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A Model Uncertainty Quantification Protocol for Evaluating the Value of Observation Data

Scientific Investigations Report 2025-5007
By: , , and 
https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20255007

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Abstract

The history-matching approach to parameter estimation with models enables a powerful offshoot analysis of data worth—using the uncertainty of a model forecast as a metric for the worth of data. Adding observation data will either have no impact on forecast uncertainty or will reduce it. Removing existing data will either have no impact on forecast uncertainty or will increase it. The history-matching framework makes it possible to perform this quantitative analysis leveraging the connections among observations, model parameters, and model forecasts. We show this behavior on a specific groundwater flow model of the Mississippi Alluvial Plain and show where the analysis can be informative for considering the potential design of an observation network based on existing or potential observations.

Suggested Citation

Fienen, M.N., Schachter, L.A., and Hunt, R.J., 2025, A model uncertainty quantification protocol for evaluating the value of observation data: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2025–5007, 12 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20255007.

ISSN: 2328-0328 (online)

Table of Contents

  • Acknowledgments
  • Abstract
  • Introduction
  • Purpose and Scope
  • A Note on Software Packages Used
  • Background Mathematics
  • Linear Uncertainty Methods—Three Main Approaches
  • Results of Analysis in the Mississippi Alluvial Plain Using Linear Uncertainty Methods
  • Limitations and Lessons Learned
  • References Cited
Publication type Report
Publication Subtype USGS Numbered Series
Title A model uncertainty quantification protocol for evaluating the value of observation data
Series title Scientific Investigations Report
Series number 2025-5007
DOI 10.3133/sir20255007
Publication Date March 17, 2025
Year Published 2025
Language English
Publisher U.S. Geological Survey
Publisher location Reston, VA
Contributing office(s) Upper Midwest Water Science Center
Description vi; 12 p.
Online Only (Y/N) Y
Additional Online Files (Y/N) N
Additional publication details