Participatory engagement to reduce communication gaps
Legna M. Torres-Garcia, Manuel Valdés Pizzini, Krystalliá Valdés-Calderón, Donya P. Frank-Gilchrist, Dawn Marie Kotowicz, Emmanuel Maldonado, Priscila Vargas-Babilonia
2025, Natural Hazards (121) 6367-6390
Underserved communities, especially those in coastal areas in Puerto Rico, face significant threats from natural hazards such as hurricanes and rising sea levels. Limited funding hinders the investment in costly mitigation measures, increasing exposure to natural disasters. Providing coastal resources and data products through effective communication mechanisms is fundamental to...
Automated, near real-time ground-motion processing at the U.S. Geological Survey
Eric M. Thompson, Mike Hearne, Brad T. Aagaard, J.M. Rekoske, Charles Worden, Morgan P. Moschetti, Heather Elizabeth Hunsinger, Gabe C. Ferragut, Grace Alexandra Parker, James Andrew Smith, Kyle Ken Smith, Albert R. Kottke
2025, Seismological Research Letters (96) 538-553
We describe automated ground‐motion processing software named gmprocess that has been developed at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in support of near‐real‐time earthquake hazard products. Because of the open‐source development process, this software has benefitted from the involvement and contributions of a broad community and has been used for a...
Geologic map and structure sections along the southern part of the Bartlett Springs Fault Zone and adjacent areas from Cache Creek to Lake Berryessa, northern Coast Ranges, California
Benjamin L. Melosh, Jackson W. Bodtker, Zenon C. Valin
2024, Scientific Investigations Map 3514
IntroductionLocated in the Coast Ranges of northern California, the Bartlett Springs Fault Zone is the easternmost fault in the San Andreas Fault system in northern California. The fault is a right-lateral, strike-slip structure considered capable of producing an earthquake of moment magnitude 7. The purpose of this mapping is to...
Using the horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio method to estimate thickness of the Barry Arm landslide, Prince William Sound, Alaska
Andrew L. Collins, Kate E. Allstadt, Dennis M. Staley
2024, Open-File Report 2024-1071
Conducting detailed investigations of large landslides is difficult, especially in the subsurface, largely due to environmental factors such as steep slopes, difficult access, and numerous objective hazards. These factors have made it challenging to accurately estimate the depth to the failure surface of the Barry Arm landslide, a large (roughly...
Effective site coefficients for the 2024 International Building Code (IBC)
Sanaz Rezaeian, Nico Luco, Andrew James Makdisi, Henry Mason
2024, Conference Paper
The U.S. National Seismic Hazard Models (NSHMs), developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), have long been the scientific foundation of seismic design guidelines and have been used to compute design ground motions for construction of new buildings and retrofit of existing buildings in the United States and its territories....
U.S. Geological Survey Earthquake Hazards Program decadal science strategy, 2024–33
Gavin P. Hayes, Annemarie S. Baltay Sundstrom, William D. Barnhart, Michael L. Blanpied, Lindsay A. Davis, Paul S. Earle, Edward H. Field, Jill M. Franks, Douglas D. Given, Ryan D. Gold, Christine A Goulet, Michelle M. Guy, Jeanne L. Hardebeck, Nico Luco, Frederick Pollitz, Adam T. Ringler, Katherine M. Scharer, Steven Sobieszczyk, Valerie I. Thomas, Cecily J. Wolfe
2024, Circular 1544
Executive Summary Earthquakes represent one of our Nation’s most significant and costly natural hazards, with estimated annual loses from earthquakes close to $15 billion in 2023. Over the past two centuries, 37 U.S. States have experienced an earthquake exceeding a magnitude of 5, and 50 percent of States have a significant...
Evaluating the impact of uncertainty in ground motion forecasts for post-earthquake impact modeling applications
Davis T. Engler, Kishor S. Jaiswal, Mahadevan Ganesh
2024, Earthquake Spectra Journal (41) 524-546
The US Geological Survey’s (USGS) ShakeMap system provides a rapid characterization of strong ground shaking in areas directly affected by an earthquake. This study focuses on studying the aggregate effects of macroseismic shaking estimates from ShakeMap, expressed in terms of modified Mercalli intensity (MMI), when accounting for the uncertainty in...
Introduction to recommended capabilities and instrumentation for volcano monitoring in the United States
Ashton F. Flinders, Jacob B. Lowenstern, Michelle L. Coombs, Michael P. Poland
2024, Scientific Investigations Report 2024-5062-A
IntroductionThe National Volcano Early Warning System (NVEWS) was authorized and partially funded by the U.S. Government in 2019. In response, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Volcano Hazards Program asked its scientists to reflect on and summarize their views of best practices for volcano monitoring. The goal was to review and...
Seismic techniques and suggested instrumentation to monitor volcanoes
Weston A. Thelen, John J. Lyons, Aaron G. Wech, Seth C. Moran, Matthew M. Haney, Ashton F. Flinders
2024, Scientific Investigations Report 2024-5062-B
IntroductionChanges in the pressure or location of magma can stress or break surrounding rocks and trigger flow of nearby waters and gases, causing seismic signals, such as discrete earthquakes and tremor. These phenomena are types of seismic unrest that commonly precede eruption and can be used to forecast volcanic activity....
Monitoring marine eruptions
Gabrielle Tepp
2024, Scientific Investigations Report 2024-5062-I
IntroductionSubmarine volcanoes produce much of the same seismicity and eruptive activity as subaerial volcanoes and can pose hazards to society. Although they can be monitored with similar techniques and methods as described in other chapters of this volume, their submerged location brings unique challenges. This chapter addresses these challenges and...
Streams, springs, and volcanic lakes for volcano monitoring
Steven E. Ingebritsen, Shaul Hurwitz
2024, Scientific Investigations Report 2024-5062-F
IntroductionVolcanic unrest can trigger appreciable change to surface waters such as streams, springs, and volcanic lakes. Magma degassing produces gases and soluble salts that are absorbed into groundwater that feeds streams and lakes. As magma ascends, the amount of heat and degassing will increase, and so will any related geochemical...
Preliminary observations of the April 5th, 2024, Mw4.8 New Jersey earthquake
Oliver S. Boyd, William D. Barnhart, James Bourke, Martin C. Chapman, Paul S. Earle, Guo-chin Dino Huang, Jessica Ann Thompson Jobe, Won-Young Kim, Frederick Link, Mairi Maclean Litherland, Andrew Lloyd, Maureen Long, Sara K. McBride, Andrew J. Michael, Walter D. Mooney, Gregory Moutain, Sissy Nikolaou, Alexandros Savvaidas, Felix Waldhauser, Cecily J. Wolfe, Clara Yoon
2024, The Seismic Record (4) 240-250
On 5 April 2024, 10:23 a.m. local time, a moment magnitude 4.8 earthquake struck Tewksbury Township, New Jersey, about 65 km west of New York City. Millions of people from Virginia to Maine and beyond felt the ground shaking, resulting in the largest number (>180,000)...
Plan to coordinate post-earthquake investigations supported by the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP)
Chris Poland, Jonathan D. Bray, Laurie Johnson, Sissy Nikolaou, Ellen Rathje, Brian Sherrod
2024, Circular 1542
IntroductionThis report presents a plan supported by the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) to coordinate domestic and international post-earthquake investigations (herein called “the Plan”). Post-earthquake scientific and engineering investigations are undertaken to capture critical information to understand the causes and impacts of the event, lessons from which can substantially...
Hydrogeologic conceptual model of groundwater occurrence and brine discharge to the Dolores River in the Paradox Valley, Montrose County, Colorado
Suzanne S. Paschke, M. Alisa Mast, Philip M. Gardner, Connor P. Newman, Kenneth R. Watts
2024, Scientific Investigations Report 2023-5094
Salinity, or total dissolved solids (TDS), of the Colorado River is a major concern in the southwestern United States where the river provides water to about 40 million people for municipal and industrial use and is used to irrigate about 5.5 million acres of land. Much of the salinity in...
Status and performance of the ShakeAlert® earthquake early warning system: 2019-2023
A.I. Lux, Deborah Smith, M. Böse, Jeffrey J. McGuire, Jessie K. Saunders, Minh Huynh, I. Stubailo, Jennifer R Andrews, G. Lotto, B. Crowell, S. Crane, R. M. Allen, Douglas D. Given, R. Hartog, T. Heaton, A. Husker, J. Marty, Leland O'Driscoll, Harold J. Tobin, Sara K. McBride, D. Toomey
2024, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (114) 3041-3062
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)‐operated ShakeAlert® system is the United States West Coast earthquake early warning system (Given et al., 2018). In this study we detail ShakeAlert’s performance during some of the largest events seen by the system thus far. Statewide public alerting using ShakeAlert messages was authorized...
The 2023 Alaska National Seismic Hazard Model
Peter M. Powers, Jason M. Altekruse, Andrea L. Llenos, Andrew J. Michael, Kirstie Lafon Haynie, Peter J. Haeussler, Adrian Bender, Sanaz Rezaeian, Morgan P. Moschetti, James Andrew Smith, Richard W. Briggs, Robert C. Witter, Charles Mueller, Yuehua Zeng, Demi Leafar Girot, Julie A. Herrick, Allison Shumway, Mark D. Petersen
2024, Earthquake Spectra (40) 2545-2597
US Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Models (NSHMs) are used extensively for seismic design regulations in the United States and earthquake scenario development, as well as risk assessment and mitigation for both buildings and infrastructure. This 2023 update of the long-term, time-independent Alaska NSHM includes substantial changes to both...
Quantitative risk of earthquake disruption to global copper and rhenium supply
Kishor S. Jaiswal, Nico Luco, Emily K. Schnebele, Nedal T. Nassar, Donya Otarod
2024, Open-File Report 2024-1028
Earthquakes have the potential to substantially affect mining operations, potentially leading to supply chain disruptions and adversely affecting the global economy. This study explores the quantification of earthquake risk to copper and rhenium commodity supply by examining the spatial concentration of high earthquake hazard areas and the commodity-specific mining, smelting,...
Near-real-time earthquake-induced fatality estimation using crowdsourced data and few-shot large-language models
Chenguang Wang, Davis T. Engler, Xuechun Li, James Hou, David J. Wald, Kishor S. Jaiswal, Susu Xu
2024, International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction (111)
When a damaging earthquake occurs, immediate information about casualties (e.g., fatalities and injuries) is critical for time-sensitive decision-making by emergency response and aid agencies in the first hours and days. Systems such as the Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)...
Field observations and logs from the Rose Hip trench exposure across a north-facing scarp within the Seattle Fault Zone, southern Bainbridge Island, Washington
Stephen J. Angster, Brian Sherrod, Wes Johns, Jessie K. Pearl
2024, Scientific Investigations Map 3520
The Seattle Fault Zone is an approximately 70-km-long, east-west-trending zone of south-dipping blind reverse faults within the Puget lowland region in Washington. Because of the proximity, the Seattle Fault Zone poses a significant earthquake hazard to the Puget sound and Seattle metropolitan regions. We present preliminary mapping and trench-site information...
Colored shaded relief bathymetry and acoustic backscatter of Ozette Lake, Washington
Peter Dartnell, Daniel S. Brothers, Andrew C. Ritchie, Brian Sherrod, Jackson E. Currie, Peter Dal Ferro, Daniel C. Powers
2024, Scientific Investigations Map 3517
Offshore of the Pacific Northwest of the United States is the Cascadia Subduction Zone, a 1,000-kilometer-long tectonic boundary defined by a large fault, called a megathrust, that extends from the Mendocino Junction off northern California to the Nootka Fracture Zone off Vancouver Island, Canada (U.S. Geological Survey, 2023). The Juan...
Earthquake scenario development in conjunction with the 2023 USGS National Seismic Hazard Model
Robert Edward Chase, Kishor S. Jaiswal, Mark D. Petersen
2024, Earthquake Spectra (40) 1818-1844
We present earthquake scenarios developed to accompany the release of the 2023 update to the US Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM). Scenarios can serve a range of local and regional needs, from developing proactive-targeted mitigation strategies for minimizing impending risk to aiding emergency management planning. These deterministic scenarios...
Integration of rupture directivity models for the US National Seismic Hazard Model
Kyle Withers, Morgan P. Moschetti, Peter M. Powers, Mark D. Petersen, Robert Graves, Brad T. Aagaard, Annemarie S. Baltay Sundstrom, Nico Luco, Erin A. Wirth, Sanaz Rezaeian, Eric M. Thompson
2024, Earthquake Spectra (40) 1066-1098
Several rupture directivity models (DMs) have been developed in recent years to describe the near-source spatial variations in ground motion amplitudes related to propagation of rupture along the fault. We recently organized an effort towards incorporating these directivity effects into the USGS National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM), by first evaluating...
Evaluation of 2-D shear-wave velocity models and VS30at six strong-motion recording stations in southern California using multichannel analysis of surface waves and refraction tomography
Joanne H. Chan, Rufus D. Catchings, Mark R. Goldman, Coyn J. Criley, Robert R. Sickler
2024, Open-File Report 2024-1016
To better understand the potential for amplified ground shaking at sites that house critical infrastructure, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) evaluated shear-wave velocities (VS) at six strong-motion recording stations in Southern California Edison facilities in southern California. We calculated VS30 (time-averaged shear-wave velocity in the upper 30 meters [m]), which...
Forecasting the long-term spatial distribution of earthquakes for the 2023 US National Seismic Hazard Model using gridded seismicity
Andrea L. Llenos, Andrew J. Michael, Allison Shumway, Justin Rubinstein, Kirstie Lafon Haynie, Morgan P. Moschetti, Jason M. Altekruse, Kevin R. Milner
2024, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (114) 2028-2053
Probabilistic seismic hazard analyses such as the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) typically rely on declustering and spatially smoothing an earthquake catalog to estimate a long‐term time‐independent (background) seismicity rate to forecast future seismicity. In support of the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) 2023 update to the NSHM, we update...
Empirical ground-motion basin response in the California Great Valley, Reno, Nevada, and Portland, Oregon
Sean Kamran Ahdi, Brad T. Aagaard, Morgan P. Moschetti, Grace Alexandra Parker, Oliver S. Boyd, William J. Stephenson
2024, Earthquake Spectra (40) 1099-1131
We assess how well the Next-Generation Attenuation-West 2 (NGA-West2) ground-motion models (GMMs), which are used in the US Geological Survey’s (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for crustal faults in the western United States, predict the observed basin response in the Great Valley of California, the Reno...