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Estimating Groundwater Level Records Using MOVE.1 and Computing Monthly Percentiles From Estimated Groundwater Records in Massachusetts

Scientific Investigations Report 2024-5080
Prepared in cooperation with the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection
By:  and 
https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20245080

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Abstract

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection, performed record extensions on groundwater levels at select wells using the Maintenance of Variance Extension type 1 (MOVE.1) method. The groundwater levels estimated from these record extensions were used to compute monthly percentiles to improve future determinations of a groundwater index. In Massachusetts, 27 of 29 short-record study wells with continuous groundwater levels between 0.8 and 8.1 years were suitable for record extensions; 37 long-record index wells were used to extend the groundwater level records at the study wells. The index well selected to pair with a study well was chosen based on Pearson correlation coefficient values; cross-correlation between the two wells; geologic and topographic similarity; and smallest distance spanning the wells. Each study well and its corresponding index well have 1 or more years of concurrent, overlapping data; a Pearson correlation coefficient that exceeded a threshold value of 0.8; and a similar aquifer type and hydrologic characteristics. Of the 29 study wells, 2 showed poor correlations with all index wells and were not considered for record extensions.

Performance metrics used to assess the accuracy of the MOVE.1 models indicated that most models provided reasonable estimates of groundwater levels. Root mean square error values ranged from 0.097 to 2.292 feet, with a median of 0.536 foot. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient values ranged from 0.623 to 0.996, with a median value of 0.759. Generally, study wells in close geographical proximity to their index well resulted in stronger model performance.

The average length of groundwater level records was extended by 14.1 years to a new average of 18.1 years. The estimated groundwater level records from the MOVE.1 models resulted in an increase in the range of highest and lowest groundwater levels at 23 of 27 wells. The increase in range of groundwater levels was between 0.08 to 7.95 feet. Monthly percentiles for State drought indices were computed from the estimated MOVE.1 records and observed records through December 31, 2021. Percentiles computed from estimated records show an average groundwater level about 1.0 foot lower than observed data at the 2d percentile and 0.1 foot lower at the 30th percentile.

Suggested Citation

Ahearn, E.A., and Crozier, D.E., 2024, Estimating groundwater level records using MOVE.1 and computing monthly percentiles from estimated groundwater records in Massachusetts: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2024–5080, 38 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20245080.

ISSN: 2328-0328 (online)

Study Area

Table of Contents

  • Abstract
  • Introduction
  • Well Network
  • Development of MOVE.1 Models for the Extension of Groundwater Level Records
  • Computation of Monthly Percentiles From Estimated Records
  • Summary
  • Acknowledgments
  • Selected References
  • Appendix 1. U.S. Geological Survey Climate Response Network of Groundwater Wells in Massachusetts, 2022
  • Appendix 2. Monthly Percentiles at Study Wells With Record Extensions
Publication type Report
Publication Subtype USGS Numbered Series
Title Estimating groundwater level records using MOVE.1 and computing monthly percentiles from estimated groundwater records in Massachusetts
Series title Scientific Investigations Report
Series number 2024-5080
DOI 10.3133/sir20245080
Year Published 2024
Language English
Publisher U.S. Geological Survey
Publisher location Reston, VA
Contributing office(s) New England Water Science Center
Description Report: iv, 38 p.; Data Release
Country United States
State Massachusetts
Online Only (Y/N) Y
Additional Online Files (Y/N) N
Google Analytic Metrics Metrics page
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