Uncertainty, variability, and earthquake physics in ground‐motion prediction equations
Annemarie S. Baltay Sundstrom, Thomas C. Hanks, Norm A. Abrahamson
2017, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (107) 1754-1772
Residuals between ground‐motion data and ground‐motion prediction equations (GMPEs) can be decomposed into terms representing earthquake source, path, and site effects. These terms can be cast in terms of repeatable (epistemic) residuals and the random (aleatory) components. Identifying the repeatable residuals leads to a GMPE with reduced uncertainty for a...
Future research needs involving pathogens in groundwater
Scott A. Bradford, Ronald W. Harvey
2017, Hydrogeology Journal (25) 931-938
Contamination of groundwater by enteric pathogens has commonly been associated with disease outbreaks. Proper management and treatment of pathogen sources are important prerequisites for preventing groundwater contamination. However, non-point sources of pathogen contamination are frequently difficult to identify, and existing approaches for pathogen detection are costly and only provide semi-quantitative...
Effects of deep basins on structural collapse during large subduction earthquakes
Nasser A. Marafi, Marc O. Eberhard, Jeffrey W. Berman, Erin A. Wirth, Arthur D. Frankel
2017, Earthquake Spectra (33) 963-997
Deep sedimentary basins are known to increase the intensity of ground motions, but this effect is implicitly considered in seismic hazard maps used in U.S. building codes. The basin amplification of ground motions from subduction earthquakes is particularly important in the Pacific Northwest, where the hazard at long periods is...
Deposition of mercury in forests across a montane elevation gradient: Elevational and seasonal patterns in methylmercury inputs and production
Jacqueline R. Gerson, Charles T. Driscoll, Jason D. Demers, Amy K. Sauer, Bradley D. Blackwell, Mario R. Montesdeoca, James B. Shanley, Donald S. Ross
2017, Journal of Geophysical Research G: Biogeosciences (122) 1922-1939
Global mercury contamination largely results from direct primary atmospheric and secondary legacy emissions, which can be deposited to ecosystems, converted to methylmercury, and bioaccumulated along food chains. We examined organic horizon soil samples collected across an elevational gradient on Whiteface Mountain in the Adirondack region of New York State, USA...
Climate-induced trends in predator–prey synchrony differ across life-history stages of an anadromous salmonid
Donovan A. Bell, Ryan Kovach, Scott C. Vulstek, John E. Joyce, David A. Tallmon
2017, Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences (74) 1431-1438
Differential climate-induced shifts in phenology can create mismatches between predators and prey, but few studies have examined predator–prey mismatch across multiple life-history stages. We used long-term data from a warming stream with shifting salmonid migration timings to quantify intra-annual migration synchrony between predatory Dolly Varden (Salvelinus malma) and Pacific salmon...
Systems approaches for coastal hazard assessment and resilience
Scott C. Hagen, Davina Passeri, Matthew V. Bilskie, Denise E. DeLorme, David Yoskowitz
2017, Book chapter, Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Natural Hazard Science
The framework presented herein supports a changing paradigm in the approaches used by coastal researchers, engineers, and social scientists to model the impacts of climate change and sea level rise (SLR) in particular along low-gradient coastal landscapes. Use of a System of Systems (SoS) approach to the coastal dynamics of...
Climate change and tree-line ecosystems in the Sierra Nevada: Habitat suitability modelling to inform high-elevation forest dynamics monitoring
Peggy E. Moore, Otto Alvarez, Shawn T. McKinney, Wenkai Li, Matthew L. Brooks, Qinghua Guo
2017, Natural Resource Report NPS/SIEN/NRR—2017/1476
Whitebark pine and foxtail pine serve foundational roles in the subalpine zone of the Sierra Nevada. They provide the dominant structure in tree-line forests and regulate key ecosystem processes and community dynamics. Climate change models suggest that there will be changes in temperature regimes and in the timing and magnitude...
Managed aquifer recharge through off-season irrigation in agricultural regions
Richard G. Niswonger, Eric D. Morway, Enrique Triana, Justin L. Huntington
2017, Water Resources Research (53) 6970-6992
Options for increasing reservoir storage in developed regions are limited and prohibitively expensive. Projected increases in demand call for new long-term water storage to help sustain agriculture, municipalities, industry, and ecological services. Managed aquifer recharge (MAR) is becoming an integral component of water resources around the world. However, MAR faces...
Intra‐annual variability of Silver Carp populations in the Des Moines River, USA
Christopher J. Sullivan, Carlos A. Camacho, Michael J. Weber, Clay Pierce
2017, North American Journal of Fisheries Management (37) 836-849
Since their introduction in the 1970s, Silver Carp Hypophthalmichthys molitrix have spread throughout the Mississippi River basin. Management of any species relies on an accurate understanding of population characteristics and dynamics. However, Silver Carp seasonal sampling variation is unknown. Sampling during periods of peak catch rates would facilitate Silver Carp assessment and...
Celebrating ten years of collaboration
W. Matthew Cushing
2017, GEOSUR Newsletter (4) 4-5
Since the GEOSUR Program launched in 2007, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center has had the honor of collaborating with CAF, PAIGH, and others supporting the Latin America GEOSUR Program. The catalyst for starting the program was the convergence of regional geospatial activities USGS,...
Balancing lake ecological condition and agriculture irrigation needs in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley
Leandro E. Miranda, A.R. Omer, K.J. Killgore
2017, Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment (246) 354-360
The Mississippi Alluvial Valley includes hundreds of floodplain lakes that support unique fish assemblages and high biodiversity. Irrigation practices in the valley have lowered the water table, increasing the cost of pumping water, and necessitating the use of floodplain lakes as a source of...
Integrating geographically isolated wetlands into land management decisions
Heather E. Golden, Irena F. Creed, Genevieve Ali, Nandita Basu, Brian Neff, Mark C. Rains, Daniel L. McLaughlin, Laurie C. Alexander, Ali A. Ameli, Jay R. Christensen, Grey R. Evenson, Charles N. Jones, Charles R. Lane, Megan Lang
2017, Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment (15) 319-327
Wetlands across the globe provide extensive ecosystem services. However, many wetlands – especially those surrounded by uplands, often referred to as geographically isolated wetlands (GIWs) – remain poorly protected. Protection and restoration of wetlands frequently requires information on their hydrologic connectivity to other surface waters, and their cumulative watershed‐scale effects....
NEHRP turns 40
William S. Leith
2017, Seismological Research Letters (88) 943-947
This year, the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) turns 40, four decades since the Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act of 1977 was enacted establishing the Program, spurring numerous federal, state, and community actions to reduce earthquake losses in the U.S.A. and its territories and setting a standard for earthquake loss‐reduction...
Retrospective analysis of seasonal ocean growth rates of two sea winter Atlantic Salmon in eastern Maine using historic scales
Lisa K. Izzo, Joseph D. Zydlewski
2017, Marine and Coastal Fisheries: Dynamics, Management, and Ecosystem Science (9) 357-372
Substantial declines of anadromous Atlantic Salmon Salmo salar have occurred throughout its range, with many populations at the southern extent of the distribution currently extirpated or endangered. While both one sea winter (1SW) and two sea winter (2SW) spawner numbers for the North American stocks have declined since the 1950s, the decline...
Geographic variation in winter adaptations of snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus)
Laura C. Gigliotti, Duane R. Diefenbach, M.J. Sheriff
2017, Canadian Journal of Zoology (95) 539-545
Understanding adaptations of nonhibernating northern endotherms to cope with extreme cold is important because climate-induced changes in winter temperatures and snow cover are predicted to impact these species the most. We compared winter pelage characteristics and heat production of snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus Erxleben, 1777) on the southern edge of their...
Potential impacts of sea level rise on native plant communities and associated cultural sites in coastal areas of the main Hawaiian Islands
James D. Jacobi, Frederick R. Warshauer
2017, Report
Hawaiian coastal vegetation is comprised of plant species that are adapted to growing in extremely harsh conditions (salt spray, wave wash, wind, and substrates with limited nutrients) found in this habitat zone. Prior to human colonization of Hawai‘i coastal vegetation extended as a continuous ring around each of the islands,...
Spatial and temporal variability in benthic invertebrate assemblages in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon
Natalie J. Stauffer-Olsen, James L. Carter, Steven V. Fend
2017, Northwest Science (91) 257-271
Upper Klamath Lake (UKL) in southern Oregon has experienced declines in water quality due to excessive nutrient loading. This has led to annual cyanobacterial blooms, primarily of Aphanizomenon flos-aquae (AFA). Benthic invertebrates are important food resources for benthic feeding fishes; however, they can increase autochthonous nutrient cycling in lakes and as a...
Characterizing meteorological and hydrologic conditions associated with shallow landslide initiation in the coastal bluffs of the Atlantic Highlands, New Jersey
Francis Ashland, Alex R. Fiore, Pamela A. Reilly
Jerome V. De Graff, Abdul Shakoor, editor(s)
2017, Conference Paper, Landslides: Putting Experience, Knowledge and Emerging Technologies into Practice:Special Publication 27
Meteorological and hydrologic conditions associated with shallow landslide initiation in the coastal bluffs of the Atlantic Highlands, New Jersey remain undocumented despite a history of damaging slope movement extending back to at least 1903. This study applies an empirical approach to quantify the rainfall conditions leading to shallow landsliding based...
Spatial heterogeneity of within-stream methane concentrations
John T. Crawford, Luke C. Loken, William E. West, Benjamin Crary, Seth A. Spawn, Nicholas Gubbins, Stuart E. Jones, Robert G. Striegl, Emily H. Stanley
2017, Journal of Geophysical Research G: Biogeosciences (122) 1036-1048
Streams, rivers, and other freshwater features may be significant sources of CH4 to the atmosphere. However, high spatial and temporal variabilities hinder our ability to understand the underlying processes of CH4 production and delivery to streams and also challenge the use of scaling approaches across large areas. We studied a stream having...
Compilation of geospatial data for the mineral industries and related infrastructure of Latin America and the Caribbean
Michael S. Baker, Spencer D. Buteyn, Philip A. Freeman, Michael H. Trippi, Loyd M. Trimmer III
2017, Open-File Report 2017-1079
This report describes the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) ongoing commitment to its mission of understanding the nature and distribution of global mineral commodity supply chains by updating and publishing the georeferenced locations of mineral commodity production and processing facilities, mineral exploration and development sites, and mineral commodity exporting ports in...
Simulated groundwater flow paths, travel time, and advective transport of nitrogen in the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system, Barnegat Bay–Little Egg Harbor Watershed, New Jersey
Lois M. Voronin, Stephen J. Cauller
2017, Scientific Investigations Report 2016-5169
Elevated concentrations of nitrogen in groundwater that discharges to surface-water bodies can degrade surface-water quality and habitats in the New Jersey Coastal Plain. An analysis of groundwater flow in the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system and deeper confined aquifers that underlie the Barnegat Bay–Little Egg Harbor (BB-LEH) watershed and estuary was conducted...
Final Report fr critical thresholds and ecosystem services for coastal ecological and human climate adaptation
Michelle D. Staudinger, Emily J. Powell, Andrew Milliken, Megan C. Tyrrell
2017, Report
Understanding how climate change will impact natural and human communities is a crucial part of decision making and management related to the protection of our coasts. As the effects of climate change on ecological communities grow, the possibility of crossing tipping points or thresholds of viability increases the potential for...
Initial pulse of Siberian Traps sills as the trigger of the end-Permian mass extinction
Seth D. Burgess, James D. Muirhead, Samuel A. Bowring
2017, Nature Communications (8) 1-6
Mass extinction events are short-lived and characterized by catastrophic biosphere collapse and subsequent reorganization. Their abrupt nature necessitates a similarly short-lived trigger, and large igneous province magmatism is often implicated. However, large igneous provinces are long-lived compared to mass extinctions. Therefore, if large igneous provinces are an effective trigger, a...
CO2 time series patterns in contrasting headwater streams of North America
John T. Crawford, Emily H. Stanley, Mark M. Dornblaser, Robert G. Striegl
2017, Aquatic Sciences (79) 473-486
We explored the underlying patterns of temporal stream CO2 partial pressure (pCO2) variability using highfrequency sensors in seven disparate headwater streams distributed across the northern hemisphere. We also compared this dataset of [40,000 pCO2 records with other published records from lotic systems. Individual stream sites exhibited relatively distinct pCO2 patterns...
Model selection for the North American Breeding Bird Survey: A comparison of methods
William A. Link, John R. Sauer, Daniel Niven
2017, Condor (119) 546-556
The North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) provides data for >420 bird species at multiple geographic scales over 5 decades. Modern computational methods have facilitated the fitting of complex hierarchical models to these data. It is easy to propose and fit new models, but little attention has been given to...