Uncertainty, variability, and earthquake physics in ground‐motion prediction equations
Annemarie S. Baltay Sundstrom, Thomas C. Hanks, Norm A. Abrahamson
2017, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (107) 1754-1772
Residuals between ground‐motion data and ground‐motion prediction equations (GMPEs) can be decomposed into terms representing earthquake source, path, and site effects. These terms can be cast in terms of repeatable (epistemic) residuals and the random (aleatory) components. Identifying the repeatable residuals leads to a GMPE with reduced uncertainty for a...
How well do route survey areas represent landscapes at larger spatial extents? An analysis of land cover composition along Breeding Bird Survey routes
Joseph A. Veech, Keith L. Pardieck, David Ziolkowski
2017, Condor (119) 607-615
The occurrence of birds in a survey unit is partly determined by the habitat present. Moreover, some bird species preferentially avoid some land cover types and are attracted to others. As such, land cover composition within the 400 m survey areas along a Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) route clearly influences...
Geochemical characterization of groundwater discharging from springs north of the Grand Canyon, Arizona, 2009–2016
Kimberly R. Beisner, Fred D. Tillman, Jessica R. Anderson, Ronald C. Antweiler, Donald J. Bills
2017, Scientific Investigations Report 2017-5068
A geochemical study was conducted on 37 springs discharging from the Toroweap Formation, Coconino Sandstone, Hermit Formation, Supai Group, and Redwall Limestone north of the Grand Canyon near areas of breccia-pipe uranium mining. Baseline concentrations were established for the elements As, B, Li, Se, SiO2, Sr, Tl, U, and V....
Climate change and tree-line ecosystems in the Sierra Nevada: Habitat suitability modelling to inform high-elevation forest dynamics monitoring
Peggy E. Moore, Otto Alvarez, Shawn T. McKinney, Wenkai Li, Matthew L. Brooks, Qinghua Guo
2017, Natural Resource Report NPS/SIEN/NRR—2017/1476
Whitebark pine and foxtail pine serve foundational roles in the subalpine zone of the Sierra Nevada. They provide the dominant structure in tree-line forests and regulate key ecosystem processes and community dynamics. Climate change models suggest that there will be changes in temperature regimes and in the timing and magnitude...
Methodology for time-domain estimation of storm time geoelectric fields using the 3-D magnetotelluric response tensors
Anna Kelbert, Christopher Balch, Antti Pulkkinen, Gary D. Egbert, Jeffrey J. Love, E. Joshua Rigler, Ikuko Fujii
2017, Space Weather (15) 874-894
Geoelectric fields at the Earth's surface caused by magnetic storms constitute a hazard to the operation of electric power grids and related infrastructure. The ability to estimate these geoelectric fields in close to real time and provide local predictions would better equip the industry to mitigate negative impacts on their...
Climate-induced trends in predator–prey synchrony differ across life-history stages of an anadromous salmonid
Donovan A. Bell, Ryan Kovach, Scott C. Vulstek, John E. Joyce, David A. Tallmon
2017, Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences (74) 1431-1438
Differential climate-induced shifts in phenology can create mismatches between predators and prey, but few studies have examined predator–prey mismatch across multiple life-history stages. We used long-term data from a warming stream with shifting salmonid migration timings to quantify intra-annual migration synchrony between predatory Dolly Varden (Salvelinus malma) and Pacific salmon...
Systems approaches for coastal hazard assessment and resilience
Scott C. Hagen, Davina Passeri, Matthew V. Bilskie, Denise E. DeLorme, David Yoskowitz
2017, Book chapter, Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Natural Hazard Science
The framework presented herein supports a changing paradigm in the approaches used by coastal researchers, engineers, and social scientists to model the impacts of climate change and sea level rise (SLR) in particular along low-gradient coastal landscapes. Use of a System of Systems (SoS) approach to the coastal dynamics of...
Distribution and migration chronology of Eastern population sandhill cranes
David L. Fronczak, David E. Andersen, Everett E. Hanna, Thomas R. Cooper
2017, Journal of Wildlife Management (81) 1021-1032
The Eastern Population (EP) of greater sandhill cranes (Antigone canadensis tabida; cranes) is expanding in size and geographic range. Little information exists regarding the geographic extent of breeding, migration, and wintering ranges, migration chronology, or use of staging areas for cranes in the EP. To obtain these data, we attached...
Compilation of geospatial data for the mineral industries and related infrastructure of Latin America and the Caribbean
Michael S. Baker, Spencer D. Buteyn, Philip A. Freeman, Michael H. Trippi, Loyd M. Trimmer III
2017, Open-File Report 2017-1079
This report describes the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) ongoing commitment to its mission of understanding the nature and distribution of global mineral commodity supply chains by updating and publishing the georeferenced locations of mineral commodity production and processing facilities, mineral exploration and development sites, and mineral commodity exporting ports in...
Simulated groundwater flow paths, travel time, and advective transport of nitrogen in the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system, Barnegat Bay–Little Egg Harbor Watershed, New Jersey
Lois M. Voronin, Stephen J. Cauller
2017, Scientific Investigations Report 2016-5169
Elevated concentrations of nitrogen in groundwater that discharges to surface-water bodies can degrade surface-water quality and habitats in the New Jersey Coastal Plain. An analysis of groundwater flow in the Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system and deeper confined aquifers that underlie the Barnegat Bay–Little Egg Harbor (BB-LEH) watershed and estuary was conducted...
Model selection for the North American Breeding Bird Survey: A comparison of methods
William A. Link, John R. Sauer, Daniel Niven
2017, Condor (119) 546-556
The North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) provides data for >420 bird species at multiple geographic scales over 5 decades. Modern computational methods have facilitated the fitting of complex hierarchical models to these data. It is easy to propose and fit new models, but little attention has been given to...
CO2 time series patterns in contrasting headwater streams of North America
John T. Crawford, Emily H. Stanley, Mark M. Dornblaser, Robert G. Striegl
2017, Aquatic Sciences (79) 473-486
We explored the underlying patterns of temporal stream CO2 partial pressure (pCO2) variability using highfrequency sensors in seven disparate headwater streams distributed across the northern hemisphere. We also compared this dataset of [40,000 pCO2 records with other published records from lotic systems. Individual stream sites exhibited relatively distinct pCO2 patterns...
Drilling, construction, geophysical log data, and lithologic log for boreholes USGS 142 and USGS 142A, Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho
Brian V. Twining, Mary K.V. Hodges, Kyle Schusler, Christopher Mudge
2017, Data Series 1058
Starting in 2014, the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Energy, drilled and constructed boreholes USGS 142 and USGS 142A for stratigraphic framework analyses and long-term groundwater monitoring of the eastern Snake River Plain aquifer at the Idaho National Laboratory in southeast Idaho. Borehole USGS...
Use of North American Breeding Bird Survey data in avian conservation assessments
Kenneth V. Rosenberg, Peter J. Blancher, Jessica C. Stanton, Arvind O. Panjabi
2017, The Condor (119) 594-606
Conservation resources are limited, and prioritizing species based on their relative vulnerability and risk of extinction is a fundamental component of conservation planning. In North America, the conservation consortium Partners in Flight (PIF) has developed and implemented a data-driven species assessment process, at global and regional scales, based on quantitative...
Greenup and evapotranspiration following the Minute 319 pulse flow to Mexico: An analysis using Landsat 8 Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data
Christopher J. Jarchow, Pamela L. Nagler, Edward P. Glenn
2017, Ecological Engineering (106) 776-783
In the southwestern U.S., many riparian ecosystems have been altered by dams, water diversions, and other anthropogenic activities. This is particularly true of the Colorado River, where numerous dams and agricultural diversions have affected this water course, especially south of the U.S.–Mexico border. In the spring of 2014, 130 million...
Integrating Breeding Bird Survey and demographic data to estimate Wood Duck population size in the Atlantic Flyway
Guthrie S. Zimmerman, John R. Sauer, G. Scott Boomer, Patrick K. Devers, Pamela R. Garrettson
2017, The Condor (119) 616-628
The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) uses data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) to assist in monitoring and management of some migratory birds. However, BBS analyses provide indices of population change rather than estimates of population size, precluding their use in developing abundance-based objectives and limiting...
Historical and projected trends in landscape drivers affecting carbon dynamics in Alaska
Neal J. Pastick, Paul A. Duffy, Hélène Genet, T. Scott Rupp, Bruce K. Wylie, Kristofer Johnson, M. Torre Jorgenson, Norman B. Bliss, Anthony D. McGuire, Elchin Jafarov, Joseph F. Knight
2017, Ecological Applications (27) 1383-1402
Modern climate change in Alaska has resulted in widespread thawing of permafrost, increased fire activity, and extensive changes in vegetation characteristics that have significant consequences for socioecological systems. Despite observations of the heightened sensitivity of these systems to change, there has not been a comprehensive assessment of factors that drive...
High-resolution seismic profiling reveals faulting associated with the 1934 Ms 6.6 Hansel Valley earthquake (Utah, USA)
Pier Paolo G. Bruno, Christopher DuRoss, Sotirios Kokkalas
2017, GSA Bulletin (129) 1227-1240
The 1934 Ms 6.6 Hansel Valley, Utah, earthquake produced an 8-km-long by 3-km-wide zone of north-south−trending surface deformation in an extensional basin within the easternmost Basin and Range Province. Less than 0.5 m of purely vertical displacement was measured at the surface, although seismologic data suggest mostly strike-slip faulting at...
Competition amplifies drought stress in forests across broad climatic and compositional gradients
Kelly Gleason, John B. Bradford, Alessandra Bottero, Tony D’Amato, Shawn Fraver, Brian J. Palik, Michael Battaglia, Louis R. Iverson, Laura Kenefic, Christel C. Kern
2017, Ecosphere (8) 1-16
Forests around the world are experiencing increasingly severe droughts and elevated competitive intensity due to increased tree density. However, the influence of interactions between drought and competition on forest growth remains poorly understood. Using a unique dataset of stand-scale dendrochronology sampled from 6405 trees, we quantified how annual growth of...
Noble gas data from Goldfield and Tonopah epithermal Au-Ag deposits, ancestral Cascades Arc, USA: Evidence for a primitive mantle volatile source
Andrew H. Manning, Albert H. Hofstra
2017, Ore Geology Reviews (89) 683-700
The He, Ne, and Ar isotopic composition of fluid inclusions in ore and gangue minerals were analyzed to determine the source of volatiles in the high-grade Goldfield and Tonopah epithermal Au-Ag deposits in southwestern Nevada, USA. Ar and Ne are mainly atmospheric, whereas He has only a minor atmospheric component....
Detect and exploit hidden structure in fatty acid signature data
Jeffrey F. Bromaghin, Suzanne M. Budge, Gregory W. Thiemann
2017, Ecosphere (8)
Estimates of predator diet composition are essential to our understanding of their ecology. Although several methods of estimating diet are practiced, methods based on biomarkers have become increasingly common. Quantitative fatty acid signature analysis (QFASA) is a popular method that continues to be refined and extended. Quantitative fatty acid signature...
Dating of river terraces along Lefthand Creek, western High Plains, Colorado, reveals punctuated incision
Melissa A. Foster, Robert S. Anderson, Harrison J. Gray, Shannon A. Mahan
2017, Geomorphology (295) 176-190
The response of erosional landscapes to Quaternary climate oscillations is recorded in fluvial terraces whose quantitative interpretation requires numerical ages. We investigate gravel-capped strath terraces along the western edge of Colorado's High Plains to constrain the incision history of this shale-dominated landscape. We use ¹⁰Be and ²⁶Al cosmogenic radionuclides (CRNs),...
A synthesis of thresholds for focal species along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coasts: A review of research and applications
Emily J. Powell, Megan C. Tyrrell, Andrew Milliken, John M. Tirpak, Michelle D. Staudinger
2017, Ocean and Coastal Management (148) 75-88
The impacts from climate change are increasing the possibility of vulnerable coastal species and habitats crossing critical thresholds that could spur rapid and possibly irreversible changes. For species of high conservation concern, improved knowledge of quantitative thresholds could greatly improve management. To meet this need, we synthesized information pertaining to...
Knowing requires data
Ramon C. Naranjo
2017, Groundwater (55) 674-677
Groundwater-flow models are often calibrated using a limited number of observations relative to the unknown inputs required for the model. This is especially true for models that simulate groundwater surface-water interactions. In this case, subsurface temperature sensors can be an efficient means for collecting long-term data that capture the...
Volcano geodesy in the Cascade arc, USA
Michael P. Poland, Michael Lisowski, Daniel Dzurisin, Rebecca Kramer, Megan McLay, Benjamin Pauk
2017, Bulletin of Volcanology (79) 1-33
Experience during historical time throughout the Cascade arc and the lack of deep-seated deformation prior to the two most recent eruptions of Mount St. Helens might lead one to infer that Cascade volcanoes are generally quiescent and, specifically, show no signs of geodetic change until they are about to erupt....
