thumbnail

Climate Change and Future Water Availability in the United States

Professional Paper 1894-E
Water Availability and Use Science Program and National Water Quality Program
By: , , , and 
https://doi.org/10.3133/pp1894E

Links

Abstract

The steady rise in global temperature as a result of human activity is causing changes in Earth’s water cycle. The balance of water stored within and moving between vapor, liquid, and frozen states in the water cycle is shifting, with consequences for water availability that include increases in drought, fire weather, flooding, and heavy precipitation, as well as cryosphere decline and sea-level rise. In this chapter of the U.S. Geological Survey Integrated Water Availability Assessment—2010–20, we provide an overview of climate-change observations and projections from Earth-system model simulations that relate to future water availability, from global and national climate assessments and from the published literature. Effects of climate change on primary water-cycle components are discussed in context of how global-scale hydroclimate drivers influence regional processes within the United States. Understanding the major climate drivers impacting the water cycle is crucial to predicting future changes in water availability and developing adaptation strategies to ensure human and ecosystem water supplies. First, we provide background information on the water cycle, the climate-model ensemble simulations developed to produce projections based on warming scenarios, and attribution and certainty levels. Tipping points, self-reinforcing feedbacks, cascading effects, and compound extremes are introduced. The framework of climatic impact drivers (CIDs) outlined in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report (IPCC AR6) is used to show primary drivers of physical change to the water cycle and to understand and predict changes in future water availability. Specific climate-change related observations and projections are discussed for water cycle components of precipitation, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, streamflow, lakes and wetlands, ice and snow, and groundwater, as well as their implications for future water availability for humans and ecosystems. The chapter concludes with a synthesis discussion of three examples of complex regional-scale hydroclimate processes that influence water availability for populations in the United States, including (1) mountain and coastal precipitation, (2) aridification and drought, and (3) the influence of forest-cover change on terrestrial water-vapor recycling.

Suggested Citation

Scholl, M.A., McCabe, G.J., Olson, C.G., and Powlen, K.A., 2025, Climate change and future water availability in the United States, chap. E of U.S. Geological Survey Integrated Water Availability Assessment—2010–20: U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 1894–E, 60 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/pp1894E.

ISSN: 2330-7102 (online)

Table of Contents

  • Preface
  • Abstract
  • Key Points
  • Introduction
  • Climate-Change Impacts on Water-Cycle Components
  • Complex Regional-Scale System Processes Affecting Water Availability
  • Summary
  • Acknowledgments
  • References Cited
  • Glossary
Publication type Report
Publication Subtype USGS Numbered Series
Title Climate change and future water availability in the United States
Series title Professional Paper
Series number 1894
Chapter E
DOI 10.3133/pp1894E
Year Published 2025
Language English
Publisher U.S. Geological Survey
Publisher location Reston, VA
Contributing office(s) WMA - Earth System Processes Division
Description Report: viii, 60 p.
Online Only (Y/N) Y
Additional Online Files (Y/N) N
Google Analytic Metrics Metrics page
Additional publication details