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Predictions of Elk and Chronic Wasting Disease Dynamics in the National Elk Refuge in Jackson, Wyoming, and Surrounding Areas

Scientific Investigations Report 2024-5119-B
Ecosystems Mission Area—Biological Threats & Invasive Species Program and the Environmental Health Program
Prepared in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Agriculture, National Park Service, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and Wyoming Game and Fish Department
By: , , and 
https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20245119B

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Abstract

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service National Elk Refuge (NER) in Jackson, Wyoming, supplementally feeds Cervus elaphus canadensis (elk) and Bison bison (American bison) during winter months, but the costs and benefits of this management strategy are being reevaluated considering the potential effects of chronic wasting disease (CWD) on elk. U.S. Geological Survey scientists worked with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service on a structured decision-making process that considered five alternative feeding strategies and their effects on bison, elk, and humans. This chapter focuses on elk population dynamics and CWD using computer models. Our modeling results highlight a short- versus long-term tradeoff between the continue feeding and no feeding alternatives. Management alternatives associated with a cessation of supplemental feeding were assumed to make elk more susceptible to severe winters, resulting in initially lower population sizes and less CWD transmission. The increased CWD prevalence and transmission associated with the continue feeding alternative resulted in lower elk population sizes by year 20 (mean=6,700, standard deviation=1,600 in the analysis area) in 70 percent of simulations compared to no feeding (mean=8,400, standard deviation=1,500). No feeding alternatives resulted in higher elk populations than the continue feeding alternative between years 7 and 13 when CWD prevalence exceeded 20 percent in the Jackson elk herd. The increased harvest alternative minimized CWD and natural mortality in 83 out of 100 simulations compared to the continue feeding alternative.

Suggested Citation

Cross, P.C., Cook, J.D., and Cole, E.K., 2025, Predictions of elk and chronic wasting disease dynamics at the National Elk Refuge in Jackson, Wyoming, and surrounding areas, chap. B of Cook, J.D., and Cross, P.C., eds., Decision analysis in support of the National Elk Refuge bison and elk management plan: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2024–5119, 22 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20245119B.

ISSN: 2328-0328 (online)

Study Area

Table of Contents

  • Acknowledgments
  • Abstract
  • Introduction
  • Methods
  • Results
  • Discussion
  • Summary
  • References Cited
  • Appendix B1. Additional Model Details
  • Appendix B2. Expert Elicitation
Publication type Report
Publication Subtype USGS Numbered Series
Title Predictions of elk and chronic wasting disease dynamics at the National Elk Refuge in Jackson, Wyoming, and surrounding areas
Series title Scientific Investigations Report
Series number 2024-5119
Chapter B
DOI 10.3133/sir20245119B
Year Published 2025
Language English
Publisher U.S. Geological Survey
Publisher location Reston, VA
Contributing office(s) Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center
Description Report: vi, 22 p.; Software releaseR
Country United States
State Wyoming
City Jackson
Other Geospatial National Elk Refuge
Online Only (Y/N) Y
Additional Online Files (Y/N) N
Google Analytic Metrics Metrics page
Additional publication details