Peak Streamflow Trends in Michigan and Their Relation to Changes in Climate, Water Years 1921–2020

Scientific Investigations Report 2023-5064-D
Prepared in cooperation with Papio-Missouri River Natural Resources District, the Nebraska Natural Resources Commission, and the Nebraska Department of Natural Resources
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Abstract

This study characterizes hydroclimatic variability and change in peak streamflow and daily streamflow in Michigan from water years 1921 through 2020. Four analysis periods were examined: the 100-year period from water year 1921 through 2020, the 75-year period from water year 1946 through 2020, the 50-year period from water year 1971 through 2020, and the 30-year period from water year 1991 through 2020. Peak streamflow and climate data were available at 4, 29, 50, and 30 streamgages in the 100-, 75-, 50-, and 30-year periods, respectively. Daily streamflow was available for 4, 29, 74, and 79 streamgages in the 100-, 75-, 50-, and 30-year periods, respectively.


Peak streamflow for each streamgage and analysis period was assessed for monotonic trends and change points. Trends in peak streamflow were predominantly upward, with some isolated downward trends throughout the southern half of Michigan for all four analysis periods. Trends in the Upper Peninsula were downward in 75- and 50-year analysis periods and upward or neutral in the 30-year period. Upward trends in peak flows were largely driven by increases in precipitation, which occurred at nearly every streamgage in all analysis periods, with the greatest magnitude trends in winter and spring in the 50- and 30-year periods.

Suggested Citation

Levin, S.B., 2024, Peak streamflow trends in Michigan and their relation to changes in climate, water years 1921–2020, chap D of Ryberg, K.R. comp., Peak streamflow trends and their relation to changes in climate in Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2023–5064, 49 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20235064D.

ISSN: 2328-0328 (online)

Study Area

Table of Contents

  • Acknowledgments
  • Abstract
  • Introduction
  • Purpose and Scope
  • Description of Study Area
  • Brief History of U.S. Geological Survey Peak-Flow Data Collection in Michigan
  • Brief History of Statistical Analysis of Peak Streamflow and Nonstationarity
  • Review of Research Relating to Climatic Variability and Change
  • Data and Methods
  • Results of Streamflow and Climate Analyses
  • Discussion and Implications for Flood-Frequency Analysis
  • Summary
  • References Cited
Publication type Report
Publication Subtype USGS Numbered Series
Title Peak streamflow trends in Michigan and their relation to changes in climate, water years 1921–2020
Series title Scientific Investigations Report
Series number 2023-5064
Chapter D
DOI 10.3133/sir20235064D
Year Published 2024
Language English
Publisher U.S. Geological Survey
Publisher location U.S. Geological Survey
Contributing office(s) Upper Midwest Water Science Center
Description Report: viii, 49 p., Data Release
Larger Work Type Report
Larger Work Subtype USGS Numbered Series
Larger Work Title Peak Streamflow Trends and Their Relation to Changes in Climate in Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin
Country United States
State Michigan
Online Only (Y/N) Y
Google Analytic Metrics Metrics page
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