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Forecasting Volcanic Activity in Germany—A Multi-Criteria Approach

Professional Paper 1890-C
By: , , and 
https://doi.org/10.3133/pp1890C

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Abstract

Igneous activity, including shallow intrusions and volcanism, has the potential to disrupt underground critical infrastructure. Notably, future underground infrastructure projects like high-level radioactive waste repositories must be sited in areas of extremely low disruption probability by igneous activity. In Germany, according to the Repository Site Selection Act of 2017 (Standortauswahlgesetz, or StandAG), areas in which Quaternary volcanism is either present or future volcanic activity is expected within the next 1 million years (m.y.) must be excluded from the site selection process. Although the locations of regions with Quaternary volcanism are reasonably well known in Germany, forecasting potential igneous activity at intraplate volcanic fields is challenging, as many processes and their interactions control the spatial distribution of volcanic centers. Here, a semi-quantitative, multi-criteria approach is proposed for a regional evaluation of the relative potential of future igneous activity in Germany. A variety of geoscientific indicators are used, including seismic anomalies in Earth’s mantle, gravity data, tectonic activity, sutures, ground motion, earthquakes, mantle degassing centers, and geochronological data of volcanic rocks. The indicators describe the sequence of processes from potential melt generation in Earth’s mantle, through ascent and accumulation of melt within the lithosphere, to eruption at Earth’s surface. In total, 15 out of 30 proposed geoscientific indicators are selected and quantified using 20 total assigned parameters. Defined threshold values are used to spatially delimit relevant parameter properties to focus on areas with higher potential of future magmatic activity. To consider uncertainties of parameters and their underlying processes, which are usually more spatially extensive below ground, buffer zones are defined in which values of relevance decrease with increasing distance from the initial lateral shape of a parameter. Normalized parameters are combined into an index, whose spatial value distribution is used to differentiate the relative potential of future igneous activity (within the next 1 m.y.). The sensitivity of the results is shown by varying the weighting factors for the relevant parameters in country-wide index maps. Thereby, profiles illustrate the distribution of the resulting index values and respective index fractions of various parameters. Different index maps for the relative potential of future igneous activity are presented and can be used for hazard assessments.

Suggested Citation

Bartels, A., Rummel, L., and May, F., 2026, Forecasting igneous activity in Germany—A multi-criteria approach, chap. C of Poland, M.P., Ort, M.H., Stovall, W.K., Vaughan, R.G., Connor, C.B., and Rumpf, M.E., eds., Distributed volcanism—Characteristics, processes, and hazards: U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 1890, 42 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/pp1890C.

ISSN: 2330-7102 (online)

Table of Contents

  • Acknowledgments
  • Abstract
  • Introduction
  • Geological Background
  • Methods
  • Results
  • Discussion
  • Summary and Conclusion
  • References Cited
  • Appendix 1
  • Appendix 2
Publication type Report
Publication Subtype USGS Numbered Series
Title Forecasting volcanic activity in Germany—A multi-criteria approach
Series title Professional Paper
Series number 1890
Chapter C
DOI 10.3133/pp1890C
Publication Date March 02, 2026
Year Published 2026
Language English
Publisher U.S. Geological Survey
Publisher location Reston, VA
Contributing office(s) Volcano Science Center
Description Report: iv, 42 p.
Online Only (Y/N) Y
Additional publication details