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Development of Projected Depth-Duration-Frequency Curves (2050–89) for South Florida

Scientific Investigations Report 2022-5093
Prepared in cooperation with the South Florida Water Management District
By: , , , and 
https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20225093

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Abstract

Planning stormwater projects requires estimates of current and future extreme precipitation depths for events with specified return periods and durations. In this study, precipitation data from four downscaled climate datasets are used to determine changes in precipitation depth-duration-frequency curves from the period 1966–2005 to the period 2050–89 primarily on the basis of Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. The four downscaled climate datasets are (1) the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) dataset, (2) the Localized Constructed Analogs (LOCA) dataset, (3) the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) dataset, and (4) the Jupiter Intelligence Weather Research and Forecasting Model (JupiterWRF) dataset. Change factors—multiplicative changes in expected extreme precipitation magnitude from current to future period—were computed for grid cells from the downscaled climate datasets containing National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Atlas 14 stations in central and south Florida. Change factors for specific durations and return periods may be used to scale the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Atlas 14 historical depth-duration-frequency values to the period 2050–89 on the basis of changes in extreme precipitation derived from downscaled climate datasets. Model culling was implemented to select downscaled climate models that best captured observed historical patterns of precipitation extremes in central and south Florida.

Overall, a large variation in change factors across downscaled climate datasets was found, with change factors generally greater than one and increasing with return period. In general, median change factors were higher for the south-central Florida climate region (1.05–1.55 depending on downscaled climate dataset, duration, and return period) than for the south Florida climate region (1–1.4 depending on downscaled climate dataset, duration, and return period) when considering best performing models for both areas, indicating a projected overall increase in future extreme precipitation events.

Suggested Citation

Irizarry-Ortiz, M.M., Stamm, J.F., Maran, C., and Obeysekera, J., 2022, Development of projected depth-duration frequency curves (2050–89) for south Florida: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2022–5093, 114 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20225093.

ISSN: 2328-0328 (online)

Study Area

Table of Contents

  • Acknowledgments
  • Abstract
  • Introduction
  • Datasets Used in This Study
  • Methods
  • Results
  • Summary and Conclusions
  • References Cited
  • Appendix 1. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Atlas 14 Stations
  • Appendix 2. Description of Analog Resampling and Statistical Scaling Method by Jupiter Intelligence Using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model
  • Appendix 3. Parametric Bootstrapping
Publication type Report
Publication Subtype USGS Numbered Series
Title Development of projected depth-duration frequency curves (2050–89) for south Florida
Series title Scientific Investigations Report
Series number 2022-5093
DOI 10.3133/sir20225093
Year Published 2022
Language English
Publisher U.S. Geological Survey
Publisher location Reston, VA
Contributing office(s) Caribbean-Florida Water Science Center
Description Report: xii, 114 p.; 1 Table; Data Release
Country United States
State Florida
Online Only (Y/N) Y
Google Analytic Metrics Metrics page
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