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World Minerals Outlook—Cobalt, Gallium, Helium, Lithium, Magnesium, Palladium, Platinum, and Titanium Through 2029

Scientific Investigations Report 2025-5021
By: , , , , , , and 
https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20255021

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Plain Language Summary

Understanding mine production and potential capacity growth can help inform the growing need for the minerals that support economic growth, technological change, and national security for businesses and policy makers. How much a mine can produce affects future supply, especially as capacities can change over time. This report estimates production capacities for cobalt, gallium, helium, lithium, magnesium, palladium, platinum, and titanium through 2029. The results of the analysis suggest that cobalt and lithium, which are key for lithium-ion batteries, are likely to see significant increases in production capacity owing to rising demand, whereas gallium and platinum are expected to see stable or moderate growth, exceeding current production levels. However, the future for magnesium and titanium is less clear because much of their production comes from countries with nonmarket economies, like China and Russia. In free markets, using full production capacity is likely to depend on supply shortages and prices being above production costs.

Abstract

Given the rapid expansion in the demand for mineral commodities that underpin worldwide economic growth and technological advancement, information regarding expected country-level mine production and production capacity is becoming increasingly important to industry stakeholders, end users, and policymakers. Production capacity can limit future supply, depending on how rapidly that capacity is able to expand. Current capacity can be evaluated on the basis of past production. Decreases to future capacity can be taken into account from announcements of planned shutdowns of mines or processing facilities, which are frequently publicized well in advance of such closures. Likewise, capacity expansions, which usually involve multiple stages—such as permitting, financing, and construction (all of which take time)—can also be estimated. As such, it is possible to evaluate midterm future capacity based on estimates of today’s capacities along with consideration of future investment plans. This World Minerals Outlook provides estimated capacities for cobalt, gallium, helium, lithium, magnesium, palladium, platinum, and titanium for 2025 through 2029.

The results of this analysis indicate that two mineral commodities important to the manufacture of lithium-ion batteries—cobalt and lithium—are expected to have large capacity growth in the next few years, likely owing to expectations for increased demand for these batteries. For gallium, helium, palladium, and platinum, capacity is expected to remain stable or exhibit moderate growth. Still, these expected capacity levels are higher than current production, allowing for future production growth. The production capacity outlook is opaque for magnesium and titanium metal, which have a significant fraction of current production in nonmarket economies, such as China and Russia. Ultimately, though, where free market conditions prevail, full utilization of capacity potential for those commodities is likely to depend on supply deficits and prices that are above production costs.

Suggested Citation

Alonso, E., Brioche, A.S., Schulte, R.F., Trimmer, L.M., Kim, J.-E., Gulley, A.L., and Pineault, D.G., 2025, World minerals outlook—Cobalt, gallium, helium, lithium, magnesium, palladium, platinum, and titanium through 2029 (ver. 1.1, March 14, 2025): U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 025–5021, 19 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20255021.

ISSN: 2328-0328 (online)

Table of Contents

  • Preface
  • Abstract
  • Introduction
  • Production and Capacity Utilization
  • Methodology and Data Collection
  • Mineral Outlook Through 2029
  • Acknowledgments
  • References Cited
Publication type Report
Publication Subtype USGS Numbered Series
Title World minerals outlook—Cobalt, gallium, helium, lithium, magnesium, palladium, platinum, and titanium through 2029
Series title Scientific Investigations Report
Series number 2025-5021
DOI 10.3133/sir20255021
Edition Version 1.0: March 11, 2025; Version 1.1: March 14, 2025
Publication Date March 11, 2025
Year Published 2025
Language English
Publisher U.S. Geological Survey
Publisher location Reston, VA
Contributing office(s) National Minerals Information Center
Description Report: vi, 19 p.; Data Release
Online Only (Y/N) Y
Additional publication details