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Characterizing Changes in the 1-Percent Annual Exceedance Probability Streamflows for Climate-Change Scenarios in the Housatonic River Watershed of Massachusetts, Connecticut, and New York

Scientific Investigations Report 2023-5090
Prepared in cooperation with the Federal Emergency Management Agency
By:
https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20235090

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Abstract

Current methods for determining the 1-percent annual exceedance probability (AEP) for a streamflow assume stationarity (the assumption that the statistical distribution of data from past observations does not contain trends and will continue unchanged in the future). This assumption allows the 1-percent AEP to be determined based on historical streamflow records. However, the assumption of stationarity is challenged by observed trends in streamflow records.

In response, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Federal Emergency Management Agency, studied potential changes to the 1-percent AEP streamflows at streamgages in the Housatonic River watershed in Massachusetts, Connecticut, and New York. The study used the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System—a deterministic hydrologic model. Climate inputs to the model of temperature and precipitation were scaled to anticipated changes based on global climate models that could occur in 2030, 2050, and 2100. The model outputs were used to characterize the 1-percent AEP streamflows for 2030, 2050, and 2100 and compare the results to baseline conditions for 1950 to 2015. Results indicated that the 1-percent AEP streamflow for unregulated streams and rivers may increase from the 1950–2015 baseline period by 7.4, 11.7, and 17.3 percent in 2030, 2050, and 2100, respectively, because of climate change.

Suggested Citation

Olson, S.A., 2023, Characterizing changes in the 1-percent annual exceedance probability streamflows for climate-change scenarios in the Housatonic River watershed of Massachusetts, Connecticut, and New York: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2023–5090, 16 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20235090.

ISSN: 2328-0328 (online)

Study Area

Table of Contents

  • Abstract
  • Introduction
  • Overview of Study Methodology
  • Hydrologic Model
  • Climate-Change Scenarios
  • Model Runs With Future Climate Scenarios
  • Summary
  • References Cited
Publication type Report
Publication Subtype USGS Numbered Series
Title Characterizing changes in the 1-percent annual exceedance probability streamflows for climate-change scenarios in the Housatonic River watershed of Massachusetts, Connecticut, and New York
Series title Scientific Investigations Report
Series number 2023-5090
DOI 10.3133/sir20235090
Year Published 2023
Language English
Publisher U.S. Geological Survey
Publisher location Reston, VA
Contributing office(s) New England Water Science Center
Description Report: iv, 16 p.; Data Release
Country United States
State Connecticut, Massachusetts, New York
Other Geospatial Housatonic River watershed
Online Only (Y/N) Y
Additional Online Files (Y/N) N
Google Analytic Metrics Metrics page
Additional publication details