to management of invasive species. Aquatic invasive species can be notably challenging to detect due to the substantial effort required to locate them underwater. This limitation has resulted in a lack of timely distribution maps, particularly over vast regions, and hindered efforts to understand, forecast, and manage the proliferation of invasive bigheaded carps (Hypophthalmichthys spp.). Much of the Mississippi River basin, particularly the Lower Mississippi Alluvial Valley, provides access to a massive network of interconnected floodplain lakes. In the absence of lake-specific monitoring data on carp occurrence status, we used local expert knowledge, provided by fish managers interviewed virtually, in conjunction with Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modeling, to predict bigheaded carps distribution in relation to lake physical characteristics. We predicted widespread carp invasion in more than 60% of over one thousand floodplain lakes, with lake size, inundation, and proximity to rivers closely related to carp presence. The resultant distribution map may be imprecise given the swift proliferation of bigheaded carps and sparse monitoring data, but it offers a baseline upon which presence data and range can be compared. This assessment method is also a resource for identifying priority management and conservation areas and can serve as a first step in conservation planning.
Suggested Citation
Palmieri, M., Miranda, L.E., Boudreau, M.R., Dunn, C.G., Burger, L.M., and Riecke, D., 2026, Forecasting spread of invasive fish over a largescale network of lakes using local expert knowledge: Aquatic Invasions, v. 21, no. 2, p. 127-146, https://doi.org/10.3391/ai.2026.21.2.190069.
Study Area
| Publication type | Article |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
| Title | Forecasting spread of invasive fish over a largescale network of lakes using local expert knowledge |
| Series title | Aquatic Invasions |
| DOI | 10.3391/ai.2026.21.2.190069 |
| Volume | 21 |
| Issue | 2 |
| Publication Date | April 30, 2026 |
| Year Published | 2026 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | Regional Euro-Asian Biological Invasions Centre |
| Contributing office(s) | Coop Res Unit Atlanta |
| Description | 20 p. |
| First page | 127 |
| Last page | 146 |
| Country | United States |
| Other Geospatial | Lower Mississippi River Valley |