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Potential Effects of Sea Level Rise and High Tide Flooding on Laterallus jamaicensis jamaicensis (Eastern Black Rail) Coastal Breeding Areas

Open-File Report 2021-1104-F
By:  and 
https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20211104F

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Abstract

Laterallus jamaicensis jamaicensis (eastern black rails; Gmelin, 1789) are facing increasing risk from flooding in coastal breeding habitats because of rising sea levels combined with standard high tide flooding. In this report, we examine regional differences in relative rates of sea level rise, days in the breeding season above historical high tide flooding thresholds, future inundation of current (2021) emergent wetlands, and potential marsh resiliency for the breeding distribution of the eastern black rail across the Atlantic and U.S. Gulf coasts. By midcentury (2050), two sea level rise scenarios (intermediate low and intermediate) indicate that areas analyzed in Texas and the Mid-Atlantic will experience at least minor flood levels for more than half of the breeding season. By the end of the century (2100), all tidal gages in the Atlantic and U.S. Gulf coasts are projected to experience at least moderate flood levels for most of the current (April–September) eastern black rail breeding season. In some areas like New Jersey, this translates to inundation for most of the emergent wetlands in the representative parishes and counties analyzed in this report. In other parts of the coastal distribution, estimates of increases in inundation are lower or more variable, stemming from differences in the elevation of existing emergent marsh, especially at the herbaceous wetland/woody wetland transition zone. Sea level rise and tidal flooding are not projected to pose an equal risk across the coastal distribution of the eastern black rail, leading to variation in risk of nest loss because of flooding. The degree to which these wetlands and birds will adapt to changing sea level and salinity depends on a range of factors including future expansion of developed areas and the ability of marsh areas to move inland. Restoration and active management of coastal wetland areas may be necessary to maintain appropriate breeding habitat.

Suggested Citation

Nikiel, C.A., and Lyons, M.P., 2025, Potential effects of sea level rise and high tide flooding on Laterallus jamaicensis jamaicensis (eastern black rail) coastal breeding areas: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2021–1104–F, 40 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20211104F.

ISSN: 2331-1258 (online)

Study Area

Table of Contents

  • Acknowledgments
  • Abstract
  • Purpose and Scope
  • Eastern Black Rail Ecology
  • Flooding Risk to Eastern Black Rail
  • Analysis Range and Habitat Selection
  • Relative Sea Level Rise and High Tide Flooding Levels
  • Marsh Resilience
  • Eastern Black Rail Coastal Flooding Risk Under Sea Level Rise
  • Adaptive Capacity
  • Compounding Stressors and Marsh Migration
  • Conclusion
  • References Cited
  • Appendix 1. Relative Sea Level Rise, High Tide Flooding Event Frequency, and Inundation Percentages at Tidal Gages and Analysis Counties
  • Appendix 2. Marsh Migration Data Analysis
Publication type Report
Publication Subtype USGS Numbered Series
Title Potential effects of sea level rise and high tide flooding on Laterallus jamaicensis jamaicensis (eastern black rail) coastal breeding areas
Series title Open-File Report
Series number 2021-1104
Chapter F
DOI 10.3133/ofr20211104F
Publication Date March 12, 2025
Year Published 2025
Language English
Publisher U.S. Geological Survey
Publisher location Reston, VA
Contributing office(s) Midwest Climate Adaptation Science Center
Description vii, 40 p.
Country United States
Other Geospatial Atlantic Coast, Gulf Coast
Online Only (Y/N) Y
Additional Online Files (Y/N) N
Google Analytic Metrics Metrics page
Additional publication details