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Using the D-Claw Software Package to Model Lahars in the Middle Fork Nooksack River Drainage and Beyond, Mount Baker, Washington

Scientific Investigations Report 2024-5133
By: , , , and 
https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20245133

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Abstract

Lahars, or volcanic mudflows, are the most hazardous eruption-related phenomena that will affect communities living along rivers that originate on Mount Baker. In the past 15,000 years, the largest lahars from Mount Baker have affected the Middle Fork Nooksack River drainage and beyond. Here we use the physics-based D-Claw software package to model nine lahar scenarios that are initiated as water-saturated landslides between Sherman Crater and the Roman Wall on the Mount Baker edifice and flow down the Middle Fork Nooksack River. The scenarios range in volume from 1 to 260 million cubic meters and have an initial hydraulic permeability from 10−12 to 10−10 meters squared. Model output includes data such as flow depth, velocity, runout distance, area inundated, arrival time, and sediment concentration as well as information that allows scientists to calculate other important hydrologic characteristics such as lahar discharge. These data are important to officials who have the responsibility to plan for, or take mitigation measures against, future Mount Baker lahars. To check the validity of the D-Claw results, we compare the scenarios to known geologic information. We also compare D-Claw results with empirical models that have been used in the past to determine potential inundation areas, runout distances, and arrival times. These comparisons highlight similarities and differences between empirical and physics-based models. We also present D-Claw scenario-based animations to help scientists, officials, and lay people alike to visualize how future lahars could affect communities.

Suggested Citation

Gardner, C.A., Benage, M.C., Cannon, C., and George, D.L., 2025, Using the D-Claw software package to model lahars in the Middle Fork Nooksack River drainage and beyond, Mount Baker, Washington: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2024–5133, 47 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20245133.

ISSN: 2328-0328 (online)

Study Area

Table of Contents

  • Abstract
  • Introduction
  • Lahars and Major Debris Flows in the Middle Fork Nooksack River Valley During the Past 15,000 Years
  • Methods
  • General Results
  • Specific Scenarios
  • Discussion
  • Conclusion
  • References Cited
  • Appendix 1. Reference Point Locations in Latitude and Longitude
  • Appendix 2. Timing, Depth, Speed, Solid Volume Fraction, and Cessation of Movement for the Nine D-Claw Scenarios
  • Appendix 3. D-Claw simulation hydrographs for scenarios C2, D2, and E2
  • Appendix 4. Animated Simulations
Publication type Report
Publication Subtype USGS Numbered Series
Title Using the D-Claw software package to model lahars in the Middle Fork Nooksack River drainage and beyond, Mount Baker, Washington
Series title Scientific Investigations Report
Series number 2024-5133
DOI 10.3133/sir20245133
Publication Date May 12, 2025
Year Published 2025
Language English
Publisher U.S. Geological Survey
Publisher location Reston, VA
Contributing office(s) Geology, Minerals, Energy, and Geophysics Science Center, Volcano Science Center
Description Report: vii, 47 p.; 9 Animation Videos; Data Release
Country United States
State Washington
Other Geospatial Middle Fork Nooksack River, Mount Baker
Additional publication details