Watershed regressions for pesticides (WARP) for predicting atrazine concentration in Corn Belt streams

Open-File Report 2011-1141
National Water-Quality Assessment Program
By:  and 



Watershed Regressions for Pesticides (WARP) models, previously developed for atrazine at the national scale, can be improved for application to the U.S. Corn Belt region by developing region-specific models that include important watershed characteristics that are influential in predicting atrazine concentration statistics within the Corn Belt. WARP models for the Corn Belt (WARP-CB) were developed for predicting annual maximum moving-average (14-, 21-, 30-, 60-, and 90-day durations) and annual 95th-percentile atrazine concentrations in streams of the Corn Belt region. All streams used in development of WARP-CB models drain watersheds with atrazine use intensity greater than 17 kilograms per square kilometer (kg/km2). The WARP-CB models accounted for 53 to 62 percent of the variability in the various concentration statistics among the model-development sites. The 95-percent prediction intervals are well within a factor of 10 above and below the predicted concentration statistic. WARP-CB model predictions were within a factor of 5 of the observed concentration statistic for over 90 percent of the model-development sites. The WARP-CB residuals and uncertainty are lower than those of the National WARP model for the same sites. The WARP-CB models provide improved predictions of the probability of exceeding a specified criterion or benchmark for Corn Belt streams draining watersheds with high atrazine use intensities; however, National WARP models should be used for Corn Belt streams where atrazine use intensities are less than 17 kg/km2 of watershed area.
Publication type Report
Publication Subtype USGS Numbered Series
Title Watershed regressions for pesticides (WARP) for predicting atrazine concentration in Corn Belt streams
Series title Open-File Report
Series number 2011-1141
DOI 10.3133/ofr20111141
Year Published 2011
Publisher U.S. Geological Survey
Contributing office(s) Indiana Water Science Center
Description vii, 15 p.; Appendices; Appendix 1; Appendix 2
Additional Online Files (Y/N) Y
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