Hydrologic and Hydraulic Analyses of Silver Creek and Selected Tributaries Associated with Scott Air Force Base, Illinois, 2022–24
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- Document: Report (57 MB pdf) , HTML , XML
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- U.S. Department of Agriculture, Natural Resources Conservation Service database - GeoSpatial data gateway
- USGS National Water Information System database - USGS water data for the Nation
- Data Release: USGS data release - Archive of hydrologic and hydraulic models used in the analyses of Silver Creek Basin and selected tributaries associated with Scott Air Force Base, Illinois, 1992–2050
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Abstract
A hydrologic model of the Silver Creek Basin in southwest Illinois, and a hydraulic model of a selected reach of Silver Creek and local tributaries on and near Scott Air Force Base, Illinois, were developed to assess the effects of temporal land-use development in the Silver Creek Basin, the potential effects of projected changes based on future precipitation, and the effects of added detention storage in selected tributaries near Scott Air Force Base. The hydrologic model consists of a total of 52 scenarios—24 scenarios for an assessment of basin-wide changes in hydrology, and 28 scenarios for the hydraulic analysis of a focus area of Silver Creek and tributaries on and near Scott Air Force Base. Scenarios were run for precipitation events of 2-year through 500-year recurrence intervals (50-percent through 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability) and 24-hour durations.
The effects of detention structures added to Silver Creek tributaries throughout Scott Air Force Base were greater on water-level profiles (about 1 to 3 feet) than the effects of projected (2050) changes in precipitation (about 1 foot or less) in these basins. The results indicated that despite the increases in water-surface elevations resulting from projected increases in precipitation, the detention structures could provide a net reduction in water-surface elevations in the flood-prone western tributaries on the base. The effects of detention structures and projected precipitation also were assessed using the mapped extent of inundation for the simulated probabilistic precipitation scenarios. As an example, limited inundation of a residential area along Ash Creek was evident in the 5-year recurrence interval event for the scenarios without detention storage, whereas the first indications of flooding in the residential area from the scenario with detention storage were in the 50-year recurrence interval event.
Changes in hydrologic conditions followed a spatial pattern similar to that of the changes in land-cover development, with the greatest changes in the downstream one-half of the Silver Creek Basin and most pronounced in subbasins on and surrounding Scott Air Force Base. There was up to an estimated 54.6-percent increase in peak streamflows in subbasins on or near Scott Air Force Base from historical (1992) to current (2019) conditions, but changes in peak streamflows of as much as 144 percent are anticipated under the planned (to about 2050) land cover plus projected (2050) precipitation. The changes in the timing of peak streamflows were towards earlier peaks, with cumulative changes between historical and projected conditions approaching 0.75 hour (45 minutes) for a 2-year recurrence interval event. Results of the percentage change in cumulative event volume were similar to those of percentage change in peak streamflows in terms of magnitude of change and temporal and spatial distribution of changes. The greatest magnitude of percentage change in the assessed hydrologic properties was associated with the 2-year recurrence interval event, and the magnitude of the percentage change decreased with increasing probabilistic event recurrence interval. Subbasins with a substantial change in runoff yield between historical and current conditions were primarily in the downstream one-half of the Silver Creek Basin and most were within or adjacent to Scott Air Force Base. The magnitude of runoff yield changes increased with recurrence interval, and maximum changes were associated with subbasins on base and with the changes between the historical and current conditions.
Suggested Citation
Cigrand, C.V., Heimann, D.C., and Rydlund, P.H., Jr., 2024, Hydrologic and hydraulic analyses of Silver Creek and selected tributaries associated with Scott Air Force Base, Illinois, 2022–24: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2024–5117, 87 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20245117.
ISSN: 2328-0328 (online)
Study Area
Table of Contents
- Acknowledgments
- Abstract
- Introduction
- Hydrologic and Hydraulic Model Development
- Basin-Scale Assessment of the Effects of Projected Land-Cover Change and Projected Climate Conditions
- Assessment of Hydraulic Effects of Added Detention Storage and Projected Climate Conditions
- Summary
- References Cited
- Appendix 1. Water-Surface Elevation Profiles of Silver Creek, Little Silver Creek, Unnamed Tributary 1, and Unnamed Tributary 2
| Publication type | Report |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | USGS Numbered Series |
| Title | Hydrologic and hydraulic analyses of Silver Creek and selected tributaries associated with Scott Air Force Base, Illinois, 2022–24 |
| Series title | Scientific Investigations Report |
| Series number | 2024-5117 |
| DOI | 10.3133/sir20245117 |
| Year Published | 2024 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | U.S. Geological Survey |
| Publisher location | Reston, VA |
| Contributing office(s) | Central Midwest Water Science Center |
| Description | Report: x, 87 p.; Data Release; 2 Datasets |
| Country | United States |
| State | Illinois |
| Other Geospatial | Scott Air Force Base, Silver Creek |
| Online Only (Y/N) | Y |
| Additional Online Files (Y/N) | N |
| Google Analytic Metrics | Metrics page |