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Range-wide Population Trend Analysis for Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus)—Updated 1960–2024

Data Report 1217
Ecosystems Mission Areas—Species Management Research Program and Land Management Research Program
Prepared in cooperation with the Bureau of Land Management
By: , , , , , , , , and 
https://doi.org/10.3133/dr1217

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Abstract

Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; hereafter sage-grouse) are at the center of State and national land-use policies largely because of their unique life-history traits as an ecological indicator for the health of sagebrush ecosystems. This updated population trend analysis provides State and Federal land and wildlife managers with the best available science to help guide management and conservation plans aimed at benefiting sage-grouse populations and the ecosystems they inhabit. This analysis relied on previously published population trend modeling methodology from Coates and others (2021, 2022a) and incorporates population lek count data for 1960–2024. Included in this report are methodological updates to lek count data aggregation, state-space model forecasting, and targeted annual warning system signals, which are detailed under individual Modification sections. State-space models estimated a 2.9-percent average annual decline in sage-grouse populations between 1966 and 2021 (Period 1, six population oscillations) across their geographical range. The average annual decline among climate clusters for the same number of oscillations ranged between 2.2 and 3.4 percent. Cumulative declines were 41.2, 64.1, and 78.8 percent range-wide in Period 5 (19 years), Period 3 (35 years), and Period 1 (55 years), respectively.

Suggested Citation

Prochazka, B.G., Coates, P.S., Aldridge, C.L., O'Donnell, M.S., Edmunds, D.R., Monroe, A.P., Hanser, S.E., Wiechman, L.A., and Chenaille, M.P., 2025, Range-wide population trend analysis for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus)—Updated 1960–2024: U.S. Geological Survey Data Report 1217, 22 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/dr1217.

ISSN: 2771-9448 (online)

Study Area

Table of Contents

  • Acknowledgments
  • Abstract
  • Introduction
  • Study Area
  • Data Compilation and Inputs
  • Range-Wide Sage-Grouse Population Model
  • Range-Wide Population Trends
  • Climate Cluster Population Trends
  • Probability of Future Extirpation
  • Watches and Warnings from a Targeted Annual Warning System
  • References Cited
  • Glossary
Publication type Report
Publication Subtype USGS Numbered Series
Title Range-wide population trend analysis for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus)—Updated 1960–2024
Series title Data Report
Series number 1217
DOI 10.3133/dr1217
Publication Date December 01, 2025
Year Published 2025
Language English
Publisher U.S. Geological Survey
Publisher location Reston, VA
Contributing office(s) Western Ecological Research Center
Description Report: viii, 22 p.; Data Release
Country United States
State California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, North Dakota, Oregon, South Dakota, Utah, Washington, Wyoming
Online Only (Y/N) Y
Additional publication details