Western Grebe (Aechmophorus occidentalis) and Clark's Grebe (Aechmophorus clarkii) populations have declined across their range, and they are species of high conservation concern. Cascade Reservoir in central Idaho supports one of the largest breeding colonies of Aechmophorus grebes in North America (and the largest in Idaho), but few offspring are produced from the colony in most years. Low fecundity and little natal recruitment may be the proximate cause of Aechmophorus grebe population declines, but the ultimate cause of low recruitment is not known. One hypothesis for the low fecundity at Cascade Reservoir (and at other grebe colonies in the region) is that waves on freshwater breeding lakes inundate nests and cause pairs to abandon their nests. We tested that hypothesis by examining whether nest survival was negatively associated with changes in daily water level, daily peak wind speed and daily peak wind direction (i.e. winds that push water into the breeding colony). We also included daily mean temperature and daily total precipitation to evaluate a more general hypothesis that weather events caused nest failures. We used aerial imagery obtained from repeated drone flights to create encounter histories for 3888 Aechmophorus grebe nests to then estimate daily nest survival and evaluate whether daily water level, daily peak wind speed and daily peak wind direction (as predicted by the wind-driven wave hypothesis) were important causes of nest failure relative to other factors that commonly affect daily nest survival in birds. Nesting success was alarmingly low and we found some support for the wave inundation hypothesis; the results suggest that nesting attempts are more likely to fail on days with precipitation combined with winds blowing into the colony. Our results are the first to show that wind and precipitation affect the nest fate of Aechmophorus grebes.