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Range-wide Population Trend Analysis for Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus)—Updated 1960–2023

Data Report 1190
Ecosystems Mission Areas—Species Management Research Program and Land Management Research Program
Prepared in cooperation with the Bureau of Land Management
By: , , , , , , , , and 
https://doi.org/10.3133/dr1190

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Abstract

Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) are at the center of state and national land-use policies largely because of their unique life-history traits as an ecological indicator for health of sagebrush ecosystems. This updated population trend analysis provides state and federal land and wildlife managers with best-available science to help guide management and conservation plans aimed at benefitting sage-grouse populations. This analysis relied on previously published population trend modeling methodology from Coates and others (2021, 2022a) and incorporates population lek count data for 1960–2023. Included in this update are changes in terminology. Specifically, we now use the terms Period 1 (previously Long), Period 2 (previously Medium/Long), Period 3 (previously Medium), Period 4 (previously Short/Medium), Period 5 (previously Short), and Period 6 (previously Recent) to identify specific trends. State-space models estimated 2.8-percent average annual decline in sage-grouse populations between 1966 and 2021 (Period 1, six population oscillations) across their geographical range. Average annual decline among climate clusters for the same number of oscillations ranged between 2.1 and 3.1 percent. Cumulative declines were 41.1, 64.5, and 78.4 percent range-wide during Period 5 (19 years), Period 3 (35 years), and Period 1 (55 years), respectively. Population growth during 2022 and 2023 continue to point to 2021 as the most recent range-wide nadir.

Suggested Citation

Prochazka, B.G., Coates, P.S., Aldridge, C.L., O'Donnell, M.S., Edmunds, D.R., Monroe, A.P., Hanser, S.E., Wiechman, L.A., and Chenaille, M.P., 2024, Range-wide population trend analysis for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus)—Updated 1960–2023 (ver. 1.1, April 2024): U.S. Geological Survey Data Report 1190, 18 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/dr1190.

ISSN: 2771-9448 (online)

Table of Contents

  • Acknowledgments
  • Abstract
  • Introduction
  • Study Area
  • Data Compilation and Inputs
  • Range-wide Sage-Grouse Population Model
  • Range-Wide Population Trends
  • Climate Cluster Population Trends
  • Probability of Future Extirpation
  • Watches and Warnings from a Targeted Annual Warning System
  • References Cited
Publication type Report
Publication Subtype USGS Numbered Series
Title Range-wide population trend analysis for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus)—Updated 1960–2023
Series title Data Report
Series number 1190
DOI 10.3133/dr1190
Edition Version 1.0: Feb 2024; Version 1.1: Apr 2024
Year Published 2024
Language English
Publisher U.S. Geological Survey
Publisher location Reston, VA
Contributing office(s) Fort Collins Science Center, Western Ecological Research Center
Description Report: viii, 18 p., and data release
Online Only (Y/N) Y
Google Analytic Metrics Metrics page
Additional publication details