Predicting arsenic in drinking water wells of the Central Valley, California
Joseph D. Ayotte, Bernard T. Nolan, JoAnn M. Gronberg
2016, Environmental Science & Technology (50) 7555-7563
Probabilities of arsenic in groundwater at depths used for domestic and public supply in the Central Valley of California are predicted using weak-learner ensemble models (boosted regression trees, BRT) and more traditional linear models (logistic regression, LR). Both methods captured major processes that affect arsenic concentrations, such as the chemical...
Large herbivores surf waves of green-up during spring
Jerod Merkle, Kevin L. Monteith, Ellen O. Aikens, Matthew M. Hayes, Kent Hersey, Arthur D. Middleton, Brendan Oates, Hall Sawyer, Brandon Scurlock, Matthew J. Kauffman
2016, Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences (283) 1-8
The green wave hypothesis (GWH) states that migrating animals should track or ‘surf’ high-quality forage at the leading edge of spring green-up. To index such high-quality forage, recent work proposed the instantaneous rate of green-up (IRG), i.e. rate of change in the normalized difference vegetation index over time. Despite this...
Reproduction in moose at their southern range limit
Joel S. Ruprecht, Kent Hersey, Konrad Hafen, Kevin L. Monteith, Nicholas J. DeCesare, Matthew J. Kauffman, Daniel R. MacNulty
2016, Journal of Mammalogy (97) 1355-1365
Reproduction is a critical fitness component in large herbivores. Biogeographic models predict that populations occurring at the edges of the range may have compromised reproductive rates because of inferior habitat at range peripheries. When reproductive rates are chronically low, ungulate populations may lack the resiliency to rebound quickly after periods...
Variability in the sensitivity among model simulations of permafrost and carbon dynamics in the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009
A. David McGuire, Charles Koven, David M. Lawrence, Joy S. Clein, Jiangyang Xia, Christian Beer, Eleanor J. Burke, Guangsheng Chen, Xiaodong Chen, Christine Delire, Elchin Jafarov, Andrew H. MacDougall, Sergey S. Marchenko, Dmitry J. Nicolsky, Shushi Peng, Annette Rinke, Kazuyuki Saito, Wenxin Zhang, Ramdane Alkama, Theodore J. Bohn, Philippe Ciais, Bertrand Decharme, Altug Ekici, Isabelle Gouttevin, Tomohiro Hajima, Daniel J. Hayes, Duoying Ji, Gerhard Krinner, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, Yiqi Luo, Paul A. Miller, John C. Moore, Vladimir Romanovsky, Christina Schädel, Kevin Schaefer, Edward A.G. Schuur, Benjamin Smith, Tetsuo Sueyoshi, Qianlai Zhuang
2016, Global Biogeochemical Cycles (30) 1015-1037
A significant portion of the large amount of carbon (C) currently stored in soils of the permafrost region in the Northern Hemisphere has the potential to be emitted as the greenhouse gases CO2and CH4 under a warmer climate. In this study we evaluated the variability in the sensitivity of permafrost and...
Potential carbon emissions dominated by carbon dioxide from thawed permafrost soils
Christina Schädel, Martin K.-F. Bader, Edward A.G. Schuur, Christina Biasi, Rosvel Bracho, Petr Capek, Sarah De Baets, Katerina Diakova, Jessica Ernakovich, Cristian Estop-Aragones, David E. Graham, Iain P. Hartley, Colleen M. Iversen, Evan S. Kane, Christian Knoblauch, Massimo Lupascu, Pertti J. Martikainen, Susan M. Natali, Richard J. Norby, Jonathan A. O’Donnell, Taniya Roy Chowdhury, Hana Santruckova, Gaius Shaver, Victoria L. Sloan, Claire C. Treat, Merritt R. Turetsky, Mark P. Waldrop, Kimberly P. Wickland
2016, Nature Climate Change (6) 950-953
Increasing temperatures in northern high latitudes are causing permafrost to thaw, making large amounts of previously frozen organic matter vulnerable to microbial decomposition. Permafrost thaw also creates a fragmented landscape of drier and wetter soil conditions that determine the amount and form (carbon dioxide (CO2), or methane (CH4)) of carbon (C) released...
Decision-making for foot-and-mouth disease control: Objectives matter
William J. M. Probert, Katriona Shea, Christopher J. Fonnesbeck, Michael C. Runge, Tim E. Carpenter, Salome Durr, M. Graeme Garner, Neil Harvey, Mark A. Stevenson, Colleen T. Webb, Marleen Werkman, Michael J. Tildesley, Matthew J. Ferrari
2016, Epidemics (15) 10-19
Formal decision-analytic methods can be used to frame disease control problems, the first step of which is to define a clear and specific objective. We demonstrate the imperative of framing clearly-defined management objectives in finding optimal control actions for control of disease outbreaks. We illustrate an analysis that can be...
Climate change effects on North American inland fish populations and assemblages
Abigail J. Lynch, Bonnie Myers, Cindy Chu, Lisa A. Eby, Jeffrey A. Falke, Ryan P. Kovach, Trevor J. Krabbenhoft, Thomas J. Kwak, John Lyons, Craig P. Paukert, James E. Whitney
2016, Fisheries (41) 346-361
Climate is a critical driver of many fish populations, assemblages, and aquatic communities. However, direct observational studies of climate change impacts on North American inland fishes are rare. In this synthesis, we (1) summarize climate trends that may influence North American inland fish populations and assemblages, (2) compile 31 peer-reviewed...
Infrastructure system restoration planning using evolutionary algorithms
Steven Corns, Suzanna K. Long, Thomas G. Shoberg
2016, INCOSE International Symposium (26) 1947-1956
This paper presents an evolutionary algorithm to address restoration issues for supply chain interdependent critical infrastructure. Rapid restoration of infrastructure after a large-scale disaster is necessary to sustaining a nation's economy and security, but such long-term restoration has not been investigated as thoroughly as initial rescue and recovery efforts. A...
Actively heated high-resolution fiber-optic-distributed temperature sensing to quantify streambed flow dynamics in zones of strong groundwater upwelling
Martin A. Briggs, Sean F. Buckley, Amvrossios C. Bagtzoglou, Dale D. Werkema, John W. Lane Jr.
2016, Water Resources Research (52) 5179-5194
Zones of strong groundwater upwelling to streams enhance thermal stability and moderate thermal extremes, which is particularly important to aquatic ecosystems in a warming climate. Passive thermal tracer methods used to quantify vertical upwelling rates rely on downward conduction of surface temperature signals. However, moderate to high groundwater flux rates...
Discovery of alunite in Cross crater, Terra Sirenum, Mars: Evidence for acidic, sulfurous waters
Bethany L. Ehlmann, Gregg A. Swayze, Ralph E. Milliken, John F. Mustard, Roger N. Clark, Scott L. Murchie, George N. Breit, James J. Wray, Brigitte Gondet, Francois Poulet, John Carter, Wendy M. Calvin, William Benzel, Kimberly D. Seelos
2016, American Mineralogist (101) 1527-1542
Cross crater is a 65 km impact crater, located in the Noachian highlands of the Terra Sirenum region of Mars (30°S, 158°W), which hosts aluminum phyllosilicate deposits first detected by the Observatoire pour la Minéralogie, L’Eau, les Glaces et l’Activitié (OMEGA) imaging spectrometer on Mars Express. Using high-resolution data from...
Ungulate browsers promote herbaceous layer diversity in logged temperate forests
Edward K. Faison, Stephen DeStefano, David R. Foster, Glenn Motzkin, Josh Rapp
2016, Ecology and Evolution (6) 4591-4602
Ungulates are leading drivers of plant communities worldwide, with impacts linked to animal density, disturbance and vegetation structure, and site productivity. Many ecosystems have more than one ungulate species; however, few studies have specifically examined the combined effects of two or more species on plant communities. We examined the extent...
Preface: Impacts of extreme climate events and disturbances on carbon dynamics
Jingfeng Xiao, Shuguang Liu, Paul C. Stoy
2016, Biogeosciences (13) 3665-3675
The impacts of extreme climate events and disturbances (ECE&D) on the carbon cycle have received growing attention in recent years. This special issue showcases a collection of recent advances in understanding the impacts of ECE&D on carbon cycling. Notable advances include quantifying how harvesting activities impact forest structure, carbon pool...
Probability distributions of bed load particle velocities, accelerations, hop distances, and travel times informed by Jaynes's principle of maximum entropy
David Furbish, Mark Schmeeckle, Rina Schumer, Siobhan Fathel
2016, Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface (121) 1373-1390
We describe the most likely forms of the probability distributions of bed load particle velocities, accelerations, hop distances, and travel times, in a manner that formally appeals to inferential statistics while honoring mechanical and kinematic constraints imposed by equilibrium transport conditions. The analysis is based on E. Jaynes's elaboration of...
Accretionary lapilli: what’s holding them together?
Paul M. Adams, David K. Lynch, David C. Buesch
2016, Conference Paper, Going LOCO: Investigations along the Lower Colorado River: 2016 Desert Symposium Field Guide and Proceedings
Accretionary lapilli from Tagus cone, Isla Isabela, Galápagos were analyzed using scanning electron microscope (SEM) and energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS) techniques. Our main findings are (1) the lapilli formed and hardened in a few minutes while still aloft in the dispersing eruption column. (2) Palagonite rinds developed first on the...
Potential evapotranspiration and continental drying
Paul C.D. Milly, Krista A. Dunne
2016, Nature Climate Change (6) 946-949
By various measures (drought area and intensity, climatic aridity index, and climatic water deficits), some observational analyses have suggested that much of the Earth’s land has been drying during recent decades, but such drying seems inconsistent with observations of dryland greening and decreasing pan evaporation. ‘Offline’ analyses of climate-model...
Finite-element modelling of physics-based hillslope hydrology, Keith Beven, and beyond
Keith Loague, Brian A. Ebel
2016, Hydrological Processes (30) 2432-2437
Keith Beven is a voice of reason on the intelligent use of models and the subsequent acknowledgement/assessment of the uncertainties associated with environmental simula-tion. With several books and hundreds of papers, Keith’s work is widespread, well known, and highly referenced. Four of Keith’s most notable contributions are the iconic TOPMODEL...
Contrasts between channels and backwaters in a large, floodplain river: Testing our understanding of nutrient cycling, phytoplankton abundance, and suspended solids dynamics
Jeffrey N. Houser
2016, Freshwater Science (35) 457-473
In floodplain rivers, variability in hydraulic connectivity interacts with biogeochemistry to determine the distribution of suspended and dissolved substances. Nutrient, chlorophyll a, and suspended solids data spanning longitudinal (5 study reaches across 1300 river km), lateral (main channel and backwaters), and temporal (1994–2011) gradients in the Upper Mississippi River (UMR)...
Parallelization of the TRIGRS model for rainfall-induced landslides using the message passing interface
M. Alvioli, R.L. Baum
2016, Environmental Modelling and Software (81) 122-135
We describe a parallel implementation of TRIGRS, the Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability Model for the timing and distribution of rainfall-induced shallow landslides. We have parallelized the four time-demanding execution modes of TRIGRS, namely both the saturated and unsaturated model with finite and infinite soil depth options, within...
Bayesian nitrate source apportionment to individual groundwater wells in the Central Valley by use of elemental and isotopic tracers
Katherine M Ransom, Mark N. Grote, Amanda Deinhart, Gary Eppich, Carol Kendall, Matthew E. Sanborn, A. Kate Sounders, Joshua Wimpenny, Qing-zhu Yin, Megan B. Young, Thomas Harter
2016, Water Resources Research (52) 5577-5597
Groundwater quality is a concern in alluvial aquifers that underlie agricultural areas, such as in the San Joaquin Valley of California. Shallow domestic wells (less than 150 m deep) in agricultural areas are often contaminated by nitrate. Agricultural and rural nitrate sources include dairy manure, synthetic fertilizers, and septic waste....
Factors that affect parasitism of black-tailed prairie dogs by fleas
David A. Eads, John L. Hoogland
2016, Ecosphere (7) 1-12
Fleas (Insecta: Siphonaptera) are hematophagous ectoparasites that feed on vertebrate hosts. Fleas can reduce the fitness of hosts by interfering with immune responses, disrupting adaptive behaviors, and transmitting pathogens. The negative effects of fleas on hosts are usually most pronounced when fleas attain high densities. In lab studies, fleas desiccate...
Fault zone characteristics and basin complexity in the southern Salton Trough, California
Patricia Persaud, Yiran Ma, Joann M. Stock, John A. Hole, Gary S. Fuis, Liang Han
2016, Geology (44) 747-750
Ongoing oblique slip at the Pacific–North America plate boundary in the Salton Trough produced the Imperial Valley (California, USA), a seismically active area with deformation distributed across a complex network of exposed and buried faults. To better understand the shallow crustal structure in this region and the connectivity of faults...
Community fisheries in eastern South Dakota: Angler demographics, use, and factors influencing satisfaction
Michael J. Greiner, David O. Lucchesi, Steven R. Chipps, Larry M. Gigliotti
2016, Human Dimensions of Wildlife (21) 254-263
We surveyed anglers on five community fishing lakes near Brookings, South Dakota to assess angler use and satisfaction. The community lakes attracted younger anglers when compared to statewide and national averages. Overall, satisfaction was generally high (74%) among anglers fishing community lakes. Logistic regression analysis showed that harvest rate, anglers...
National Park Service Vegetation Mapping Inventory Program: Natchez Trace Parkway vegetation mapping project report
Kevin D. Hop, Andrew C. Strassman, Carl Nordman, Milo Pyne, Rickie White, Joseph Jakusz, Erin E. Hoy, Jennifer Dieck
2016, Natural Resource Report NPS/GULN/NRR—2016/1255
The National Park Service (NPS) Vegetation Mapping Inventory (VMI) Program is an effort to classify, describe, and map existing vegetation of national park units for the NPS Natural Resource Inventory and Monitoring (I&M) Program. The NPS VMI Program is managed by the NPS I&M Division and provides baseline vegetation information...
Age, sex and social influences on adult survival in the cooperatively breeding Karoo Scrub-robin
Penn Lloyd, Thomas E. Martin, Andrew Taylor, Anne Braae, Res Altwegg
2016, Emu (116) 394-401
Among cooperatively breeding species, helpers are hypothesised to increase the survival of breeders by reducing breeder workload in offspring care and increased group vigilance against predators. Furthermore, parental nepotism or other benefits of group living may provide a survival benefit to young that delay dispersal to help. We tested these...
Comparison of methods to monitor the distribution and impacts of unauthorized travel routes in a border park
Todd C. Esque, Richard D. Inman, Kenneth E. Nussear, Robert Webb, M.M. Girard, J. DeGayner
2016, Natural Areas Journal (36) 248-258
The distribution and abundance of human-caused disturbances vary greatly through space and time and are cause for concern among land stewards in natural areas of the southwestern border-lands between the USA and Mexico. Human migration and border protection along the international boundary create Unauthorized Trail and Road (UTR) networks across...
