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Use of a Numerical Groundwater-Flow Model and Projected Climate Scenarios To Simulate the Effects of Future Climate Conditions on Base Flow for Reach 1 of the Washita River Alluvial Aquifer and Foss Reservoir Storage, Western Oklahoma

Scientific Investigations Report 2024-5082
Prepared in cooperation with Bureau of Reclamation
By: , , , , and 
https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20245082

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Abstract

To better understand the relation between climate variability and future groundwater resources in reach 1 of the Washita River alluvial aquifer and Foss Reservoir in western Oklahoma, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation, used a previously published numerical groundwater-flow model and climate-model data to investigate changes in base flow and reservoir storage by evaluating three scenarios. The three projected climate scenarios were (1) a central-tendency scenario, (2) a warmer/drier scenario, and (3) a less-warm/wetter scenario. To estimate future base flow and groundwater availability in western Oklahoma, specifically in reach 1 of the Washita River alluvial aquifer, downscaled climate-model data from 231 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) projections coupled with a previously published numerical groundwater-flow model were used to compare the effects of different climate scenarios on the aquifer. Changes in base flow and groundwater-level elevations during a 30-year baseline scenario (1985–2014) and the three 30-year projected climate scenarios (2050–79) under central-tendency, warmer/drier, and less-warm/wetter climatic conditions were assessed by using the calibrated model. In the simulations, the amount of base flow and reservoir storage declined in the central-tendency and warmer/drier scenarios compared to the amount of base flow and reservoir storage under historical climatic conditions (baseline scenario). Mean annual change in reservoir storage decreased from the baseline scenario the most in the warmer/drier scenario, followed by the central-tendency scenario, but increased in the less-warm/wetter scenario compared to the baseline scenario. At the end of the simulation period (2079), the largest magnitude differences in groundwater-level elevations in all three projected climate scenarios relative to the baseline scenario occurred upstream from Foss Reservoir. Results from incorporating downscaled climate projections into localized numerical groundwater-flow models can highlight potential future changes in and implications for groundwater resources and availability.

Suggested Citation

Labriola, L.G., Ellis, J.H., Gangopadhyay, S., Kirstetter, P.E., and Hong, Y., 2024, Use of a numerical groundwater-flow model and projected climate scenarios to simulate the effects of future climate conditions on base flow for reach 1 of the Washita River alluvial aquifer and Foss Reservoir storage, western Oklahoma: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2024–5082, 20 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20245082.

ISSN: 2328-0328 (online)

Table of Contents

  • Acknowledgments
  • Abstract
  • Introduction
  • Climate Projections and the Numerical Groundwater-Flow Model for Reach 1 of the Washita River Alluvial Aquifer
  • Simulated Effects of Future Climate Conditions on Base Flow and Reservoir Storage
  • Summary
  • References Cited
Publication type Report
Publication Subtype USGS Numbered Series
Title Use of a numerical groundwater-flow model and projected climate scenarios to simulate the effects of future climate conditions on base flow for reach 1 of the Washita River alluvial aquifer and Foss Reservoir storage, western Oklahoma
Series title Scientific Investigations Report
Series number 2024-5082
DOI 10.3133/sir20245082
Year Published 2024
Language English
Publisher U.S. Geological Survey
Publisher location Reston, VA
Contributing office(s) Oklahoma-Texas Water Science Center
Description Report: viii, 20 p.; Datasets, Data Release
Online Only (Y/N) Y
Google Analytic Metrics Metrics page
Additional publication details