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The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Earthquake Hazards

Scientific Investigations Report 2017-5013-A–H
Prepared in cooperation with the California Geological Survey
Edited by: Shane T. Detweiler and Anne M. Wein
https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20175013v1

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Abstract

The HayWired scenario is a hypothetical earthquake sequence that is being used to better understand hazards for the San Francisco Bay region during and after an earthquake of magnitude 7 on the Hayward Fault. The 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities calculated that there is a 33-percent likelihood of a large (magnitude 6.7 or greater) earthquake occurring on the Hayward Fault within three decades. A large Hayward Fault earthquake will produce strong ground shaking, permanent displacement of the Earth’s surface, landslides, liquefaction (soils becoming liquid-like during shaking), and subsequent fault slip, known as afterslip, and earthquakes, known as aftershocks. 

The most recent large earthquake on the Hayward Fault occurred on October 21, 1868, and it ruptured the southern part of the fault. The 1868 magnitude-6.8 earthquake occurred when the San Francisco Bay region had far fewer people, buildings, and infrastructure (roads, communication lines, and utilities) than it does today, yet the strong ground shaking from the earthquake still caused significant building damage and loss of life. The next large Hayward Fault earthquake is anticipated to affect thousands of structures and disrupt the lives of millions of people. Earthquake risk in the San Francisco Bay region has been greatly reduced as a result of previous concerted efforts; for example, tens of billions of dollars of investment in strengthening infrastructure was motivated in large part by the 1989 magnitude 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake. To build on efforts to reduce earthquake risk in the San Francisco Bay region, the HayWired earthquake scenario comprehensively examines the earthquake hazards to help provide the crucial scientific information that the San Francisco Bay region can use to prepare for the next large earthquake, The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Earthquake Hazards volume describes the strong ground shaking modeled in the scenario and the hazardous movements of the Earth’s surface that the fault rupture and shaking will activate.

Suggested Citation

Detweiler, S.T., and Wein, A.M., eds., 2017, The HayWired earthquake scenario—Earthquake hazards (ver. 1.2, December 2018): U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2017–5013–A–H, 126 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20175013v1.

ISSN: 2328-0328 (online)

Study Area

Publication type Report
Publication Subtype USGS Numbered Series
Title The HayWired earthquake scenario—Earthquake hazards
Series title Scientific Investigations Report
Series number 2017-5013
Chapter A–H
DOI 10.3133/sir20175013v1
Edition Version 1.0: April 2017; Version 1.1: March 2018; Version 1.2: December 2018
Year Published 2017
Language English
Publisher U.S Geological Survey
Publisher location Reston, VA
Contributing office(s) Earthquake Science Center
Description xii, 126 p.
Larger Work Type Report
Larger Work Subtype USGS Numbered Series
Larger Work Title The HayWired earthquake scenario
Country United States
State California
Other Geospatial Hayward Fault
Online Only (Y/N) Y
Additional Online Files (Y/N) Y
Google Analytic Metrics Metrics page
Additional publication details