Prospects for eruption prediction in near real-time
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Abstract
The 'materials science' method for eruption prediction1–3 arises from the application of a general law governing the failure of materials: Ω⊙−α Ω¨ − A = 0, where A and α are empirical constants, and Ω is an observable quantity such as ground deformation, seismicity or gas emission. This law leads to the idea of the 'inverse-rate' plot, in which the time of failure can be estimated by extrapolation of the curve of Ω−1 versus time to a pre-deter-mined intercept. Here we suggest that this method can be combined with real-time seismic amplitude monitoring to provide a tool for near-real-time eruption prediction, and we demonstrate how it might have been used to predict two dome-growth episodes at Mount St Helens volcano in 1985 and 1986, and two explosive eruptions at Redoubt volcano in 1989–90.
Suggested Citation
Voight, B., and Cornelius, R.R., 1991, Prospects for eruption prediction in near real-time: Nature, v. 350, no. 6320, p. 695-698, https://doi.org/10.1038/350695a0.
Study Area
| Publication type | Article |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
| Title | Prospects for eruption prediction in near real-time |
| Series title | Nature |
| DOI | 10.1038/350695a0 |
| Volume | 350 |
| Issue | 6320 |
| Year Published | 1991 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | Springer Nature |
| Description | 4 p. |
| First page | 695 |
| Last page | 698 |
| Country | United States |
| State | Washington |
| Other Geospatial | Mount St. Helens |