Extending seasonal discharge records for streamgage sites on the North Fork Fortymile and Middle Fork Fortymile Rivers, Alaska, through water year 2020
Janet H. Curran
2021, Scientific Investigations Report 2021-5014
Daily mean discharge records are needed for management of selected streams in the Fortymile River Basin. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Bureau of Land Management, updated a technique for estimating seasonal (partial year) discharge at two short-record streamgage sites in the basin and evaluated the...
Gulf Coast vicariance shapes phylogeographic history of a North American freshwater mussel species complex
Sean M. Keogh, Nathan Johnson, James D. Williams, Charles R. Randklev, Andrew Simons
2021, Journal of Biogeography (48) 1138-1152
AimFreshwater mussels share habitat and are parasites of freshwater fishes during the larval life stage. Therefore, models of fish biogeography may also explain the historical biogeography of freshwater mussels. We tested this assumption using predictions of three biogeographic models constructed for northern Gulf...
Extreme-event magnetic storm probabilities derived from rank statistics of historical Dst intensities for solar cycles 14-24
Jeffrey J. Love
2021, Space Weather (19)
A compilation is made of the largest and second-largest magnetic-storm-maximum intensities, −Dst1 and −Dst2, for solar cycles 14–24 (1902–2016) by sampling Oulu Dcx for cycles 19–24, using published −Dstm values for 4 intense storms in cycles 14, 15, and 18 (1903, 1909, 1921, 1946), and calculating 15 new storm-maximum −Dstm values (reported here) for cycles...
A study of marine temperature variations in the northern Gulf of Alaska across years of marine heatwaves and cold spells
Seth L. Danielson, Tyler D. Hennon, Daniel Monson, Rob M. Suryan, Rob W. Campbell, Steven J. Baird, Kristine Holderied, Thomas Weingartner
2021, Report, The Pacific marine heatwave: Monotoring during a major perturbation in the Gulf of Alaska
We use over 100 in situ and remotely sensed temperature datasets to investigate thermal variability within and across the intertidal nearshore, coastal and offshore waters of the northern Gulf of Alaska. For the years 1970 through 2019 we document a warming trend of 0.24±0.10 °C per decade for the coastal...
Submarine lava deltas of the 2018 eruption of Kilauea volcano
S. Adam Soule, Michael H. Zoeller, Carolyn Parcheta
2021, Bulletin of Volcanology (83)
Hawaiian and other ocean island lava flows that reach the coastline can deposit significant volumes of lava in submarine deltas. The catastrophic collapse of these deltas represents one of the most significant, but least predictable, volcanic hazards at ocean islands. The volume of lava deposited below...
‘Unscrambling’ the drivers of egg production in Agassiz’s desert tortoise: Climate and individual attributes predict reproductive output
Corey I. Mitchell, Derek Friend, Lauren T. Phillips, Elizabeth A. Hunter, Jeffrey E. Lovich, Mickey Agha, Shellie R. Puffer, Kristy L. Cummings, Philip A. Medica, Todd Esque, Kenneth E. Nussear, Kevin T. Shoemaker
2021, Endangered Species Research (44) 217-230
ABSTRACT: The ‘bet hedging’ life history strategy of long-lived iteroparous species reduces short-term reproductive output to minimize the risk of reproductive failure over a lifetime. For desert-dwelling ectotherms living in variable and unpredictable environments, reproductive output is further influenced by precipitation and temperature via effects on food availability and...
Numerical analysis of the effect of subgrid variability in a physically based hydrological model on runoff, soil moisture, and slope stability
E. Leonarduzzi, R. M. Maxwell, Benjamin B. Mirus, P. Molnar
2021, Water Resources Research (57)
In coarse resolution hydrological modeling we face the problem of subgrid variability, the effects of which are difficult to express and are often hidden in the parameterization and calibration. We present a numerical experiment with the physically based hydrological model ParFlow‐CLM with which we quantify the effect of subgrid heterogeneities...
Expected warning times from the ShakeAlert earthquake early warning system for earthquakes in the Pacific Northwest
Jeffrey J. McGuire, Deborah E. Smith, Arthur D. Frankel, Erin A. Wirth, Sara K. McBride, Robert M. de Groot
2021, Open-File Report 2021-1026
The ShakeAlert® earthquake early warning system has been live since October 2019 for the testing of public alerting to mobile devices in California and will soon begin testing this modality in Oregon and Washington. The Pacific Northwest presents new challenges and opportunities for ShakeAlert owing to the different types of...
Performance of the GenEst Mortality Estimator Compared to The Huso and Shoenfeld Estimators
Paul Rabie, Daniel Riser-Espinoza, Jared Studyvin, Daniel Dalthorp, Manuela Huso
2021, Report
The impacts of wind power development on bat and bird populations are commonly assessed by estimating the number of fatalities at wind power facilities through post-construction monitoring (PCM) studies. Standard methodology involves periodic carcass searches on plots beneath turbines (Strickland et al. 2011, US Fish and Wildlife Service 2012). The...
Seasonal movements of muskellunge in the St. Clair – Detroit River System: Implications for multi-jurisdictional fisheries management
Jan-Michael Hessenauer, Cleyo Harris, Stephen Marklevitz, Matthew D. Faust, Michael W. Thorn, Brad Utrup, Darryl W. Hondorp
2021, Journal of Great Lakes Research (47) 475-485
The St. Clair-Detroit River System contains a world-class Great Lakes muskellunge (Esox masquinongy) fishery that has avoided the declines observed in many Great Lakes muskellunge populations. Muskellunge are an upper trophic level predator, and therefore a naturally low-density species. Limited fishery-independent data exist on which to base management decisions. To...
Argentine Black and White Tegu (Salvator merianae) can survive the winter under semi-natural conditions well beyond their current invasive range
Scott Michael Goetz, David A. Steen, Melissa A. Miller, Craig Guyer, Jack Kottwitz, John F. Roberts, Emmett Blankenship, Phillip R. Pearson, Daniel A. Warner, Robert Reed
2021, PLoS ONE (16)
The Argentine Black and White Tegu (Salvator merianae, formerly Tupinambis merianae) is a large lizard from South America. Now established and invasive in southern Florida, and it poses threats to populations of many native species. Models suggest much of the southern United States may contain suitable temperature regimes for this species,...
Probabilities of detecting submersed aquatic vegetation species using a rake method may vary with biomass
Brian R. Gray
2021, Aquatic Botany (171)
Levels of submersed aquatic vegetation (SAV) are commonly assessed using a modified garden rake. However, the utility of the rake sampling method relative to methods that are typically viewed as more definitive (and expensive) such as snorkeling and coring remains a matter of debate. This study explores whether probabilities of...
Development and validation of a spatially-explicit agent-based model for space utilization by African savanna elephants (Loxodonta africana) based on determinants of movement
Stephanie G. Diaz, Donald L. DeAngelis, Michael S. Gaines, Andrew Purdon, Michael A. Mole, Rudi J. van Aarde
2021, Ecological Modelling (447)
African elephants (Loxodonta africana) are well-studied and inhabit diverse landscapes that are being transformed by both humans and natural forces. Most tools currently in use are limited in their ability to predict how elephants will respond to novel changes in the environment. Individual-, or agent-based modeling (ABM), may extend current methods in...
UAV-based estimate of snow cover dynamics: Optimizing semi-arid forest structure for snow persistence
Adam Belmonte, Temuulen T. Sankey, Joel Biedermann, John B. Bradford, Scott J Goetz, Thomas Kolb
2021, Remote Sensing (13)
Seasonal snow cover in the dry forests of the American West provides essential water resources to both human and natural systems. The structure of trees and their arrangement across the landscape are important drivers of snow cover distribution across these forests, varying widely in both space and time. We used...
Temperature‐associated decreases in demographic rates of Afrotropical bird species over 30 years
Monte Neate-Clegg, Thomas Stanley, Cagen Sekerciouglu, William Newmard
2021, Global Change Biology (27) 2254-2268
Tropical mountains harbor globally significant levels of biodiversity and endemism. Climate change threatens many tropical montane species, yet little research has assessed the effects of climate change on the demographic rates of tropical species, particularly in the Afrotropics. Here, we report on the demographic rates of...
Augmented normalized difference water index for improved monitoring of surface water
Arash Modaresi Rad, Jason R. Kreitler, Mojitaba Sadegh
2021, Environmental Modeling and Software (140)
We present a comprehensive critical review of well-established satellite remote sensing water indices and offer a novel, robust Augmented Normalized Difference Water Index (ANDWI). ANDWI employs an expanded set of spectral bands, RGB, NIR, and SWIR1-2, to maximize the contrast between water and non-water pixels. Further, we implement a dynamic thresholding method, the...
Global Changes in 20-year, 50-year and 100-year River Floods
Louise Slater, Gabriele Villarini, Stacey A. Archfield, Daniel R. Faulkner, R. N. Lambe, A. Khouakhi, Jiabo Yin
2021, Geophysical Research Letters (48)
Concepts like the 100-year flood event can be misleading if they are not updated to reflect significant changes over time. Here, we model observed annual maximum daily streamflow using a nonstationary approach to provide the first global picture of changes in: (a) the magnitudes of the 20-,...
Continent-wide tree fecundity driven by indirect climate effects
James S. Clark, Robert A. Andrus, Melaine Aubry-Kientz, Yves Bergeron, Michal Bogdziewicz, Don C. Bragg, Dale G. Brockway, Natalie L. Cleavitt, Susan Cohen, Benoit Courbaud, Robert Daley, Adrian Das, Michael Dietze, Timothy J. Fahey, Istem Fer, Jerry F. Franklin, Catherine A. Gehring, Gregory S. Gilbert, Catheryn H Greenberg, Qinfeng Guo, Janneke Hille Ris Lambers, Ines Ibanez, Jill F. Johnstone, Christopher L. Kilner, Johannes M.H. Knops, Walter D. Koenig, Georges Kunstler, Jalene M. LaMontagne, Kristin L Legg, Jordan Luongo, James A. Lutz, Diana Macias, Eliot J. B. McIntire, Yassine Messaoud, Christopher M. Moore, Emily V. Moran, Orrin B Myers, Chase Nunez, Robert Parmenter, Scott Pearson, Renata Poulton Kamakura, Ethan Ready, Miranda D. Redmond, Chantal D. Reid, Kyle C. Rodman, C. Lane Scher, Wiliam H Schlesinger, Amanda M Schwantes, Erin Shanahan, Shubhi Sharma, Michael A. Steele, Nathan L. Stephenson, Samantha Sutton, Jennifer J. Swenson, Margaret Swift, Thomas T. Veblen, Amy V. Whipple, Thomas G. Whitham, Andreas P. Wion, Kai Zhu, Roman Zlotin
2021, Nature Communications (12)
Indirect climate effects on tree fecundity that come through variation in size and growth (climate-condition interactions) are not currently part of models used to predict future forests. Trends in species abundances predicted from meta-analyses and species distribution models will be misleading if they depend on the...
Locally abundant, endangered Mariana swiftlets impact the abundance, behavior, and body condition of an invasive predator
Page E. Klug, Amy A. Yackel Adams, Shane R. Siers, Kevin M Brindock, Stephen M. Mosher, MJ Mazurek, William C. Pitt, Robert Reed
2021, Oecologia (195) 1083-1097
Invasive predators are known to have negative consumptive and non-consumptive effects on native species, but few examples show how the abundance of native prey may influence an established invasive predator. We compared invasive brown treesnakes (Boiga irregularis; BTS) found in caves occupied by endangered Mariana swiftlets...
Migrating whooping cranes avoid wind-energy infrastructure when selecting stopover habitat
Aaron T. Pearse, Kristine L. Metzger, David A. Brandt, Jill A. Shaffer, Mark T. Bidwell, Wade C. Harrell
2021, Ecological Applications (31)
Electricity generation from renewable-energy sources has increased dramatically worldwide in recent decades. Risks associated with wind-energy infrastructure are not well understood for endangered whooping cranes or other vulnerable crane populations. From 2010 to 2016, we monitored 57 whooping cranes with remote-telemetry devices in the United States Great Plains to determine...
Prioritizing landscapes for grassland bird conservation with hierarchical community models
Adrian Pierre-Frederic Monroe, David R. Edmunds, Cameron L. Aldridge, Matthew J Holloran, Timothy J Assal, Alison G Holloran
2021, Landscape Ecology (36) 1023-1038
ContextGiven widespread population declines of birds breeding in North American grasslands, management that sustains wildlife while supporting rancher livelihoods is needed. However, management effects vary across landscapes, and identifying areas with the greatest potential bird response to conservation is a pressing research need.ObjectivesWe developed a hierarchical...
Slip distribution and rupture history of the August 11, 2012, double earthquakes in Ahar – Varzaghan, Iran, using joint inversion of teleseismic broadband and local strong motion data
Atefeh Saltanatpouri, Stephen H. Hartzell, Habib Rahimi, Rahmatollah Rouhollahi, Rouholla Amiri Fard
2021, Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors (313)
We use combined teleseismic and strong motion data sets to investigate finite-fault slip models for a double of earthquakes that occurred on August 11, 2012, in northwestern Iran near the cities of Ahar and Varzaghan. The data include teleseismic P-waveforms retrieved from broadband seismic stations located between 30°–94° from...
Cyanotoxin mixture models: Relating environmental variables and toxin co-occurrence to human exposure risk
Victoria Christensen, Erin A. Stelzer, Barbara C. Scudder Eikenberry, Hayley T. Olds, Jaime F. LeDuc, Ryan P. Maki, Jack E. Norland, Eakalak Khan
2021, Journal of Hazardous Materials (415)
Toxic cyanobacterial blooms, often containing multiple toxins, are a serious public health issue. However, there are no known models that predict a cyanotoxin mixture (anatoxin-a, microcystin, saxitoxin). This paper presents two cyanotoxin mixture models (MIX) and compares them to two microcystin (MC) models from data collected in 2016–2017 from three...
Simulation of dissolved organic carbon flux in the Penobscot Watershed, Maine
Shabnam Rouhani, Crystal B. Schaaf, Thomas G. Huntington, Janet Choate
2021, Ecohydrology & Hydrobiology (21) 256-270
Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) is an important component of the carbon cycle as a measure of the hydrological transport of carbon between terrestrial carbon pools into soil pools and eventually into streams. As a result, changes in DOC in rivers and streams may indicate alterations in the storage of terrestrial...
The making of the NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18)
Roberto Basili, Beatriz Brizuela, Andre Herrero, Sarfraz Iqbal, Stefano Lorito, Francesco Emanuele Maesano, Shane Murphy, Paolo Perfetti, Fabrizio Romano, Antonio Scala, Jacopo Selva, Matteo Taroni, Mara Monica Tiberti, Hong Kie Thio, R. Tonini, Manuela Volpe, Sylfest Glimsdal, Carl B. Harbitz, Finn Lovholt, Maria Ana Baptista, Fernando Carrilho, Luis M. A. Matias, Rachid Omira, Andrey Babeyko, Andreas Hoechner, Mucahit Gurbuz, Onur Pekcan, A. Yalciner, Miquel Canals, Galderic Lastras, Apostolos Agalos, Gerassimo Papadapoulos, Ioanna Triantafyllou, Sabah Benchekroun, Hedi Agrebi Jaouadi, Samir Ben Abdallah, Atef Bouallegue, Hassene Hamdi, Foued Oueslati, A. Amato, Alberto Armigliato, Jorn Behrens, Gareth Davies, Daniela Di Bucci, Mauro Dolce, Eric L. Geist, Jose Manuel Gonzalez Vida, Mauricio Gonzalez, Jorges Macias Sanchez, C. Meletti, Ceren Ozer Sozdinler, Marco Pagani, Tom Parsons, Jascha Polet, William Power, Mathilde B. Sorensen, Andrey Zaytsev
2021, Frontiers in Earth Science (8)
The NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18) is a probabilistic hazard model for tsunamis generated by earthquakes. It covers the coastlines of the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean, and connected seas (NEAM). NEAMTHM18 was designed as a three-phase project. The first two phases were dedicated to the model development...
