A-priori rupture models for Northern California Type-A faults
Links
- More information: USGS Index Page (html)
- Download citation as: RIS | Dublin Core
Abstract
This appendix describes how a-priori rupture models were developed for the northern California Type-A faults. As described in the main body of this report, and in Appendix G, “a-priori” models represent an initial estimate of the rate of single and multi-segment surface ruptures on each fault. Whether or not a given model is moment balanced (i.e., satisfies section slip-rate data) depends on assumptions made regarding the average slip on each segment in each rupture (which in turn depends on the chosen magnitude-area relationship). Therefore, for a given set of assumptions, or branch on the logic tree, the methodology of the present Working Group (WGCEP-2007) is to find a final model that is as close as possible to the a-priori model, in the least squares sense, but that also satisfies slip rate and perhaps other data. This is analogous the WGCEP- 2002 approach of effectively voting on the relative rate of each possible rupture, and then finding the closest moment-balance model (under a more limiting set of assumptions than adopted by the present WGCEP, as described in detail in Appendix G). The 2002 Working Group Report (WCCEP, 2003, referred to here as WGCEP-2002), created segmented earthquake rupture forecast models for all faults in the region, including some that had been designated as Type B faults in the NSHMP, 1996, and one that had not previously been considered. The 2002 National Seismic Hazard Maps used the values from WGCEP-2002 for all the faults in the region, essentially treating all the listed faults as Type A faults. As discussed in Appendix A, the current WGCEP found that there are a number of faults with little or no data on slip-per-event, or dates of previous earthquakes. As a result, the WGCEP recommends that faults with minimal available earthquake recurrence data: the Greenville, Mount Diablo, San Gregorio, Monte Vista-Shannon and Concord-Green Valley be modeled as Type B faults to be consistent with similarly poorly-known faults statewide. As a result, the modified segmented models discussed here only concern the San Andreas, Hayward-Rodgers Creek, and Calaveras faults.
Publication type | Report |
---|---|
Publication Subtype | USGS Numbered Series |
Title | A-priori rupture models for Northern California Type-A faults |
Series title | Open-File Report |
Series number | 2007-1437 |
Chapter | K |
DOI | 10.3133/ofr20071437K |
Edition | Version 1.0 |
Year Published | 2008 |
Language | English |
Publisher | U.S. Geological Survey |
Publisher location | Reston, VA |
Contributing office(s) | Earthquake Hazards Program, Earthquake Science Center, Geologic Hazards Science Center |
Description | iii, 7 p. |
Larger Work Type | Report |
Larger Work Subtype | USGS Numbered Series |
Larger Work Title | Appendix K in The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2 (UCERF 2) |
Google Analytic Metrics | Metrics page |