A projection of lesser prairie chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) populations range-wide

Open-File Report 2017-1071
Prepared in cooperation with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service
By: , and 



We built a population viability analysis (PVA) model to predict future population status of the lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus, LEPC) in four ecoregions across the species’ range. The model results will be used in the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service's (FWS) Species Status Assessment (SSA) for the LEPC. Our stochastic projection model combined demographic rate estimates from previously published literature with demographic rate estimates that integrate the influence of climate conditions. This LEPC PVA projects declining populations with estimated population growth rates well below 1 in each ecoregion regardless of habitat or climate change. These results are consistent with estimates of LEPC population growth rates derived from other demographic process models. Although the absolute magnitude of the decline is unlikely to be as low as modeling tools indicate, several different lines of evidence suggest LEPC populations are declining.

Suggested Citation

Cummings, J.W., Converse, S.J., Moore, C.T., Smith, D.R., Nichols, C.T., Allan, N.L., and O'Meilia, C.M., 2017, A projection of lesser prairie chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) populations range-wide: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2017-1071, 60 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20171071.

ISSN: 2331-1258 (online)

Study Area

Table of Contents

  • Abstract
  • Introduction
  • Lesser Prairie-Chicken Life Cycle
  • Lesser Prairie-Chicken Demographic Rates
  • Predictive Population Model
  • Future Scenarios
  • Sensitivity Analyses
  • Results
  • Discussion
  • Summary
  • Acknowledgments
  • References Cited
  • Appendixes A–D
Publication type Report
Publication Subtype USGS Numbered Series
Title A projection of lesser prairie chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) populations range-wide
Series title Open-File Report
Series number 2017-1071
DOI 10.3133/ofr20171071
Year Published 2017
Language English
Publisher U.S. Geological Survey
Publisher location Reston, VA
Contributing office(s) Coop Res Unit Seattle
Description vi, 60 p.
Country United States
State Colorado, Kansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas
Online Only (Y/N) Y
Google Analytic Metrics Metrics page
Additional publication details