Forecasting damaging earthquakes in the central and eastern United States
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Abstract
Analysis of seismograph network data, earthquake catalogs from 1727 to 1982, and paleoseismic data for the central and eastern United States indicate that the Poisson probability of a damaging earthquake (magnitude ≥ 6.0) occurring during the next 30 years is at a moderate to high level (0.4 to 0.6). When differences in seismic wave attenuation are taken into account, the central and eastern United States has approximately two-thirds the likelihood of California to produce an earthquake with comparable damage area and societal impact within the next 30 years.
Suggested Citation
Nishenko, S., Bollinger, G.A., 1990, Forecasting damaging earthquakes in the central and eastern United States: Science, v. 249, no. 4975, p. 1412-1416, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.249.4975.1412.
Study Area
| Publication type | Article |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
| Title | Forecasting damaging earthquakes in the central and eastern United States |
| Series title | Science |
| DOI | 10.1126/science.249.4975.1412 |
| Volume | 249 |
| Issue | 4975 |
| Year Published | 1990 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | American Association for the Advancement of Science |
| Description | 5 p. |
| First page | 1412 |
| Last page | 1416 |
| Country | United States |
| Other Geospatial | central and eastern United States |