Earthquake outlook for the San Francisco Bay region 2014–2043

Fact Sheet 2016-3020
By: , and 
Edited by: Kate Jacques and Carolyn Donlin



Using information from recent earthquakes, improved mapping of active faults, and a new model for estimating earthquake probabilities, the 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities updated the 30-year earthquake forecast for California. They concluded that there is a 72 percent probability (or likelihood) of at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.7 or greater striking somewhere in the San Francisco Bay region before 2043. Earthquakes this large are capable of causing widespread damage; therefore, communities in the region should take simple steps to help reduce injuries, damage, and disruption, as well as accelerate recovery from these earthquakes.

Suggested Citation

Aagaard, B.T., Blair, J.L., Boatwright, J., Garcia, S.H., Harris, R.A., Michael, A.J., Schwartz, D.P., and DiLeo, J.S., 2016, Earthquake outlook for the San Francisco Bay region 2014–2043 (ver. 1.1, August 2016): U.S. Geological Survey Fact Sheet 2016–3020, 6 p.,

ISSN: 2327-6932 (online)

ISSN: 2327-6916 (print)

Study Area

Table of Contents

  • Earthquake Preparedness Helps
  • Why Does the San Francisco Bay Region Have Earthquakes?
  • How Do Scientists Calculate Earthquake Probability?
  • Probabilities of Earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay Region
  • What is the Likelihood That an Earthquake Will Affect You?
  • How Can You Protect Yourself and Your Family?
Publication type Report
Publication Subtype USGS Numbered Series
Title Earthquake outlook for the San Francisco Bay region 2014–2043
Series title Fact Sheet
Series number 2016-3020
DOI 10.3133/fs20163020
Year Published 2016
Language English
Publisher U.S. Geological Survey
Publisher location Reston, VA
Contributing office(s) Earthquake Science Center, San Francisco Bay-Delta
Description 6 p.
Country United States
State California
Other Geospatial San Francisco Bay
Online Only (Y/N) N
Additional Online Files (Y/N) N
Google Analytic Metrics Metrics page
Additional publication details