Decision analysis in support of the National Elk Refuge bison and elk management plan

doi:10.3133/sir20255076

Decision Analysis in Support of the National Elk Refuge Bison and Elk Management Plan

Scientific Investigations Report 2025-5076

Ecosystems Mission Area—Biological Threats & Invasive Species Research Program, Environmental Health Program, and the Species Management Research Program

Prepared in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Agriculture, National Park Service, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and Wyoming Game and Fish Department

Edited by: Jonathan D. Cook and Paul C. Cross

https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20255076

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Document: Report (13.5 MB pdf)
Chapters:

Chapter A : Decision Framing Overview and Performance of Management Alternatives for Bison and Elk Feedground Management at the National Elk Refuge in Jackson, Wyoming

Chapter B : Predictions of Elk and Chronic Wasting Disease Dynamics in the National Elk Refuge in Jackson, Wyoming, and Surrounding Areas

Chapter C : Evaluating Elk Distribution and Conflict Under Proposed Management Alternatives at the National Elk Refuge in Jackson, Wyoming

Chapter D : Bison Population Dynamics, Harvest, and Human Conflict Potential Under Feedground Management Alternatives at the National Elk Refuge in Jackson, Wyoming

Chapter E : Estimating the Social and Economic Consequences of Proposed Management Alternatives at the National Elk Refuge in Jackson, Wyoming

Chapter F : Predictions of Elk, Chronic Wasting Disease Dynamics, and Socioeconomics Under Alternative D at the National Elk Refuge in Jackson, Wyoming, and Surrounding Areas

Software Releases:
- USGS software release - Jackson bison population projections
- USGS software release - Supporting code for—Evaluating elk distribution and conflict under proposed management alternatives at the National Elk Refuge in Jackson, Wyoming
- USGS software release - CWD software code for simulating elk and chronic wasting disease dynamics on the National Elk Refuge (version 0.1.0)
- USGS software release - Socioeconomic effects of bison and elk management alternatives on National Elk Refuge
Superseded Publications:

Decision analysis in support of the National Elk Refuge bison and elk management plan(2025)

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Preface

This report was developed to evaluate the performance of a set of proposed alternatives for Cervus elaphus canadensis (elk) and Bison bison (bison) management at the National Elk Refuge (NER) in Wyoming, U.S.A., and to inform a National Environmental Policy Act Environmental Impact Statement focused on developing the next “Bison and Elk Management Plan” (BEMP). The U.S. Geological Survey facilitated a structured decision-making process for the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to develop the alternatives and the criteria (performance metrics) for evaluating the alternatives. Chapter A provides scoping details of the report, a summary of the 19 metrics that are used to evaluate the performance of each of 6 alternatives, and methodological details of 2 performance metrics that were not covered in other technical chapters. Chapter B analyzes elk population and chronic wasting disease dynamics under the five initial alternatives. Chapter C evaluates elk space-use based on data collected from global positioning system collars on elk and expert elicitation for scenarios with limited data. Chapter D evaluates bison population dynamics, conflict, and harvest patterns under the five initial alternatives. Chapter E assesses social and economic consequences. Chapter F is newly added to this superseding report and details the analysis and results of a new alternative that was developed after discussion among the lead and cooperating agencies working on the BEMP. The full set of six alternatives are anticipated to have varying affects on bison and elk population abundance and private land use, wildlife-related recreation and tourism, and hunters and outfitters in the region. Each chapter was developed under advisement of a technical team, made up science experts from U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, National Park Service, U.S. Forest Service, and Wyoming Game and Fish Department.

Suggested Citation

Cook, J.D., and Cross, P.C., eds., 2025, Decision analysis in support of the National Elk Refuge bison and elk management plan: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2025–5076, 6 chap. (A–F), variously paged, https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20255076. [Supersedes USGS Scientific Investigations Report 2024–5119.]

ISSN: 2328-0328 (online)

Study Area

Additional publication details
Publication type	Report
Publication Subtype	USGS Numbered Series
Title	Decision analysis in support of the National Elk Refuge bison and elk management plan
Series title	Scientific Investigations Report
Series number	2025-5076
DOI	10.3133/sir20255076
Publication Date	August 14, 2025
Year Published	2025
Language	English
Publisher	U.S. Geological Survey
Publisher location	Reston, VA
Contributing office(s)	Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center, Eastern Ecological Science Center
Description	Report: 166 p.; 4 Software Releases
Country	United States
State	Wyoming
Other Geospatial	National Elk Refuge
Online Only (Y/N)	Y
Additional Online Files (Y/N)	N