Use of a Numerical Groundwater-Flow Model and Projected Climate Scenarios To Simulate the Effects of Future Climate Conditions on Base Flow for Reach 1 of the Washita River Alluvial Aquifer and Foss Reservoir Storage, Western Oklahoma
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- Document: Report (1.86 MB pdf) , HTML , XML
- Datasets:
- USGS Water Data for the Nation - USGS NWIS database
- USGS Water Data for Oklahoma - USGS NWIS water data for Oklahoma
- Data Release: USGS Data Release - MODFLOW-NWT model data used to simulate base flow and groundwater availability under different future climatic conditions for reach 1 of the Washita River alluvial aquifer and Foss Reservoir, western Oklahoma
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Abstract
To better understand the relation between climate variability and future groundwater resources in reach 1 of the Washita River alluvial aquifer and Foss Reservoir in western Oklahoma, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation, used a previously published numerical groundwater-flow model and climate-model data to investigate changes in base flow and reservoir storage by evaluating three scenarios. The three projected climate scenarios were (1) a central-tendency scenario, (2) a warmer/drier scenario, and (3) a less-warm/wetter scenario. To estimate future base flow and groundwater availability in western Oklahoma, specifically in reach 1 of the Washita River alluvial aquifer, downscaled climate-model data from 231 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) projections coupled with a previously published numerical groundwater-flow model were used to compare the effects of different climate scenarios on the aquifer. Changes in base flow and groundwater-level elevations during a 30-year baseline scenario (1985–2014) and the three 30-year projected climate scenarios (2050–79) under central-tendency, warmer/drier, and less-warm/wetter climatic conditions were assessed by using the calibrated model. In the simulations, the amount of base flow and reservoir storage declined in the central-tendency and warmer/drier scenarios compared to the amount of base flow and reservoir storage under historical climatic conditions (baseline scenario). Mean annual change in reservoir storage decreased from the baseline scenario the most in the warmer/drier scenario, followed by the central-tendency scenario, but increased in the less-warm/wetter scenario compared to the baseline scenario. At the end of the simulation period (2079), the largest magnitude differences in groundwater-level elevations in all three projected climate scenarios relative to the baseline scenario occurred upstream from Foss Reservoir. Results from incorporating downscaled climate projections into localized numerical groundwater-flow models can highlight potential future changes in and implications for groundwater resources and availability.
Suggested Citation
Labriola, L.G., Ellis, J.H., Gangopadhyay, S., Kirstetter, P.E., and Hong, Y., 2024, Use of a numerical groundwater-flow model and projected climate scenarios to simulate the effects of future climate conditions on base flow for reach 1 of the Washita River alluvial aquifer and Foss Reservoir storage, western Oklahoma: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2024–5082, 20 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20245082.
ISSN: 2328-0328 (online)
Study Area
Table of Contents
- Acknowledgments
- Abstract
- Introduction
- Climate Projections and the Numerical Groundwater-Flow Model for Reach 1 of the Washita River Alluvial Aquifer
- Simulated Effects of Future Climate Conditions on Base Flow and Reservoir Storage
- Summary
- References Cited
| Publication type | Report |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | USGS Numbered Series |
| Title | Use of a numerical groundwater-flow model and projected climate scenarios to simulate the effects of future climate conditions on base flow for reach 1 of the Washita River alluvial aquifer and Foss Reservoir storage, western Oklahoma |
| Series title | Scientific Investigations Report |
| Series number | 2024-5082 |
| DOI | 10.3133/sir20245082 |
| Year Published | 2024 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | U.S. Geological Survey |
| Publisher location | Reston, VA |
| Contributing office(s) | Oklahoma-Texas Water Science Center |
| Description | Report: viii, 20 p.; 2 Datasets, Data Release |
| Country | United States |
| State | Oklahoma |
| Other Geospatial | Washita River alluvial aquifer and Foss Reservoir storage |
| Online Only (Y/N) | Y |