An improved empirical model for predicting postfire debris-flow volume in the western United States
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Abstract
Reliable estimates of debris-flow volume can be used to help predict the magnitude of debris-flow hazards following wildfire in the western United States. In this study, we compiled and used a database of 227 postfire debris-flow volumes that were collected across the western United States to develop a multiple linear regression model for predicting postfire debris-flow volume. We explored 36 predictor variables related to rainfall, terrain, and fire characteristics, and selected the model with the combination of variables that yielded the most accurate predictions of debris-flow volume. We evaluated model performance against the entire volume database, as well as against four subsets of volume data from southern California, the Intermountain West, the Southwest, and regions with limited volume data, such as northern California and Washington. We also compared model performance against 3 existing postfire debris-flow volume models that were developed for use in southern California, the Intermountain West, and the Southwest. We demonstrate that the new volume model performs as well as the regional models in the regions for which they were developed and outperforms existing models when applied to volumes from data-limited regions in the western United States. These results indicate that the debris-flow volume model introduced in this study can be used to improve postfire hazard assessments across the western United States, especially outside of southern California.
Suggested Citation
Gorr, A.N., Rengers, F.K., Barnhart, K.R., Thomas, M.A., and Kean, J.W., 2026, An improved empirical model for predicting postfire debris-flow volume in the western United States: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, v. 26, no. 5, p. 2111-2132, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2111-2026.
Study Area
| Publication type | Article |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
| Title | An improved empirical model for predicting postfire debris-flow volume in the western United States |
| Series title | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| DOI | 10.5194/nhess-26-2111-2026 |
| Volume | 26 |
| Issue | 5 |
| Publication Date | May 08, 2026 |
| Year Published | 2026 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | European Geosciences Union |
| Contributing office(s) | Geologic Hazards Science Center - Landslides / Earthquake Geology |
| Description | 22 p. |
| First page | 2111 |
| Last page | 2132 |
| Country | United States |
| State | Arizona, California, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Washington |