Chronology of postglacial eruptive activity and calculation of eruption probabilities for Medicine Lake volcano, northern California
Scientific Investigations Report
2007-5174-B
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Abstract
Medicine Lake volcano has had 4 eruptive episodes in its postglacial history (since 13,000 years ago) comprising 16 eruptions. Time intervals between events within the episodes are relatively short, whereas time intervals between the episodes are much longer. An updated radiocarbon chronology for these eruptions is presented that uses paleomagnetic data to constrain the choice of calibrated ages. This chronology is used with exponential, Weibull, and mixed-exponential probability distributions to model the data for time intervals between eruptions. The mixed exponential distribution is the best match to the data and provides estimates for the conditional probability of a future eruption given the time since the last eruption. The probability of an eruption at Medicine Lake volcano in the next year from today is 0.00028.
Suggested Citation
Nathenson, M., Donnelly-Nolan, J.M., Champion, D.E., and Lowenstern, J.B., 2007, Chronology of postglacial eruptive activity and calculation of eruption probabilities for Medicine Lake volcano, northern California: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2007-5174, iii, 10 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20075174B.
ISSN: 2328-0328 (online)
Study Area
| Publication type | Report |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | USGS Numbered Series |
| Title | Chronology of postglacial eruptive activity and calculation of eruption probabilities for Medicine Lake volcano, northern California |
| Series title | Scientific Investigations Report |
| Series number | 2007-5174 |
| Chapter | B |
| DOI | 10.3133/sir20075174B |
| Year Published | 2007 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | U.S. Geological Survey |
| Contributing office(s) | Volcano Hazards Program |
| Description | iii, 10 p. |
| Country | United States |
| State | California |
| Other Geospatial | Medicine Lake volcano |
| Online Only (Y/N) | Y |