ShakeAlert® version 3: Expected performance in large earthquakes
Jeffrey J. McGuire, Carl W. Ulberg, Angela I. Lux, Maren Böse, J.R. Andrews, Deborah E. Smith, B. Crowell, Jessica R. Murray, I. Henson, R. Hartog, C. Felizardo, Minh Huynh, Mario Aranha, Grace Alexandra Parker, Annemarie S. Baltay Sundstrom, Mark Hunter Murray, Glenn Biasi, Stephen Guiwits, J.K. Saunders, Andrew D. Good, V. Marcelo Santillan, C.W. Scrivener, Walter M. Szeliga, Timothy I. Melbourne, Victor Kress, Robert Michael deGroot, Sara K. McBride, Douglas D. Given, Richard M. Allen, Thomas H. Heaton, Allen L. Husker, Valerie I. Thomas, Harold Tobin, Sumant Jha, Julian J Bunn
2025, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (115) 533-561
The ShakeAlert earthquake early warning (EEW) system partners along with U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) licensed operators deliver EEW alerts to the public and trigger automated systems when a significant earthquake is expected to impact California, Oregon, or Washington. ShakeAlert’s primary goal is to provide usable warning times before the arrival...
Recovering the American horseshoe crab through a commitment to collaboration
David R. Smith, Mark Botton, Paul Shin
2025, Fisheries
American horseshoe crab Limulus polyphemus populations are recovering because of cooperation among diverse stakeholders and data-driven collective action. Limulus polyphemus is one of four extant species facing common threats, and conservation successes and limitations hold lessons applicable to all the species. We review the advancement in management and monitoring over recent decades, discuss the...
Combining past and contemporary species occurrences with ordinal species distribution modeling to investigate responses to climate change
Erik A. Beever, Marie L. Westover, Adam D. Smith, Francis D. Gerraty, Peter D. Billman, Felisa A. Smith
2025, Ecography (2025)
Many organisms leave evidence of their former occurrence, such as scat, abandoned burrows, middens, ancient eDNA or fossils, which indicate areas from which a species has since disappeared. However, combining this evidence with contemporary occurrences within a single modeling framework remains challenging. Traditional binary species-distribution modeling reduces occurrence to two...
Estimating recruitment rate and population dynamics at a migratory stopover site using an integrated population model
Anna Maureen Tucker, Conor P. McGowan, Bryan L. Nuse, James E. Lyons, Clinton Moore, David R. Smith, John A. Sweka, Kristen A. Anstead, Audrey DeRose-Wilson, Nigel A. Clark
2025, Ecosphere (14)
Consideration of the full annual cycle population dynamics can provide useful insight for conservation efforts, but collecting data needed to estimate demographic parameters is often logistically difficult. For species that breed in remote areas, monitoring is often conducted during migratory stopover or at nonbreeding sites, and the recruitment rate of...
Evaluation of a carbon dioxide fish barrier through numerical modelling
Marcela Politano, Aaron R. Cupp, David R. Smith, Avery Schemmel, P. Ryan Jackson, Jeff Zuercher
2024, Meccanica
The Chicago Area Waterway System (CAWS) is a potential route for the migration of aquatic invasive species from the Mississippi River Basin into the Great Lakes. Electric dispersal barriers were installed in the Chicago Sanitary Ship Canal, within CAWS, to prevent invasive fish from reaching the Great Lakes. Despite the...
Predictive understanding of stream salinization in a developed watershed using machine learning
Jared David Smith, Lauren Elizabeth Koenig, Margaux Jeanne Sleckman, Alison Paige Appling, Jeffrey Michael Sadler, Vincent T. DePaul, Zoltan Szabo
2024, Environmental Science and Technology (58) 18833
Stream salinization is a global issue, yet few models can provide reliable salinity estimates for unmonitored locations at the time scales required for ecological exposure assessments. Machine learning approaches are presented that use spatially limited high-frequency monitoring and spatially distributed discrete samples to estimate the daily...
Temporal analysis of water chemistry and smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) health at two sites with divergent land use in the Susquehanna River watershed, Pennsylvania, USA
Heather L. Walsh, Geoffrey D. Smith, Megan K. Schall, Stephanie Gordon, Vicki S. Blazer
2024, Environmental Monitoring and Assessment (196)
Monitoring wild fish health and exposure effects in impacted rivers and streams with differing land use has become a valuable research tool. Smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) are a sensitive, indicator species that exhibit signs of immunosuppression and endocrine disruption in response to water quality changes and contaminant exposure. To determine...
Feeding habits and ecological implications of the invasive Flathead Catfish in the Susquehanna River basin, Pennsylvania
Sydney Stark, Megan K. Schall, Geoffrey D. Smith, Aaron Maloy, Jason A. Coombs, Tyler Wagner, Julian Avery
2024, Transactions of the American Fisheries Society (153) 591-610
ObjectiveFlathead Catfish Pylodictis olivaris are a widespread aquatic invasive species within the United States and a recent invader in the Susquehanna River basin, Pennsylvania. Flathead Catfish are piscivores known to consume native and recreationally important fish species. In the mid-Atlantic United States, it is unknown how this invader is...
Status and performance of the ShakeAlert® earthquake early warning system: 2019-2023
A.I. Lux, Deborah E. Smith, M. Böse, Jeffrey J. McGuire, J.K. Saunders, Minh Huynh, I. Stubailo, Jennifer R Andrews, G. Lotto, B. Crowell, S. Crane, R. W. Allen, Douglas D. Given, R. Hartog, T. H. Heaton, A. Husker, J. Marty, Leland O'Driscoll, H. Tobin, Sara K. McBride, D. Toomey
2024, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (114) 3041-3062
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)‐operated ShakeAlert® system is the United States West Coast earthquake early warning system (Given et al., 2018). In this study we detail ShakeAlert’s performance during some of the largest events seen by the system thus far. Statewide public alerting using ShakeAlert messages was authorized...
Population genetic structure and demographic history reconstruction of introduced flathead catfish (Pylodictis olivaris) in two US Mid-Atlantic rivers
Justin M. Waraniak, Michael S. Eackles, Jason Keagy, Geoffrey D. Smith, Megan K. Schall, Sydney Stark, Shannon L. White, David C. Kazyak, Tyler Wagner
2024, Journal of Fish Biology
Population genetic analysis of invasive populations can provide valuable insights into the source of introductions, pathways for expansion, and their demographic histories. Flathead catfish (Pylodictis olivaris) are a prolific invasive species with high fecundity, long-distance dispersal, and piscivorous feeding habits that can lead to declines in native fish populations. In...
Post-fire sediment yield from a central California watershed: Field measurements and validation of the WEPP model
Amy East, Joshua B. Logan, Helen Willemien Dow, Douglas G. Smith, Pat J. Iampietro, Jonathan Warrick, Thomas Lorenson, Leticia Hallas, Benjamin Kozlowicz
2024, Earth and Space Science (11)
In a warming climate, an intensifying fire regime and higher likelihood of extreme rain are expected to increase watershed sediment yield in many regions. Understanding regional variability in landscape response to fire and post-fire rainfall is essential for managing water resources and infrastructure. We measured sediment yield...
An experimental study of benthic habitat selection in yellow-phase American eels (Anguilla rostrata)
Melissa Braham, Stuart A. Welsh, Dustin M. Smith
2024, Environmental Biology of Fishes (107) 513-522
In a laboratory experiment, we quantified microhabitat use of small yellow-phase American eels (Anguilla rostrata, n = 130, 224–338 mm TL) conditional on five benthic substrate types common to rivers within their geographic range. During nine, 4-day trials replicated with three aquaria, American eels were given a choice to burrow into five equally...
Quantifying the relative importance of biotic and abiotic factors in landscape-based models of stream fish distributions
Christopher A. Custer, Douglas T. Fischer, Geoffrey D. Smith, Aaron Henning, Megan Kepler Schall, Matthew K. Shank, Timothy A. Wertz, Daniel A. Isermann
2024, Community Ecology (25) 145-196
Lotic fish species distributions are frequently predicted using remotely sensed habitat variables that characterize the adjacent landscape and serve as proxies for instream habitat. Recent advancements in statistical methodology, however, allow for leveraging fish assemblage data when predicting distributions. This is important because assemblage composition likely provides better information about...
Deep resistivity geophysics of the San Juan–Silverton caldera complex, San Juan County, Colorado (USA)
Brian D. Rodriguez, Douglas B. Yager, Eric D. Anderson, Robert L. Runkel, Bennett Eugene Hoogenboom, Bruce D. Smith, Maria Deszcz-Pan
2024, Geosphere (20) 910-934
Magnetotelluric (MT) and audiomagnetotelluric (AMT) data are used to better understand the subsurface geology and mineral resources in the San Juan–Silverton caldera complex located near Silverton, Colorado, western United States, as part of the extensive southern Rocky Mountains volcanic field that covers much...
Deep learning of estuary salinity dynamics is physically accurate at a fraction of hydrodynamic model computational cost
Galen Gorski, Salme Ellen Cook, Amelia Marie Snyder, Alison Paige Appling, Theodore Paul Thompson, Jared David Smith, John C. Warner, Simon Nemer Topp
2024, Limnology and Oceanography (69) 1070-1085
Salinity dynamics in the Delaware Bay estuary are a critical water quality concern as elevated salinity can damage infrastructure and threaten drinking water supplies. Current state-of-the-art modeling approaches use hydrodynamic models, which can produce accurate results but are limited by significant computational costs. We...
New diagnostic assessment of MCMC algorithm effectiveness, efficiency, reliability, and controllability
Hossein KavianiHamedani, Julianne D. Quinn, Jared David Smith
2024, IEEE Access (12) 42385-42400
Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a robust statistical approach for estimating posterior distributions. However, the significant computational cost associated with MCMC presents a considerable challenge, complicating the selection of an appropriate algorithm tailored to the specific problem at hand. This study introduces a novel and comprehensive framework for...
Aligning renewable energy expansion with climate-driven range shifts
Uzma Ashraf, Toni Lyn Morelli, Adam D. Smith, Rebecca R. Hernandez
2024, Nature Climate Change (14) 242-246
Fossil fuel dependence can be reduced, in part, by renewable energy expansion. Increasingly, renewable energy siting seeks to avoid significant impacts on...
Extreme drought impacts have been underestimated in grasslands and shrublands globally
Melinda D. Smith, Kate Wilkins, Martin C. Holdrege, Peter A. Wilfahrt, Scott M. Collins, Alan K. Knapp, Osvaldo E. Sala, Jeffrey S. Dukes, Richard A. Phillips, Laura Yahdjian, Laureano A. Gherardi, Timothy Ohlert, Claus Beier, Lauchlan H. Fraser, Anke Jentsch, Michael E. Loik, Fernando T. Maestre, Sally A. Power, Qiang Yu, Andrew J. Felton, Seth Munson, Yiqi Luo, Hamed Abdoli, Mehdi Abedi, Concepcion L. Alados, Juan Alberti, Moshe Alon, Hui An, Brian Anacker, Maggie Anderson, Harald Auge, Seton Bachle, Khadijeh Bahalkeh, Michael Bahn, Amgaa Batbaatar, Taryn Bauerle, Karen H. Beard, Kai Behn, Ilka Beil, Lucio Biancari, Irmgard Blindow, Viviana Florencia Bondaruk, Elizabeth T. Borer, Edward W. Bork, Carlos Martin Bruschetti, Kerry M. Byrne, James M. Cahill, Dianela A. Calvo, Michele Carbognani, Augusto Cardoni, Cameron N. Carlyle, Miguel Castillo-Garcia, Scott X. Chang, Jeff Chieppa, Marcus V. Cianciaruso, Ofer Cohen, Amanda L. Cordeiro, Daniela F. Cusack, Sven Dahlke, Pedro Daleo, Carla M. D'Antonio, Lee H. Dietterich, Tim S. Doherty, Maren Dubbert, Anne Ebling, Nico Eisenhauer, Felícia M. Fischer, T'ai G. W. Forte, Tobias Gebauer, Beatriz Gozalo, Aaron C. Greenville, Karlo G. Guidoni-Martins, Heather J. Hannusch, Siri Vatsø Haugum, Yann Hautier, Mariet Hefting, Hugh A. L. Henry, Daniela Hoss, Johannes Ingrisch, Oscar Iribarne, Forest Isbell, Yari Johnson, Samuel E. Jordan, Eugene F. Kelly, Kaitlin Kimmel, Juergen Kreyling, György Kröel-Dulay, Alicia Kröpfl, Angelika Kübert, Andrew Kulmatiski, Eric G. Lamb, Klaus Steenberg Larsen, Julie E. Larson, Jason Lawson, Cintia V. Leder, Anja Linstädter, Jielin Liu, Shirong Liu, Alexandra G. Lodge, Grisel Longo, Alejandro Loydi, Junwei Luan, Frederick Curtis Lubbe, Craig Macfarlane, Kathleen Mackie-Haas, Andrey V. Malyshev, Adrián Maturano-Ruiz, Thomas Merchant, Daniel J. Metcalfe, Akira S. Mori, Edwin Mudongo, Gregory S. Newman, Uffe N. Nielsen, Dale Nimmo, Yujie Niu, Paola Nobre, Rory O'Connor, Romà Ogaya, Gaston R. Oñatibia, Ildikó Orbán, Brooke Bossert Osborne, Rafael Otfinowski, Meelis Partel, Josep Peñuelas, Pablo Luis Peri, Guadalupe Peter, Alessandro Petraglia, Catherine Picon-Cochard, Valério D. Pillar, Juan Manuel Piñeiro-Guerra, Laura W. Ploughe, Robert M. Plowes, Cristy Portales-Reyes, Suzanne M. Prober, Yolanda Pueyo, Sasha Reed, Euan G. Ritchie, Dana Aylén Rodríguez, William P. Rogers, Christiane Roscher, Ana V. Sanchez, Bráulio Santos, María Cecilia Scarfó, Eric W. Seabloom, Baoku Shu, Lara Souza, Andreas Stampfli, Rachel J. Standish, Marcelo Sternberg, Wei Sun, Marie Sünnemann, Michelle Tedder, Pål Thorvaldsen, Dashuan Tian, Katja Tielbörger, Alejandro Valdecantos, Liesbeth van den Brink, Vigdis Vandvik, Mathew R. Vankoughnett, Liv Guri Velle, Changhui Wang, Yi Wang, Glenda M Wardle, Christiane Werner, Cunzheng Wei, Georg Wiehl, Jennifer M. Williams, Amelia A. Wolf, Michaela Zeiter, Fawei Zhang, Juntao Zhu, Ning Zong, Xiaoan Zuo
2024, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (121)
Drought has well-documented societal and economic consequences. Climate change is expected to intensify drought to even more extreme levels, but because such droughts have been historically rare, their impact on ecosystem functioning is not well known. We experimentally imposed the most frequent type of intensified drought—one that is ~1 y...
The haunting raptor: Yellowstone’s golden eagles
David Vincent Haines, Douglas G. Smith, Todd Eli Katzner, Victoria J. Dreitz
2023, Book chapter, Yellowstone's Birds- Diversity and Abundance in the World's First National Park
For many who live in North America, when picturing an eagle, the image of a large magnificent bird with a distinct white head and tail comes to mind. Rightfully, the bald eagle has garnered much attention as a national symbol of the United States (US), nearly brought to extinction from...
On the relationship between aquatic CO2 concentration and ecosystem fluxes in some of the world’s key wetland types
Jessica L. Richardson, Ankur R. Desai, Jonathon Thom, Kim Lindgren, Hjalmar Laudon, Matthias Peichl, Mats B. Nilsson, Audrey Campeau, Jarvi Jarveoja, Peter Hawman, Deepak R. Mishra, Dontrece Smith, Brenda D'Acunha, Sara H. Knox, Darian Ng, Mark A. Johnson, Joshua M. Blackstock, Sparkle L. Malone, Steve F. Oberbauer, Matteo Detto, Kimberly Wickland, Inke Forbrich, Nathaniel B Weston, Jacqueline K.Y. Hung, Colin W. Edgar, Eugenie S. Euskirchen, Marion S. Bret-Harte, Jason Dobkowski, George Kling, Evan S. Kane, Pascal Badiou, Matthew J. Bogard, Gil Bohrer, Thomas L. O'Halloran, Jonny Ritson, Ariane Arias-Otriz, Dennis Baldocchi, Patty Oikawa, Julie Shahan, Maiyah Matsumura
2023, Wetlands (44)
To understand patterns in CO2 partial pressure (PCO2) over time in wetlands’ surface water and porewater, we examined the relationship between PCO2 and land–atmosphere flux of CO2 at the ecosystem scale at 22 Northern Hemisphere wetland sites synthesized through an open call. Sites spanned 6 major wetland types (tidal,...
A proposed methodology for conducting threats assessments within the Great Lakes Coregonines restoration framework
Andrew Edgar Honsey, David R. Smith, Charles R. Bronte, Andy Cook, D. Andrew R. Drake, Dimitry Gorsky, Timothy C. Johnson, Nicholas E. Mandrak, James Roberts, Shawn P. Sitar
2023, Report
This document serves to fulfill the Coregonine Threats Assessment Science Team’s charge of providing a written recommendation for a methodology to conduct threats assessments for Great Lakes coregonines within the Coregonine Restoration Framework (CRF). Through a series of team meetings that included presentations by experts on five candidate threats assessment...
Plant size, latitude, and phylogeny explain within-population variability in herbivory
The Herbivory Variability Network, Moria Robinson, Karen C Abbott, Warwick J. Allen, Janete Andrade, Diego Angulo, Diego Anjos, Daniel Anstett, Robert Bagchi, Sumanta Bagchi, Milton Barbosa, Sarah Barrett, Carina Baskett, Eyal Ben-Simchon, Kathryn Bloodworth, Judith L. Bronstein, Emilio Bruna, Yvonne Buckley, Karin Burghardt, Carlos Bustos-Segura, N. Ivalú Cacho, Eduardo Soares Calixto, Raquel Carvalho, Bastien Castagneyrol, Mariana Chiuffo, Damla Cinoglu, Elizeth Cinto Mejia, Marina Cock, Rodrigo Cogni, Olivia Cope, Tatiana Cornelissen, Dezirea Cortez, David Crowder, Caroline Dallstream, Wesley Dáttilo, Julien Davis, Romina Dimarco, Haley Dole, Lee Dyer, Ikponmwosa Egbon, Afure Ejomah, Bret D Elderd, María-José Endara, Marshall Eubanks, Susan Everingham, Keiko Farah, Rafael de Paiva Farias, Geraldo Fernandes, Marco Ferrante, Alain Finn, Grace Florjancic, Matthew L. Forister, Quinn Fox, Enric Frago, Filipe M. França, Abigail Getman-Pickering, Zoe Getman-Pickering, Ben Gooden, Martin M. Gossner, Keri Greig, Sofia Gripenberg, Ronny Groenteman, Patrick Grof-Tisza, Nora Haack, Lisa Hahn, Philip Hahn, Shahan Haq, Justus Hennecke, Sara Hermann, Liza M. Holeski, Matthew Hutchinson, Brian D. Inouye, Eleanor Jackson, Shinnosuke Kagiya, Michael Kalwajtys, Richard Karban, Rupesh Kariyat, Tamar Keasar, Monica Kersch-Becker, Heather Kharouba, Tania Kim, Duncan Kimuyu, Jennifer Kluse, Sally E. Koerner, Kimberly J Komatsu, Swaminathan Krishnan, Miika Laihonen, Lucas Lamelas-López, Michael LaScaleia, Nicolas Lecomte, Carlos Lehn, Xiaofei Li, Richard L Lindroth, Eric LoPresti, María Losada, Allison M Louthan, Victoria Luizzi, Joshua Lynn, Nicholas Lyon, Laís Maia, Renata Maia, Tosca Mannall, Bruce Martin, Tara Massad, Andrew McCall, Kelsey McGurrin, Andrew Merwin, Zarluis Mijango-Ramos, Charlotte Mills, Angela Moles, Christopher Moore, Colin Morrison, Moleseng Moshobane, Anne Muola, Ryosuke Nakadai, Kazuhide Nakajima, Samuel Novais, Charlee Ogbebor, Haruna Ohsaki, Vincent Pan, Nicholas Pardikes, Narayanaswamy Parthasarathy, Rohit Pawar, Quentin Paynter, Ian Pearse, Rachel Penczykowski, Adam Pepi, Cássio Pereira, Shyam Phartyal, Frida I. Piper, Katja Poveda, Elizabeth Pringle, Javier Puy, Teresa Quijano, Carolina Quintero, Sergio Rasmann, Christoph Rosche, Leah Rosenheim, Justin B. Runyon, Asaf Sadeh, Yuzu Sakata, Danielle Salcido, Cristian Salgado-Luarte, Bráulio Santos, Yuval Sapir, Yamila Sasal, Yasuhiro Sato, Manasi Sawant, Hayley Schroeder, Isabell Schumann, Michal Segoli, Hila Segre, Oren Shelef, Naoto Shinohara, Rachit Pratap Singh, David R. Smith, Mar Sobral, Gisela Stotz, Ayco Tack, Mandeep Tayal, John Tooker, Daniel Torrico-Bazoberry, Kévin Tougeron, Nora Underwood, Santiago A. Utsumi, Osariyekemwen Uyi, Jessica Vaca-Uribe, Anu Valtonen, Laura van Dijk, Vigdis Vandvik, Jesus Villellas, Lauren Waller, Marjorie G. Weber, William C. Wetzel, Susan Whitehead, Akira Yamawo, Samantha Yim, Luke Zehr, Zhiwei Zhong
2023, Science (382) 679-683
Interactions between plants and herbivores are central in most ecosystems, but their strength is highly variable. The amount of variability within a system is thought to influence most aspects of plant-herbivore biology, from ecological stability to plant defense evolution. Our understanding of what influences variability, however, is limited by sparse...
Application of a catch multiple survey analysis for Atlantic horseshoe crab Limulus polyphemus in the Delaware Bay
Kristen A. Anstead, John A. Sweka, Linda Barry, Eric M. Hallerman, David R. Smith, Natalie Ameral, Michael Schmidtke, Richard A. Wong
2023, Marine and Coastal Fisheries: Dynamics, Management, and Ecosystem Science (15)
ObjectiveThis paper applies a catch multiple survey analysis (CMSA) to Atlantic horseshoe crabs Limulus polyphemus in the Delaware Bay to generate robust population estimates for harvest management. Currently, horseshoe crabs along the U.S. Atlantic coast are harvested as bait for other fisheries and collected for their blood, which is...
Geographic and taxonomic variation in adaptive capacity among mountain-dwelling small mammals: implications for conservation status and actions
Erik A. Beever, Jennifer L. Wilkening, Peter D. Billman, Lindsey Thurman, Kristina A. Ernest, David L. Wright, Alisha M. Gill, April C. Craighead, Nolan A. Helmstetter, Leona K. Svancara, Meghan J. Camp, Sabuj Bhattacharyya, Jedediah Fitzgerald, Jocelyn M. R. Hirose, Marie L. Westover, Francis D. Gerraty, Kelly B. Klingler, Danielle A. Schmidt, Dylan K. Ryals, Richard N. Brown, Steven M. Clark, Neil Clayton, Gail H. Collins, Kyle A. Cutting, Daniel F. Doak, Clinton W. Epps, Janet E. Foley, Johnnie French, Charles Willard Hayes, Zachary A. Mills, Lucas Moyer-Horner, Lyle B. Nichols, Kate B. Orlofsky, Mary M. Peacock, Nicholas C. Penzel, Johnny Peterson, Nathan G. Ramsay, Tom Rickman, Megan M. Robinson, Hillary L. Robison, Karen M. C. Rowe, Kevin C. Rowe, Michael A. Russello, Adam D. Smith, Joseph William Stewart, Will W. Thompson, James H. Thorne, Matthew D. Waterhouse, Shana S. Weber, Kenneth V. Wilson
2023, Biological Conservation (282)
Contemporary climate change is modifying the distribution, morphology, phenology, physiology, evolution, and interspecific interactions of species. Effects of climate change are mediated not only through the magnitude of change experienced (exposure) and an animal's sensitivity to such changes, but also through the ability of the...
Application of the technology readiness levels framework to natural resource management tools
Aaron R. Cupp, Andrea K. Fritts, Marybeth K. Brey, Christa M. Woodley, David R. Smith, Mark Cornish, Amy McGovern, Rob Simmonds, Neal Jackson
2023, Fisheries (48) 474-479
Technology advancements in fisheries science can provide useful tools to support natural resource management and conservation. However, new technologies may also present challenges for decision makers due to the lack of a standardized process to assess technologies for consideration within management plans. Future technology development in fishery and water resources...
