Foundations for Codevelopment

One goal for the ASIST team is to ensure that the science developed through ASIST efforts meets the needs of stakeholders affected by long-term drought in the Colorado River Basin. The ASIST team iteratively builds on previous activities to better understand stakeholder science needs in the Colorado River Basin, the state of USGS science and the challenges and solutions associated with integrating drought science, and existing USGS capabilities and approaches to deliver drought science and data to a growing number of interested stakeholders and partners. Two of the foundational accomplishments, the Stakeholder Needs Assessment and the 2021 Science and Technology Collaboration Meetings (fig. 2), were especially important in structuring the 2023 Codesign Workshop Series. The Stakeholder Needs Assessment included the review of more than 200 recently published sources to characterize more than 400 stakeholder science needs and concerns of stakeholders related to drought (Frus and others, 2021). Information from the Stakeholder Needs Assessment was used to identify suitable stakeholders and their science needs that directly related to priority science topics as identified from the 12 science and technology series of meetings held in 2021. The 2021 Science and Technology Collaboration Meetings included a wide range of multidisciplinary USGS scientists and managers discussing complex, integrated science challenges and solutions related to drought in the Colorado River Basin. The 2021 Science and Technology Collaboration Meetings highlighted opportunities for ASIST to facilitate science integration in the Colorado River Basin by prioritizing specific research topics, connecting scientists across disciplines, and reducing barriers to stakeholder engagement and data access (Monroe and others, 2025). The Stakeholder Needs Assessment and the 2021 Science and Technology Collaboration Meetings were used to identify internal and external participants for the 2023 Codesign Workshop Series, develop core team drought themes and research topics, and explore the use of applying whiteboards, using polling, and planning and formatting virtual breakout and listening sessions.

Overview of Workshop Structure and Participants

The 2023 Codesign Workshop Series was designed to bring together interdisciplinary expertise associated with select stakeholders; USGS leadership, program managers, and scientists; and internal and external subject matter experts to identify drought science needs and drought and climate-based datasets and codevelop drought science project ideas and project concepts for the Colorado River Basin. Workshop objectives included the following: (1) discussing and understanding stakeholder drought science needs, (2) discussing and summarizing the state of drought science in the Colorado River Basin, (3) prioritizing drought science needs, (4) codeveloping project ideas and concepts, (5) identifying important drought and climate science data to be included in a new USGS collaborative science data portal for the Colorado River Basin, and (6) identifying lessons learned from the 2023 Codesign Workshop Series and creating a list of best practices to improve the design and structure of future codevelopment workshops and team processes.

The workshop was structured around three core teams focused on one of three drought-related topic questions previously identified from the 2021 Science and Technology Collaboration Meetings (Monroe and others, 2025).

The 2023 Codesign Workshop Series included 67 participants from across the Nation (fig. 3) who were assigned to one of the three core teams. Two core teams were led by seven USGS scientists, and the third core team was led by eight USGS scientists, with the scientists representing multiple USGS science centers and offices. These scientists were either self-nominated or nominated by their science centers. Stakeholders and internal and external subject matter experts and internal USGS leadership and program managers were invited to participate in discussions and feedback sessions with core team members (table 1). Each core team included one or two ASIST facilitators to orient workshop participants and explain the objectives of agenda activities and the virtual formatting and tools that were expected to be used during discussions, breakout sessions, and core team work sessions. A list of potential stakeholders was identified from the Stakeholder Needs Assessment (Frus and others, 2021), the 2021 Science and Technology Collaboration Meetings (Monroe and others, 2025), the 2020 and 2022 USGS Rocky Mountain Region Science Exchanges (Tillery, Anderson, and others, 2022; Anderson and Tillery, 2022; Peterson and others, 2023), and through professional affiliations. The ASIST team emailed invitations to stakeholders with information about the purposes, goals, and dates of the workshop, why they were selected, and their anticipated participation and roles. Stakeholders were also invited to suggest colleagues. The ASIST team followed up with stakeholders who responded positively and contacted several suggested colleagues. The interested stakeholder participants (29) were then invited to a preworkshop orientation. External and USGS subject matter experts were identified by the expertise that was needed to discuss the state of the science for a broad range of science needed by partners and stakeholders. Stakeholders were assigned to core teams based on drought topic questions and their science needs associated with drought and general type of agency focus. Internal and external subject matter experts were assigned to core teams based on drought topic questions and their expertise. Two external information and technology experts were assigned to all core teams. The broad range of expertise and levels of experience of all workshop participants brought unique and diverse perspectives to each team. Given the challenging and complex issue of drought, these perspectives were critical to developing integrated science project ideas and concepts.

The general workflow for the 2023 Codesign Workshop Series is depicted in figure 4. Group discussions with all workshop participants were typically followed by individual core team work sessions where core team members further deliberated on session outcomes and added daily and weekly session activity outcomes in their team portfolios. Collaborative sessions with stakeholders were generally followed by individual core team ideation, where they discussed, compiled, and synthesized feedback on science and data needs and science priorities previously discussed by stakeholders and subject matter experts. An iterative process followed as core teams worked on daily work session activities and then shared their progress back to all workshop participants at the end of the day and weekly accomplishments at the end of each week. Feedback from these daily and weekly updates provided opportunities for course corrections and revisions. In addition, core team members met with USGS program managers and internal and external subject matter experts to refine science project ideas and project concepts until the final workshop milestones were achieved at the end of the workshop series (fig. 5). Large group discussions at the end or beginning of the daily schedule fostered cross-team connections on project ideas and identification of common themes from stakeholders. This process ensured that specific, nonredundant project concepts were developed within each core team. Core teams also used their science portfolios to document weekly takeaways and weekly lessons that were used during weekly meetings to revise agendas, discussions, and recommendations for best practices at future ASIST workshops.

Table 2 provides a detailed list of the weekly schedule, daily workshop activities, and associated participant groups. The first week of the workshop series included activities that were designed to learn about the workshop structure and team participants, along with team-building activities for core team members. The primary focus during the first week was to (1) learn more about the invited stakeholders’ priority drought science and data needs, (2) identify existing science gaps and immediate science delivery needs, (3) learn more about USGS mission area science priorities and current activities and shared priorities between the USGS and stakeholders, and (4) formulate science project ideas and compile information in their team portfolios. Core team discussions between stakeholders occurred throughout the week through planned discussions and daily and weekly updates. Drought topic questions were provided to stakeholders prior to the workshops to facilitate and focus the discussion on their specific science needs and potential opportunities for future collaboration in drought science projects.

Individual core team members continued discussions of stakeholder needs and science project ideas during the second week. Core teams refined science project ideas after meeting with internal and external subject matter experts and continued to evaluate existing science and technology capabilities. Core team members prioritized the identified science gaps and identified immediate actions to improve science delivery and communication. Individual core teams also focused on identifying targeted timeframes in which science gaps could be addressed. Ideation followed synthesis, and each core team grouped science project ideas by immediate, short-, mid-, and long-term actions. Each core team continued to organize all information associated with their discussions, work sessions, and synthesis activities into team portfolios. After additional iterations between stakeholders, USGS program managers, and internal and external subject matter specialists, science project ideas were prioritized by core team members. The prioritized list of science project ideas was presented to all participants for additional feedback at the end of the week. Core teams also used the prioritized list to begin drafting science project concepts.

At the end of week 2, core teams focused on synthesizing feedback and finalizing the list of project ideas. Activities during the third week of the workshop series included (1) completing science project concepts from the prioritized project ideas; (2) finalizing a list of completed science products for immediate inclusion in a USGS science collaboration portal; and (3) documenting weekly takeaways, lessons learned, and other information in science portfolios.

A list of core team weekly accomplishments is presented in table 3. The process used for project concept development during the workshop differs from the typical approach that begins with a predefined project scope in mind and seeks partners and funding to garner support. By first listening to stakeholders express their need for science to manage resources and make science-informed decisions for their organizations in the Colorado River Basin, the core teams focused on the delivery of data and information to stakeholders that would make an immediate difference in their management of natural resources.

Workshop Resources and Information Gathered

The ASIST team used digital tools to share information with workshop participants and guide discussion activities. Each workshop took place virtually on a collaborative platform with full access to polling options, breakout rooms, and chat functionality. The ASIST team created a website that included group resources and individual pages for each core team. Workshop participants were provided daily and weekly agendas; links to team meetings and breakout rooms; biographical information about core team members, stakeholders, and subject matter experts; background materials; and recordings of presentations. Each core team had a separate web-based folder for team document sharing and organization. We used several information templates during the workshop to facilitate knowledge transfer across teams and during postworkshop synthesis activities. The templates included a document for daily notetaking organized by week, day, and session; a virtual whiteboard with virtual sticky notes for simultaneous viewing and editing by core team members to collaborate and share ideas during core team breakout sessions; and preformatted presentation slides and documents to share summaries of each team’s key concepts and takeaways throughout the workshop series. Key takeaways from each workshop session, including outcomes from group discussions and whiteboard exercises, were summarized at the end of each week and reported back to all workshop participants.

All materials and recordings developed during the workshop were archived for postworkshop reference and documentation purposes. Online polls were periodically administered to gauge the outlook of the core team members and facilitate discussion of the workshop framework and changes to the workshop agenda and activities as each week progressed. The polls provided an anonymous format for team members to submit candid responses. Team-building activities promoted trust amongst workshop participants and core teams and allowed open and inclusive core team brainstorming sessions. Some participating stakeholders held office hours outside of the scheduled workshop agenda for core team members to pose additional questions and get feedback on specific project ideas or data needs.

Key Takeaways from Week 1

Week 1 of the workshop series first focused core team members on team-building activities to identify their knowledge, experience, and skills. Presentations and discussions with stakeholders first centered on the codevelopment approach, and then core team members and subject matter experts listened to stakeholders discuss their drought-related science needs. Each core team then met with their assigned subject matter experts to further discuss stakeholder science needs, science gaps, and ideas to leverage existing science data or approaches. Discussion outcomes, thoughts, questions, and ideas were organized as science portfolios from which the initial project ideas were drafted for each team’s drought-related topic question. Core teams also identified common themes across all groups through their weekly cross-communication sharing activities.

Key Takeaways from Week 2

Week 2 of the workshop series focused on reviewing, revising, and discussing week 1 portfolios and codeveloped project ideas, drafting new ideas to fill identified gaps, prioritizing project ideas, and transforming higher priority project ideas into project concepts. These activities were accomplished by continued feedback from stakeholders and the sharing of project ideas and discussions with subject matter experts. Subject matter experts provided their knowledge and perspectives based on new technology and innovative approaches and the state of the science for each of the three drought focal topics. Refer to the “Overview of Workshop Structure and Participants” section of this report for information on the three topics. Input and discussion topics on the state of the science included science studies, data, models, communication tools, and known expertise. Priority science needs were identified and sorted into immediate, short-term, mid-term, and long-term actions based on input by subject matter experts. The collective outcome from the week 2 activities included codeveloped project concepts with project timeframes, lists of ideas that span current multidisciplinary science topics, and lists of additional priority science gaps and needs.

Key Takeaways from Week 3

The emphasis of week 3 was on synthesizing stakeholder needs and subject matter expertise into project concepts. The week opened with each core team presenting their proposed projects to workshop participants for feedback and refinement. Project ideas were also presented to available stakeholders and subject matter experts. Teams were asked to reflect upon their project concepts relative to the other core teams and answer several questions, including identifying common themes, recommending methods to improve science delivery, and presenting recommendations for future actions at short, intermediate, and long timescales.

Workshop Science Delivery

Core teams were asked to provide a summary of their discussions regarding limitations and challenges for science delivery improvements in the Colorado River Basin. The limitations and challenges identified consisted of the following: (1) interdisciplinary cooperation; (2) limitations on bandwidth, accessibility, and efficiency for large datasets; (3) need to adapt to dynamically emerging priorities; (4) compatibility and consistency of data; (5) maintenance and operation of online tools and resources; and (6) challenges to providing tools for forecasting and scenario testing.

Understanding Shifting Ecohydrological Baselines

Ecohydrology is the study of the interactions between water and ecological systems. An ecohydrological shift refers to a significant change in the interactions between ecological systems (such as vegetation and wildlife) and hydrological processes (such as water availability, movement, and quality) within a given landscape. The objective of this project is to better understand what ecohydrological baselines are affected by prolonged drought and how information and data can be used to identify patterns of shifts across the Colorado River Basin. For example, a spatiotemporal hydrologic framework could be developed using snowpack and streamflow data combined with regional-scale precipitation models to evaluate current and potential future effects of drought on ecosystem health. Remote sensing data, including vegetation indices and soil moisture, could be used to evaluate shifting vegetation patterns. The proposed project could then use data collected for decades to create a model for projected drought effects and identify priority habitats that are vulnerable. Understanding ecohydrological shifts allows land management agencies to make informed decisions regarding land-use planning and resource management and can help agencies implement adaptive management strategies that are responsive to ongoing environmental changes. This project addresses stakeholder needs for more effective public-facing access to data and information delivery. Stakeholders could include the agencies that need more predictive information on ecosystem change, including the Bureau of Reclamation, Bureau of Land Management, National Park Service, and U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. Stakeholders from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the consulting firm Stantec (Denver, Colorado), the nonprofit organization Sageland Collaborative (Salt Lake City, Utah), and the philanthropic organization Walton Family Foundation (Bentonville, Arkansas) demonstrated an interest in identifying and communicating the effects of regional drought.

San Juan River Basin Synthesis

The objective of the San Juan River Basin synthesis project is to determine how ongoing drought has affected the cumulative effects of land management practices on water availability, water quality, and fisheries integrity. A nested subbasin approach would be used to address regional patterns at the basin scale, with specific processes (for example, metal input from natural background and mining activity) investigated in lower order subbasins. Existing USGS datasets, including streamflow, water quality, land-use coverage, and chemistry data from Lake Powell sediment cores, would be integrated with ecosystem data from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to evaluate how the drought cycle has affected streamflow, trace-metal source areas, and sedimentation that affect the San Juan River Basin. Partners for this project may include the Navajo Nation, Arizona, New Mexico, and Utah; the Jicarilla Apache Nation, New Mexico; the Ute Mountain Ute Tribe; the Southern Ute Indian Tribe of the Southern Ute Indian Reservation, Colorado; the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service; the Bureau of Reclamation; the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; the nonprofit organization Trout Unlimited (Durango, Colorado); and State environmental agencies in Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah.

Incorporating Dynamic Land Cover into Hydrologic Models

Changes in vegetation coverage after megafires may have a profound effect on hydrologic cycling. Few hydrologic models incorporate dynamic land cover data into snow-to-flow modeling. Researchers recognize that long-term drought and aridification drive changes in land use and land cover with cascading effects on flow forecasts. Dynamic land-surface coverage, including land-use and vegetation patterns, hydrology, and landscape ecology, across multiple spatial and temporal scales can be integrated with efforts, including the proposed “Understanding Shifting Ecohydrologic Baselines” project, to provide a holistic approach to watershed modeling. The resulting information would provide water managers and policy makers with more accurate short- and long-term streamflow forecasts while reflecting changes in vegetation cover.

Aridification Compared to Drought

The objective of this project is to determine if the reduction in precipitation (and the resulting hydrological and ecological changes) in the Colorado River Basin is a temporally discrete drought or has progressed to aridification with resultant irreversible ecological changes. The first steps of this project include adopting a universally accepted definition of aridification based on interdisciplinary studies that have already developed metrics that can be evaluated using USGS data. This project can occur over multiple spatial scales to determine whether aridification is apparent across the Colorado River Basin or is spatially discrete. Hydrological and snowpack datasets can be combined with hydrologic modeling to look at the long-term trends of water supply. Including an ecological perspective using long-term monitoring of piñon-juniper woodland, sagebrush steppe, grassland, and montane ecosystems would provide metrics on soil moisture and vegetation loss that would integrate well with hydrologic monitoring. An outcome of this project would be to define the effects of drought and (or) aridification as a potential driver of environmental change in the Colorado River Basin. Partners for this project could include the Bureau of Reclamation, Bureau of Land Management, National Park Service, and Utah Department of Natural Resources.

Surface Water-Groundwater Interactions

This project concept is focused on improving the understanding of surface water and groundwater interactions and their effect on streamflow generated from snowmelt. The exchange between hydrologic compartments can help inform water management, including reservoir releases and conservation measures intended to support riparian sustainability and streambank water storage. A multiyear evaluation of the interaction between snowmelt, surface water, and groundwater would determine how the hydrologic cycle varies between wet and dry years. The project focus would be on the stream-reach scale with specific locations determined by potential partners, including the National Park Service, Bureau of Reclamation, New Mexico Bureau of Geology and Mineral Resources, and nonprofit organizations Aspen Global Change Institute (Basalt, Colorado) and Sageland Collaborative (Salt Lake City, Utah). The project as conceived would require new chemical tracers at the stream-reach scale. Chemical tracers can provide quantitative or qualitative estimates of recharge and identify sources of recharge, velocities, and travel times of water movement. Existing data from USGS studies could be synthesized to identify data gaps in the Colorado River Basin that require tracer studies and create a regional perspective across daily, annual, or decadal timescales for identifying critical stream reaches.

Cascading Effects of Drought on Dust

Decades of USGS studies in the Colorado River Basin have demonstrated that soil destabilization through land management practices and drought has resulted in the production of dust with deleterious effects on human and ecosystem health. Monitoring by the USGS and agency partners has quantified dust effects in the vicinity of uranium mining near Grand Canyon National Park, landscape-scale dust generation from recreational and energy extraction activities in the Colorado Plateau in Utah, and the effect of dust on the acceleration of snowmelt in the Rocky Mountains. There is an immediate need for data organization and improved data access that caters to data discovery relative to common dust questions and stakeholder needs. Development of an integrated, continuous dust monitoring network would help inform land management practices for States, the Bureau of Land Management, the National Park Service, and the Natural Resources Conservation Service.

Cascading Effects of Drought on Water Availability

Decreases in water availability can have substantial effects on hydroelectric power generation, ecosystem health, and socioeconomic aspects of human societies. However, there are substantive gaps in understanding the effects of decreased surface-water availability on groundwater resources. Some of these gaps are associated with representative monitoring sites that are insufficiently distributed spatially and vertically across groundwater gradients. Understanding surface water and groundwater interactions in the Colorado River Basin is increasingly important. A better understanding of the cascading effects of drought and (or) aridification on water availability and the cascading effects of reduced water availability would provide helpful information for planning adaptation measures to address long-term severe drought.

Cascading Effects of Drought on Socioeconomic Factors

The socioeconomic factors associated with long-term drought in the Colorado River Basin are complex and interconnected. Addressing these challenges requires a comprehensive approach that considers water management, agricultural practices, economic stability, and community resilience. Decreases in water availability can have substantial effects on hydroelectric power generation, ecosystem health, and socioeconomic aspects of human societies. Additionally, there are substantive gaps in understanding the effects of decreased surface-water availability on groundwater resources and their socioeconomic importance to maintaining agriculture in the Colorado River Basin. Drought conditions can significantly reduce crop yields and affect livestock health, leading to economic losses for farmers and ranchers. In addition, agricultural producers may face higher costs for irrigation, feed, and water purchases, which can strain their financial viability and lead to increased food prices. Job losses in agriculture can cascade to farm-related industries and local economies. Drought can reduce water levels in lakes and rivers, affecting recreational activities such as boating, fishing, and tourism, which are vital to local economies.

Socioeconomic analyses related to water quantity and availability and drought impacts (including increased irrigation costs, reduced crop yields, and loss of farm income) in the Colorado River Basin would help address many known gaps. Socioeconomic studies could also be used to find additional solutions to increased competition among water users. These studies could also be used to determine how water transmission transfers that are below costs can be a burden to others inside and outside of the Colorado River Basin. Ultimately, a socioeconomic approach developed by the USGS, the Bureau of Reclamation, and State partners could help guide prioritization of water-resource allocation between domestic, industrial, agricultural, and commercial uses and potentially reduce conflicts between States, agricultural users, and urban areas.

Integrating Science through a Collaboration Portal

The development of a centralized science portal for the Colorado River Basin to disseminate data, form science connections, create communities, and act as a forum for science collaboration was a known stakeholder need recognized by science centers during the science delivery interviews. The USGS Science Collaboration Portal for the Colorado River Basin was created as a stakeholder engagement platform where two-way communication is the foundation, rather than a one-way communication model that is typical of standard web pages. The contribution from the 2023 Codesign Workshop Series consisted of specific case examples for science and data that could be delivered through the portal (table 5). This information was used to identify the initial content and functionality for the centralized portal and highlighted the need to develop an online format that facilitated interactivity through a community-based structure. The portal is a resource to:

A key feature of the portal includes the ability to post comments, have discussions about data, and join both private and public communities. Other features of the portal include the ability to search and access a curated list of spatial data layers, view the data layers on an interactive map, explore a set of communities with specific themes, and explore other projects and featured stories from within the Colorado River Basin. The evolution of the portal will be driven by continued stakeholder engagement and feedback on site content, structure, and functionality.

Best Practices for Workshop Engagement and Codevelopment

A postworkshop survey was distributed to all USGS core team participants and facilitators to gather feedback on the workshop experience and opportunities to improve future workshops. In large part, the participants who responded to the postworkshop survey reported that the workshops were a valuable use of their time and efforts, their team appreciated and respected team members, and they were able to build robust scientific concepts by incorporating the diverse skillsets and perspectives represented by their core team and stakeholders. Interactions with stakeholders through both formal workshop sessions and more informal office hours were also described as being helpful. Core team members described the length of the workshop as being reasonable, with sufficient time to complete documentation of workshop materials and templates and to collaborate effectively. However, they indicated that they could have used additional time for the following activities: (1) processing and synthesizing information from stakeholders and subject matter experts; (2) brainstorming, prioritizing, and refining project concepts; and (3) working across core teams when project ideas and concepts overlapped. Suggestions for workshop engagement and codevelopment best practices were as follows:

Outreach and Engagement

Future outreach and engagement with workshop participants and a broader range of stakeholders is needed to continue efforts on the Science Collaboration Portal, with emphasis on feedback and testing of site content, structure, and functionality, along with identification of additional data needs. Additional outreach and engagement with USGS scientists and interested stakeholders are also needed to advance project concepts into science actions. Each of the nine project concepts directly identified short-term goals or objectives to advance science or generate products beneficial to stakeholders. Short-term deliverables identified for each project concept included literature reviews and syntheses that would be structurally formatted to address pressing drought information and serve as a knowledge base to develop concepts into one or more project proposals. Other examples of short-term deliverables included data releases, models that can run newly incorporated data, and fact sheets or other information that can help inform stakeholders of existing information. Future outreach and engagement will be used to develop detailed steps for short-term objectives and deliverables and to develop project proposals. Each project concept may be associated with one or more project proposals to address immediate, short-, and long-term science objectives.

The ASIST team also plans to engage USGS scientists to determine if existing research can fill identified science gaps or be leveraged to strengthen observations across space and time directly. Leveraging existing capabilities often leads to improved efficiencies and quicker results. Expansion of current science efforts might require additional outreach and engagement with existing stakeholders who are already involved with or supporting ongoing science studies. Engagement with new stakeholders might be needed if current science efforts were to expand to locations other than the Colorado River Basin. Other ASIST team outreach and engagement activities to advance project concept proposals could include the following: