Predicting burn severity for integration with post-fire debris-flow hazard assessment: A case study from the Upper Colorado River Basin, USA
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Abstract
Background: Burn severity significantly increases the likelihood and volume of post-wildfire debris flows. Pre-fire severity predictions can expedite mitigation efforts because precipitation contributing to these hazards often occurs shortly after wildfires, leaving little time for post-fire planning and management.
Aim: The aim of this study was to predict burn severity using pre-fire conditions of individual wildfire events and estimate potential post-fire debris flow to unburned areas.
Methods: We used random forests to model dNBR from pre-fire weather, fuels, topography, and remotely sensed data. We validated our model predictions against post-fire observations and potential post-fire debris-flow hazard estimates.
Key results: Fuels, pre-fire weather, and topography were important predictors of burn severity, although predictor importance varied between fires. Post-fire debris-flow hazard rankings from predicted burn severity (pre-fire) were similar to hazard assessments based on observed burn severity (post-fire).
Conclusion: Predicted burn severity can serve as an input to post-fire debris-flow models before wildfires occur, antecedent to standard post-fire burn severity products. Assessing a larger set of fires under disparate conditions and landscapes will be needed to refine predictive models.
Implications: Burn severity models based on pre-fire conditions enable the prediction of fire effects and identification of potential hazards to prioritise response and mitigation.
Study Area
| Publication type | Article |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
| Title | Predicting burn severity for integration with post-fire debris-flow hazard assessment: A case study from the Upper Colorado River Basin, USA |
| Series title | International Journal of Wildland Fire |
| DOI | 10.1071/WF22200 |
| Volume | 32 |
| Issue | 9 |
| Year Published | 2023 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | CSIRO Publishing |
| Contributing office(s) | Alaska Science Center, Geologic Hazards Science Center, Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center, Office of the AD Ecosystems, Southwest Biological Science Center |
| Description | 17 p. |
| First page | 1315 |
| Last page | 1331 |
| Country | United States |
| State | Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming |
| Other Geospatial | Colorado River Basin |
| Google Analytic Metrics | Metrics page |