Prospects for eruption prediction in near real-time
Links
- More information: Publisher Index Page (via DOI)
- Download citation as: RIS | Dublin Core
Abstract
The 'materials science' method for eruption prediction1–3 arises from the application of a general law governing the failure of materials: Ω⊙−α Ω¨ − A = 0, where A and α are empirical constants, and Ω is an observable quantity such as ground deformation, seismicity or gas emission. This law leads to the idea of the 'inverse-rate' plot, in which the time of failure can be estimated by extrapolation of the curve of Ω−1 versus time to a pre-deter-mined intercept. Here we suggest that this method can be combined with real-time seismic amplitude monitoring to provide a tool for near-real-time eruption prediction, and we demonstrate how it might have been used to predict two dome-growth episodes at Mount St Helens volcano in 1985 and 1986, and two explosive eruptions at Redoubt volcano in 1989–90.
Study Area
| Publication type | Article |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
| Title | Prospects for eruption prediction in near real-time |
| Series title | Nature |
| DOI | 10.1038/350695a0 |
| Volume | 350 |
| Issue | 6320 |
| Year Published | 1991 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | Springer Nature |
| Description | 4 p. |
| First page | 695 |
| Last page | 698 |
| Country | United States |
| State | Washington |
| Other Geospatial | Mount St. Helens |