thumbnail

Quantitative Risk of Earthquake Disruption to Global Copper and Rhenium Supply

Open-File Report 2024-1028
Earthquake Hazards Program and Mineral Resources Program
By: , , , , and 
https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20241028

Links

Abstract

Earthquakes have the potential to substantially affect mining operations, potentially leading to supply chain disruptions and adversely affecting the global economy. This study explores the quantification of earthquake risk to copper and rhenium commodity supply by examining the spatial concentration of high earthquake hazard areas and the commodity-specific mining, smelting, and refining operations across the globe. Because many of the largest facilities are concentrated geographically near the highly seismic regions of South America, East Asia, and the Pacific, there is a potential for cascading effects on the entire supply chain. The analysis indicates that the expected annual disruption of global production is 0.3–1.1 percent for copper mines, 1.8–4.0 percent for smelters, and 1.5–3.3 percent for refineries. Expected annual disruption of global rhenium production capacity is 0.32–1.32 percent. The research highlights that the potential lost revenue from earthquake disruptions is from $315 million to $1.29 billion for copper mining, $1.92 billion to $4.33 billion for copper smelting, $2.06 billion to $4.52 billion for copper refining, and $337,000 to $1.40 million for rhenium production capacity.

Suggested Citation

Jaiswal, K.S., Luco, N., Schnebele, E.K., Nassar, N.T., and Otarod, D., 2024, Quantitative risk of earthquake disruption to global copper and rhenium supply: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2024–1028, 19 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20241028.

ISSN: 2331-1258 (online)

Table of Contents

  • Abstract
  • Introduction
  • Data and Models
  • Method
  • Results
  • Summary, Limitations, and Future Work
  • References Cited
Publication type Report
Publication Subtype USGS Numbered Series
Title Quantitative risk of earthquake disruption to global copper and rhenium supply
Series title Open-File Report
Series number 2024-1028
DOI 10.3133/ofr20241028
Year Published 2024
Language English
Publisher U.S. Geological Survey
Publisher location Reston, VA
Contributing office(s) National Minerals Information Center, Geologic Hazards Science Center - Seismology / Geomagnetism
Description iv, 19 p.
Online Only (Y/N) Y
Google Analytic Metrics Metrics page
Additional publication details