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Predictions of Elk, Chronic Wasting Disease Dynamics, and Socioeconomics Under Alternative D at the National Elk Refuge in Jackson, Wyoming, and Surrounding Areas

Scientific Investigations Report 2025-5076-F
Ecosystems Mission Area—Biological Threats & Invasive Species Program, and the Environmental Health Program
Prepared in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Agriculture, National Park Service, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and Wyoming Game and Fish Department
By: , , , and 
https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20255076F

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Abstract

This chapter presents a description and quantitative evaluation of a collaborative alternative (alternative D) focused on near-term elk population reduction and chronic wasting disease (CWD) monitoring as part of winter elk and bison feedground operations on the National Elk Refuge adjacent to Jackson, Wyoming. Alternative D was developed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, the lead agency of an Environmental Impact Statement, in consultation with cooperating agencies, including the National Park Service, U.S. Forest Service, and Wyoming Game and Fish Department. In evaluating alternative D, the U.S. Geological Survey considered four distinct scenarios that incorporated whether the agencies were able to meet their elk population reduction goals, and the effects of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service stopping feeding after CWD prevalence was measured at or above 7 percent in the Jackson Elk Herd Unit. The modeled scenarios in which the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service stopped feeding elk at 7 percent CWD prevalence had higher elk population sizes and generally lower CWD prevalence overall at the end of the 20-year simulation period. Further, three of the four alternative D scenarios resulted in fewer elk-use days on sensitive aspen, willow, and cottonwood habitat types compared to continuing to feed; the 7 percent CWD trigger scenario resulted in higher elk-use days on cottonwood and willow habitats compared to continued feeding, but fewer elk-use days on aspen habitats. When considering brucellosis risk, alternative D scenarios without the 7 percent CWD stop feeding trigger had lower risk than the alternative that stopped feeding elk immediately.

Suggested Citation

Cook, J.D., Cotterill, G.G., Cole, E.K., and Cross, P.C., 2025, Predictions of Elk, Chronic Wasting Disease Dynamics, and Socioeconomics Under Alternative D at the National Elk Refuge in Jackson, Wyoming, and Surrounding Areas, chap. F of Cook, J.D., and Cross, P.C., eds., Decision Analysis in Support of the National Elk Refuge Bison and Elk Management Plan: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2025–5076, 9 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20255076F.

ISSN: 2328-0328 (online)

Study Area

Table of Contents

  • Acknowledgments
  • Abstract
  • Introduction
  • Methods
  • Results
  • Discussion
  • Conclusion
  • References Cited
Publication type Report
Publication Subtype USGS Numbered Series
Title Predictions of elk, chronic wasting disease dynamics, and socioeconomics under alternative D at the National Elk Refuge in Jackson, Wyoming, and surrounding areas
Series title Scientific Investigations Report
Series number 2025-5076
Chapter F
DOI 10.3133/sir20255076F
Publication Date August 14, 2025
Year Published 2025
Language English
Publisher U.S. Geological Survey
Publisher location Reston, VA
Contributing office(s) Eastern Ecological Science Center
Description Report: vi, 9 p.; 4 Software Releases
Larger Work Type Report
Larger Work Subtype USGS Numbered Series
Larger Work Title Decision analysis in support of the National Elk Refuge Bison and Elk Management Plan
Country United States
State Wyoming
Other Geospatial National Elk Refuge
Online Only (Y/N) Y
Additional Online Files (Y/N) N
Additional publication details