Discussion

Figure 11. Relative Coastal Vulnerability for War in the Pacific NHP. Click on figure for larger image.

The data within the coastal vulnerability index (CVI) show variability at different spatial scales (Figure 11). However, the ranked values for the physical process variables vary less over the extent of the shoreline. The value of the relative sea-level rise variable is constant at very low vulnerability for the entire study area. The significant wave height vulnerability is low to moderate. The tidal range is very high vulnerability (< 1.0 m) for all of the War in the Pacific NHP shoreline.

Figure 5. Coastal geomorphology for War in the Pacific NHP. Click on figure for larger image.

The geologic variables show the most spatial variability and thus have the most influence on CVI variability (Figure 11). Geomorphology in the park includes very high vulnerability sandy beach shoreline with fringing reef, and high vulnerability rubble to rocky shoreline with fringing reef (Figure 5). Vulnerability assessment based on shoreline change rate is constant at moderate vulnerability. Regional coastal slope is classified as very low to very high vulnerability (Figure 7).

Figure 7. Regional coastal slope for War in the Pacific NHP. Click on figure for larger image.

The most influential variables in the CVI are geomorphology, regional coastal slope, and wave energy; therefore they may be considered the dominant factors controlling how Guam will evolve as sea level rises.

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