Model averaging and muddled multimodel inferences
Brian S. Cade
2015, Ecology (96) 2370-7382
Three flawed practices associated with model averaging coefficients for predictor variables in regression models commonly occur when making multimodel inferences in analyses of ecological data. Model-averaged regression coefficients based on Akaike information criterion (AIC) weights have been recommended for addressing model uncertainty but they are not valid, interpretable estimates of...
Linking resource selection and mortality modeling for population estimation of mountain lions in Montana
Hugh S. Robinson, Toni K. Ruth, Justin A. Gude, David Choate, Rich DeSimone, Mark Hebblewhite, Marc R. Matchett, Michael S. Mitchell, Kerry Murphy, Jim Williams
2015, Ecological Modelling (312) 11-25
To be most effective, the scale of wildlife management practices should match the range of a particular species’ movements. For this reason, combined with our inability to rigorously or regularly census mountain lion populations, several authors have suggested that mountain lions be managed in a source-sink or metapopulation framework. We...
Grasshopper sparrow reproductive success and habitat use on reclaimed surface mines varies by age of reclamation
Petra Wood, Frank K. Ammer
2015, Wildlife Society Bulletin (39) 512-520
We studied 3 mountaintop mining–valley fill (MTMVF) complexes in southern West Virginia, USA to examine grasshopper sparrow (Ammodramus savannarum pratensis) demographic response to different age classes of mine land reclamation. For 71 nests monitored during the 2001–2002 breeding seasons, overall nest success (36%) was within the range of nest success...
Legacy effects of no-analogue disturbances alter plant community diversity and composition in semi-arid sagebrush steppe
Julie Ripplinger, Janet Franklin, Thomas C. Edwards Jr.
2015, Journal of Vegetation Science (26) 923-933
Questions(i) What role does the type of managed disturbance play in structuring sagebrush steppe plant communities? (ii) How does the composition of post-disturbance plant communities change with time since disturbance? (iii) Does plant community diversity change over time following managed disturbance?LocationField study within the sagebrush steppe ecosystem. Rich County, Utah,...
A food web modeling analysis of a Midwestern, USA eutrophic lake dominated by non-native Common Carp and Zebra Mussels
Michael E. Colvin, Clay Pierce, Timothy W. Stewart
2015, Ecological Modelling (312) 26-40
Food web modeling is recognized as fundamental to understanding the complexities of aquatic systems. Ecopath is the most common mass-balance model used to represent food webs and quantify trophic interactions among groups. We constructed annual Ecopath models for four consecutive years during the first half-decade of a zebra mussel invasion...
Aquaculture disturbance impacts the diet but not ecological linkages of a ubiquitous predatory fish
Kathleen C. McPeek, P. Sean McDonald, Glenn VanBlaricom
2015, Estuaries and Coasts (38) 1520-1534
Aquaculture operations are a frequent and prominent cause of anthropogenic disturbance to marine and estuarine communities and may alter species composition and abundance. However, little is known about how such disturbances affect trophic linkages or ecosystem functions. In Puget Sound, Washington, aquaculture of the Pacific geoduck clam (Panopea...
Optimal population prediction of sandhill crane recruitment based on climate-mediated habitat limitations
Brian D. Gerber, William L. Kendall, Mevin Hooten, James A. Dubovsky, Roderick C. Drewien
2015, Journal of Animal Ecology (84) 1299-1310
Prediction is fundamental to scientific enquiry and application; however, ecologists tend to favour explanatory modelling. We discuss a predictive modelling framework to evaluate ecological hypotheses and to explore novel/unobserved environmental scenarios to assist conservation and management decision-makers. We apply this framework to develop an optimal predictive model...
Amphibole reaction rims as a record of pre-eruptive magmatic heating: An experimental approach
S. H. De Angelis, J. Larsen, Michelle L. Coombs, A. Dunn, Leslie A. Hayden
2015, Earth and Planetary Science Letters (426) 235-245
Magmatic minerals record the pre-eruptive timescales of magma ascent and mixing in crustal reservoirs and conduits. Investigations of the mineral records of magmatic processes are fundamental to our understanding of what controls eruption style, as ascent rates and magma mixing processes are well known to control and/or trigger potentially hazardous...
The climate space of fire regimes in north-western North America
Ellen Whitman, Enric Batllori, Marc-Andre Parisien, Carol Miller, Jonathan D. Coop, Meg A. Krawchuk, Geneva W. Chong, Sandra L. Haire
2015, Journal of Biogeography (42) 1736-1749
Aim. Studies of fire activity along environmental gradients have been undertaken, but the results of such studies have yet to be integrated with fire-regime analysis. We characterize fire-regime components along climate gradients and a gradient of human influence. Location. We focus on a climatically diverse region of north-western North America...
Magma extrusion during the Ubinas 2013–2014 eruptive crisis based on satellite thermal imaging (MIROVA) and ground-based monitoring
Diego Coppola, Orlando Macedo, Domingo Ramos, Anthony Finizola, Dario Delle Donne, Jose del Carpio, Randall A. White, Wendy McCausland, Riky Centeno, Marco Rivera, Fredy Apaza, Beto Ccallata, Wilmer Chilo, Corrado Cigolini, Marco Laiolo, Ivonne Lazarte, Roger Machaca, Pablo Masias, Mayra Ortega, Nino Puma, Edu Taipe
2015, Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research (302) 199-210
After 3 years of mild gases emissions, the Ubinas volcano entered in a new eruptive phase on September 2nd, 2013. The MIROVA system (a space-based volcanic hot-spot detection system), allowed us to detect in near real time the thermal emissions associated with the eruption and provided early evidence of magma...
Mineral Resource of the Month: Bromine
Emily Schnebele
2015, Earth (September 2015)
Bromine, along with mercury, is one of only two elements that are liquid at room temperature. Bromine is a highly volatile and corrosive reddish-brown liquid that evaporates easily and converts to a metal at extreme pressures — above about 540,000 times atmospheric pressure. Bromine occurs in seawater, evaporitic (salt) lakes...
On critiques of “Stationarity is dead: Whither water management?”
Paul C.D. Milly, Julio L. Betancourt, Malin Falkenmark, Robert M. Hirsch, Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, Ronald J. Stouffer, Michael D. Dettinger, Valentina Krysanova
2015, Water Resources Research (51) 7785-7789
We review and comment upon some themes in the recent stream of critical commentary on the assertion that “stationarity is dead,” attempting to clear up some misunderstandings; to note points of agreement; to elaborate on matters in dispute; and to share further relevant thoughts....
Development of twelve microsatellite loci in the red tree corals Primnoa resedaeformis and Primnoa pacifica
Cheryl L. Morrison, Marcus J. Springmann, Kelsey Shroades, Robert P. Stone
2015, Conservation Genetics Resources (7) 763-765
A suite of tetra-, penta-, and hexa-nucleotide microsatellite loci were developed from Roche 454 pyrosequencing data for the cold-water octocorals Primnoa resedaeformis and P. pacifica. Twelve of 98 primer sets tested consistently amplified in 30 P. resedaeformis samples from Baltimore...
Heat flux from magmatic hydrothermal systems related to availability of fluid recharge
M. C. Harvey, J.V. Rowland, G. Chiodini, C.F. Rissmann, S. Bloomberg, P.A. Hernandez, A. Mazot, F. Viveiros, Cynthia A. Werner
2015, Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research (302) 225-236
Magmatic hydrothermal systems are of increasing interest as a renewable energy source. Surface heat flux indicates system resource potential, and can be inferred from soil CO2 flux measurements and fumarole gas chemistry. Here we compile and reanalyze results from previous CO2 flux surveys worldwide to compare heat flux from a...
Camera traps and mark-resight models: The value of ancillary data for evaluating assumptions
Arielle W. Parsons, Theodore R. Simons, Kenneth H. Pollock, Michael K. Stoskopf, Jessica J. Stocking, Allan F. O’Connell
2015, Journal of Wildlife Management (79) 1163-1172
Unbiased estimators of abundance and density are fundamental to the study of animal ecology and critical for making sound management decisions. Capture–recapture models are generally considered the most robust approach for estimating these parameters but rely on a number of assumptions that are often violated but rarely validated. Mark-resight models,...
An evaluation of a bed instability index as an indicator of habitat quality in mountain streams of the northwestern United States
Paul C. Kusnierz, Christopher M. Holbrook, David L. Feldman
2015, Environmental Monitoring and Assessment
Managers of aquatic resources benefit from indices of habitat quality that are reproducible and easy to measure, demonstrate a link between habitat quality and biota health, and differ between human-impacted (i.e., managed) and reference (i.e., nonimpacted or minimally impacted) conditions. The instability index (ISI) is an easily measured index that...
Groundwater quality data in 15 GAMA study units: results from the 2006–10 Initial sampling and the 2009–13 resampling of wells, California GAMA Priority Basin Project
Robert Kent
2015, Data Series 919
The Priority Basin Project (PBP) of the Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment (GAMA) program was developed in response to the Groundwater Quality Monitoring Act of 2001 and is being conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the California State Water Resources Control Board (SWRCB). From May...
Soil carbon storage following road removal and timber harvesting in redwood forests
Joseph Seney, Mary Ann Madej
2015, Earth Surface Processes and Landforms (40) 2084-2092
Soil carbon storage plays a key role in the global carbon cycle and is important for sustaining forest productivity. Removal of unpaved forest roads has the potential for increasing carbon storage in soils on forested terrain as treated sites revegetate and soil properties improve on the previously compacted road surfaces....
Tree mortality from drought, insects, and their interactions in a changing climate
William R.L. Anderegg, Jeffrey A. Hicke, Rosie A. Fisher, Craig D. Allen, Juliann E. Aukema, Barbara Bentz, Sharon Hood, Jeremy W. Lichstein, Alison K. Macalady, Nate G. McDowell, Yude Pan, Kenneth Raffa, Anna Sala, John D. Shaw, Nathan L. Stephenson, Christina L. Tague, Melanie Zeppel
2015, New Phytologist (208) 674-683
Climate change is expected to drive increased tree mortality through drought, heat stress, and insect attacks, with manifold impacts on forest ecosystems. Yet, climate-induced tree mortality and biotic disturbance agents are largely absent from process-based ecosystem models. Using data sets from the western USA and associated studies, we present a...
Baseline Coastal Oblique Aerial Photographs Collected from Navarre Beach, Florida, to Breton Island, Louisiana,
September 1, 2014
Karen L. M. Morgan
2015, Data Series 952
Summary The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), as part of the National Assessment for Coastal Change Hazards Project, conducts baseline and storm response photography missions to document and understand the changes in vulnerability of the Nation's coasts to extreme storms (Morgan, 2009). On September...
Volcano monitoring from space
Michael P. Poland
2015, Book chapter, Global Volcanic Hazards and Risk
Unlike many natural hazards, volcanoes usually give warnings of impending eruptions that can be detected from hours to years prior to any hazardous activity [Sparks et al., 2012]. The Eyjafjallajökull eruption, for example, was preceded by several discrete episodes of subsurface magma accumulation that highlighted the potential for future...
Modeling the complex impacts of timber harvests to find optimal management regimes for Amazon tidal floodplain forests
Lucas B. Fortini, Wendell P. Cropper, Daniel J. Zarin
2015, PLoS ONE (10) 1-17
At the Amazon estuary, the oldest logging frontier in the Amazon, no studies have comprehensively explored the potential long-term population and yield consequences of multiple timber harvests over time. Matrix population modeling is one way to simulate long-term impacts of tree harvests, but this approach has often ignored common impacts...
Late Pleistocene ages for the most recent volcanism and glacial-pluvial deposits at Big Pine volcanic field, California, USA, from cosmogenic 36Cl dating
Jorge A. Vazquez, Jeff M Woolford
2015, Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems (16) 1-17
The Big Pine volcanic field is one of several Quaternary volcanic fields that poses a potential volcanic hazard along the tectonically active Owens Valley of east-central California, and whose lavas are interbedded with deposits from Pleistocene glaciations in the Sierra Nevada Range. Previous geochronology indicates an ∼1.2 Ma history of...
Controls on the breach geometry and flood hydrograph during overtopping of non-cohesive earthen dams
Joseph S. Walder, Richard M. Iverson, Jonathan W. Godt, Matthew Logan, Stephen A. Solovitz
2015, Water Resources Research (51) 6701-6724
Overtopping failure of non-cohesive earthen dams was investigated in 13 large-scale experiments with dams built of compacted, damp, fine-grained sand. Breaching was initiated by cutting a notch across the dam crest and allowing water escaping from a finite upstream reservoir to form its own channel. The channel developed a stepped...
Predicting watershed post-fire sediment yield with the InVEST sediment retention model: Accuracy and uncertainties
Joel B. Sankey, Jason McVay, Jason R. Kreitler, Todd Hawbaker, Nicole Vaillant, Scott Lowe
2015, Conference Paper
Increased sedimentation following wildland fire can negatively impact water supply and water quality. Understanding how changing fire frequency, extent, and location will affect watersheds and the ecosystem services they supply to communities is of great societal importance in the western USA and throughout the world. In this work we assess...
