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A Predictive Analysis of Water Use for Providence, Rhode Island

Scientific Investigations Report 2024-5052
Prepared in cooperation with Providence Water
By:
https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20245052

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Abstract

To explain the drivers of historical water use in the public water systems (PWSs) that serve populations in Providence, Rhode Island, and surrounding areas, and to forecast future water use, a machine-learning model (cubist regression) was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with Providence Water to model daily per capita rates of domestic, commercial, and industrial water use. The PWSs in this area form a connected network that sources water from the Scituate Reservoir in Rhode Island. The cubist regression model was trained and tested on daily per capita rates for three categories of water use (domestic, commercial, and industrial) that were developed from quarterly water sales data and U.S. Census Bureau population estimates within each PWS service area from January 2005 through December 2021. The model was then used to make forecasts of future water use under varying scenarios of climate change, population growth, and economic growth for the years 2030 and 2040.

The resulting daily per capita rates, which were modeled from the historical data, had an r2 value of 0.94 and root mean square error of 6.7 gallons per capita daily. Results of the model were used to estimate total water use (the product of daily per capita rates and population) for all public water systems over the historical study period. Daily per capita rates in the study area decreased from 2005 to 2021, while population increased during that same period. “Category of water use” was the variable with the greatest explanatory power for modeling daily per capita rates. Overall, both daily per capita rates and total water use were projected to decrease in 2030 and 2040, in comparison to historical values from 2005 to 2021. Daily per capita rates and total water use were forecasted to decrease as economic growth rates increase. Daily per capita rates were expected to decrease as population growth rates increase; however, total water use was less sensitive to population growth rates than daily per capita rates. Effects of climate change were minimal over the 2030 and 2040 forecasting horizon for the scenarios tested.

Suggested Citation

Chamberlin, C.A., 2024, A predictive analysis of water use for Providence, Rhode Island: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2024–5052, 36 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20245052.

ISSN: 2328-0328 (online)

Table of Contents

  • Acknowledgements
  • Abstract
  • Introduction
  • Methods
  • Results
  • Discussion
  • Summary
  • References Cited
Publication type Report
Publication Subtype USGS Numbered Series
Title A predictive analysis of water use for Providence, Rhode Island
Series title Scientific Investigations Report
Series number 2024-5052
DOI 10.3133/sir20245052
Year Published 2024
Language English
Publisher U.S. Geological Survey
Publisher location Reston, VA
Contributing office(s) New England Water Science Center
Description Report: viii, 36 p.; Data release
Online Only (Y/N) Y
Additional Online Files (Y/N) N
Google Analytic Metrics Metrics page
Additional publication details