Spatially continuous models of aleatory variability in seismic site response for southern California

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Abstract

We develop an empirical, spatially continuous model for the single-station within-event (ϕSS) component of earthquake ground motion variability in the Los Angeles area. ϕSS represents event-to-event variability in site response or remaining variability due to path effects not captured by ground motion models. Site-specific values of ϕSS at permanent seismic network stations were estimated during our previous work [1]. Here we first fit a model to ϕSS conditioned on the time-averaged shear wave velocity in the upper 30 m (VS30). We observe that stations on soft soil have larger average variability in site response than those on rock, especially at short periods. We use regression kriging to spatially interpolate ϕSS to an even grid spacing, using the VS30-scaling as the background model [2]. This improves on previous work that used ordinary kriging for interpolation [1]. We find that ϕSS ranges from about 0.1 to 0.4 natural log units in our study area, representing variations in site response at single locations of a factor of 1.1 up to a factor of 1.5. There is both greater variability and more coherency in the variability for short-period site response than for long periods. We recommend using these ϕSS models with the site response models of [1] for applications where quantification of variability is needed, such as probabilistic seismic hazard analyses.

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Publication type Conference Paper
Publication Subtype Conference Paper
Title Spatially continuous models of aleatory variability in seismic site response for southern California
Year Published 2022
Language English
Publisher Earthquake Engineering Research Institute
Contributing office(s) Earthquake Science Center, Geologic Hazards Science Center
Description 5 p.
Larger Work Type Book
Larger Work Subtype Conference publication
Larger Work Title Proceedings from the 12th national conference on earthquake engineering
Conference Title 12th National Conference on Earthquake Engineering
Conference Location Salt Lake City, UT
Conference Date Jun 27 - Jul 1, 2022
Country United States
State California
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