Integrated watershed-scale response to climate change for selected basins across the United States
Scientific Investigations Report
2011-5077
By: Steven L. Markstrom, Lauren E. Hay, D. Christian Ward-Garrison, John C. Risley, William A. Battaglin, David M. Bjerklie, Katherine J. Chase, Daniel E. Christiansen, Robert W. Dudley, Randall J. Hunt, Kathryn M. Koczot, Mark C. Mastin, R. Steven Regan, Roland J. Viger, Kevin C. Vining, and John F. Walker
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Abstract
A study by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) evaluated the hydrologic response to different projected carbon emission scenarios of the 21st century using a hydrologic simulation model. This study involved five major steps: (1) setup, calibrate and evaluated the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) model in 14 basins across the United States by local USGS personnel; (2) acquire selected simulated carbon emission scenarios from the World Climate Research Programme's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project; (3) statistical downscaling of these scenarios to create PRMS input files which reflect the future climatic conditions of these scenarios; (4) generate PRMS projections for the carbon emission scenarios for the 14 basins; and (5) analyze the modeled hydrologic response. This report presents an overview of this study, details of the methodology, results from the 14 basin simulations, and interpretation of these results. A key finding is that the hydrological response of the different geographical regions of the United States to potential climate change may be different, depending on the dominant physical processes of that particular region. Also considered is the tremendous amount of uncertainty present in the carbon emission scenarios and how this uncertainty propagates through the hydrologic simulations.
Suggested Citation
Markstrom, S., Hay, L.E., Ward-Garrison, D.C., Risley, J.C., Battaglin, W.A., Bjerklie, D.M., Chase, K.J., Christiansen, D.E., Dudley, R.W., Hunt, R.J., Koczot, K.M., Mastin, M.C., Regan, R.S., Viger, R., Vining, K.C., and Walker, J.F., 2012, Integrated watershed-scale response to climate change for selected basins across the United States: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2011-5077, x, 134 p.; Appendix, https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20115077.
ISSN: 2328-0328 (online)
| Publication type | Report |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | USGS Numbered Series |
| Title | Integrated watershed-scale response to climate change for selected basins across the United States |
| Series title | Scientific Investigations Report |
| Series number | 2011-5077 |
| DOI | 10.3133/sir20115077 |
| Year Published | 2012 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | U.S. Geological Survey |
| Publisher location | Reston, VA |
| Contributing office(s) | Branch of Regional Research-Central Region |
| Description | x, 134 p.; Appendix |
| First page | i |
| Last page | 143 |
| Country | United States |
| Online Only (Y/N) | Y |
| Additional Online Files (Y/N) | N |