Upwelling, climate change, and the shifting geography of coral reef development
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Abstract
The eastern tropical Pacific is oceanographically unfavorable for coral-reef development. Nevertheless, reefs have persisted there for the last 7000 years. Rates of vertical accretion during the Holocene have been similar in the strong-upwelling Gulf of Panamá (GoP) and the adjacent, weak-upwelling Gulf of Chiriquí (GoC); however, seasonal upwelling in the GoP exacerbated a climate-driven hiatus in reef development in the late Holocene. The situation is now reversed and seasonal upwelling in the GoP currently buffers thermal stress, creating a refuge for coral growth. We developed carbonate budget models to project the capacity of reefs in both gulfs to keep up with future sea-level rise. On average, the GoP had significantly higher net carbonate production rates than the GoC. With an estimated contemporary reef-accretion potential (RAP) of 5.5 mm year−1, reefs in the GoP are projected to be able to keep up with sea-level rise if CO2 emissions are reduced, but not under current emissions trajectories. With an estimated RAP of just 0.3 mm year−1, reefs in the GoC are likely already unable to keep up with contemporary sea-level rise in Panamá (1.4 mm year−1). Whereas the GoP has the potential to support functional reefs in the near-term, our study indicates that their long-term persistence will depend on reduction of greenhouse gases.
Study Area
| Publication type | Article |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
| Title | Upwelling, climate change, and the shifting geography of coral reef development |
| Series title | Scientific Reports |
| DOI | 10.1038/s41598-023-28489-0 |
| Volume | 13 |
| Publication Date | February 07, 2023 |
| Year Published | 2023 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | Nature |
| Contributing office(s) | St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center |
| Description | 1770, 15 p. |
| Country | Panama |