Persistence of coral reef structures into the twenty-first century
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Abstract
Coral reefs provide important socioecological services but are vulnerable to climate change, which shifts the balance between the production and erosion of calcium carbonate (CaCO3). In this Review, we summarize understanding of reef accretion, describe the mechanisms of carbonate production and erosion, and consider the effects of future ocean warming and acidification on key reef-building and eroding taxa. The combined stressors of climate change substantially reduce net carbonate production, with a more pronounced effect on calcifying algae than corals. However, declining coral cover driven by marine heatwaves and mass bleaching will probably be the dominant determinant of future reef carbonate budgets, and thus only reefs with thermally adapted populations are predicted to maintain the ability to sustain positive CaCO3 production under climate change, even if calcareous algal cover increases. As carbonate budgets become net negative in the future, the longevity of pre-existing reef frameworks remains unknown and understudied owing to the timescales required to meaningfully assess framework removal rates. Improving estimates of the rates of biologically driven framework loss and chemical dissolution will also be important in better predicting future reef persistence. Key knowledge gaps exist in understanding the effects of deoxygenation on coral reefs, as well as the influence of climate change on understudied sediment-producing taxa such as foraminifera and tropical molluscs.
Suggested Citation
Cornwall, C.E., Timmerman, O., Andersson, A., Berbece, D.M., Branson, O., Comeau, S., Courtney, T.A., Donner, S.D., Enochs, I., Harvey, B.P., Isaak, A.L., Koch, H.E., Logan, C.A., Perry, C.T., Schoepf, V., Toth, L.T., and Webb, A., 2026, Persistence of coral reef structures into the twenty-first century: Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, v. 7, p. 151-161, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-026-00764-4.
| Publication type | Article |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
| Title | Persistence of coral reef structures into the twenty-first century |
| Series title | Nature Reviews Earth & Environment |
| DOI | 10.1038/s43017-026-00764-4 |
| Volume | 7 |
| Publication Date | February 19, 2026 |
| Year Published | 2026 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | Nature |
| Contributing office(s) | St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center |
| Description | 11 p. |
| First page | 151 |
| Last page | 161 |