The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989: Forecasts
Professional Paper
1550-B
Prepared in cooperation with the National Science Foundation
Links
- More information: USGS Index Page (html)
- Larger Work: This publication is Chapter B of The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989: Earthquake occurrence
- NGMDB Index Page: National Geologic Map Database Index Page (html)
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Abstract
The magnitude (Mw) 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake struck the San Francisco Bay region of central California at 5:04 p.m. P.d.t. on October 17, 1989, killing 62 people and generating billions of dollars in property damage. Scientists were not surprised by the occurrence of a destructive earthquake in this region and had, in fact, been attempting to forecast the location of the next large earthquake in the San Francisco Bay region for decades. This paper summarizes more than 20 scientifically based forecasts made before the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake for a large earthquake that might occur in the Loma Prieta area. The forecasts geographically closest to the actual earthquake primarily consisted of right-lateral strike-slip motion on the San Andreas Fault northwest of San Juan Bautista. Several of the forecasts did encompass the magnitude of the actual earthquake, and at least one approximately encompassed the along-strike rupture length. The 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake differed from most of the forecasted events in two ways: (1) it occurred with considerable dip-slip in addition to strike-slip motion, and (2) it was much deeper than expected.
Suggested Citation
Harris, R.A., 1998, The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989: Forecasts: U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 1550, iii, 28 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/pp1550B.
ISSN: 2330-7102 (online)
Study Area
| Publication type | Report |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | USGS Numbered Series |
| Title | The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989: Forecasts |
| Series title | Professional Paper |
| Series number | 1550 |
| Chapter | B |
| DOI | 10.3133/pp1550B |
| Year Published | 1998 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | U.S. Geological Survey |
| Contributing office(s) | Earthquake Hazards Program, Earthquake Science Center |
| Description | iii, 28 p. |
| Larger Work Type | Report |
| Larger Work Subtype | USGS Numbered Series |
| Larger Work Title | The Loma Prieta, California, earthquake of October 17, 1989: Earthquake occurrence (Professional Paper 1550) |
| Country | United States |
| State | California |
| Other Geospatial | San Francisco Bay region |