Probabilistic patterns of inundation and biogeomorphic changes due to sea-level rise along the northeastern U.S. Atlantic coast
Erika E. Lentz, Sara L. Zeigler, E. Robert Thieler, Nathaniel G. Plant
2021, Landscape Ecology (36) 223-241
ContextCoastal landscapes evolve in response to sea-level rise (SLR) through a variety of geologic processes and ecological feedbacks. When the SLR rate surpasses the rate at which these processes build elevation and drive lateral migration, inundation is likely.ObjectivesTo examine the role of land cover diversity and...
Uncertainty in critical source area predictions from watershed-scale hydrologic models
Grey R. Evenson, Margaret M Kalcic, Yu-Chen Wang, Dale M. Robertson, Donald Scavia, Jay Martin, Noel Aloysius, Anna Apostel, Chelsie Boles, Michael Brooker, Remegio Confesor, Awoke T Dagnew, Tian Guo, Jeffrey Kast, Hailey Kajawa, Rebecca Logsdon Muenich, Asmita Murumkar, Todd Redder
2021, Journal of Environmental Management (279)
Watershed-scale hydrologic models are frequently used to inform conservation and restoration efforts by identifying critical source areas (CSAs; alternatively 'hotspots'), defined as areas that export relatively greater quantities of nutrients and sediment. The CSAs can then be prioritized or ‘targeted’ for...
Multi-year hydroclimatic droughts and pluvials across the conterminous United States
Gregory J. McCabe, David M. Wolock
2021, International Journal of Climatology (41) 1731-1746
Time series of water‐year runoff for 2,109 hydrologic units (HUs) across the conterminous United States (CONUS) for the 1900 through 2014 period were used to identify drought and pluvial (i.e., wet) periods. Characteristics of the drought and pluvial events including frequency, duration, and severity were examined...
Germination potential of baldcypress (Taxodium distichum) swamp soil seed bank along geographical gradients
Ting Lei, Beth Middleton
2021, Science of the Total Environment (759)
Changing environments of temperature, precipitation and moisture availability can affect vegetation in ecosystems, by affecting regeneration from the seed bank. Our objective was to explore the responses of soil seed bank germination to climate-related environments along geographic gradients. We collected seed banks in baldcypress...
A Bayesian Dirichlet process community occupancy model to estimate community structure and species similarity
Rahel Sollmann, Mitchell J. Eaton, William Link, Paul Mulundo, Samuel Ayebare, Sarah Prinsloo, Andrew J. Plumptre, D.S. Johnson
2021, Ecological Applications (31)
Community occupancy models estimate species‐specific parameters while sharing information across species by treating parameters as sampled from a common distribution. When communities consist of discrete groups, shrinkage of estimates towards the community mean can mask differences among groups. Infinite mixture models using a Dirichlet process (DP) distribution, in which the...
Transport and speciation of uranium in groundwater-surface water systems impacted by legacy milling operations
Patrick A. Byrne, Christopher C. Fuller, David L. Naftz, Robert L. Runkel, Niklas J Lehto, William L Dam
2021, Science of the Total Environment (761)
Growing worldwide concern over uranium contamination of groundwater resources has placed an emphasis on understanding uranium transport dynamics and potential toxicity in groundwater-surface water systems. In this study, we utilized novel in-situ sampling methods to establish the location and magnitude of contaminated groundwater entry into a receiving surface water environment,...
A generic soil velocity model that accounts for near-surface conditions and deeper geologic structure
Nasser A. Marafi, Alex R. Grant, Brett W. Maurer, Gunjan Rateria, Marc O Eberhard, Jeff W Berman
2021, Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering (140)
Near-surface soil conditions can significantly alter the amplitude and frequency content of incoming ground motions – often with profound consequences for the built environment – and are thus important inputs to any ground-motion prediction. Previous soil-velocity models (SVM) have predicted shear-wave...
Applying cumulative effects to strategically advance large‐scale ecosystem restoration
Heida L. Diefenderfer, Gregory Steyer, Matthew C. Harwell, Andrew J LoSchiavo, Hilary A. Neckles, David M. Burdick, Gary E. Johnson, Kate E. Buenau, Elene Trujillo, John C. Callaway, Ronald M. Thom, Neil K. Ganju, Robert R. Twilley
2021, Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment (19) 108-117
International efforts to restore degraded ecosystems will continue to expand over the coming decades, yet the factors contributing to the effectiveness of long‐term restoration across large areas remain largely unexplored. At large scales, outcomes are more complex and synergistic than the additive impacts of individual restoration projects. Here, we propose...
Evaluation of seismic hazard models with fragile geologic features
Mark W. Stirling, Mike Oskin, J. Ramon Arrowsmith, Anna H. Rood, Christine A. Goulet, Lisa Grant Ludwig, Tamarah King, Albert Kottke, Julian C. Lozos, Chris L M Madugo, Devin McPhillips, Dylan Rood, Norman Sleep, Christine Wittich
2021, Seismological Research Letters (92) 314-324
We provide an overview of a 2019 workshop on the use of fragile geologic features (FGFs) to evaluate seismic hazard models. FGFs have been scarcely utilized in the evaluation of seismic hazard models, despite nearly 30 yr having passed since the first recognition of their...
Possible effects of climate change on ixodid ticks and the pathogens they transmit: Predictions and observations
Nicholas H. Ogden, Charles B. Beard, Howard S. Ginsberg, Jean I. Tsao
2021, Journal of Medical Entomology (58) 1536-1545
The global climate has been changing over the last century due to greenhouse gas emissions and will continue to change over this century, accelerating without effective global efforts to reduce emissions. Ticks and tick-borne diseases (TTBDs) are inherently climate-sensitive due to the sensitivity of tick lifecycles to climate. Key...
Estimating the contribution of tributary sand inputs to controlled flood deposits for sandbar restoration using elemental tracers, Colorado River, Grand Canyon National Park, Arizona
Katherine A. Chapman, Rebecca J. Best, M. Elliot Smith, Erich R. Mueller, Paul E. Grams, Roderic A. Parnell
2021, Geological Society of America Bulletin (133) 1141-1156
Completion of Glen Canyon Dam in 1963 resulted in complete elimination of sediment delivery from the upstream Colorado River basin to Grand Canyon and nearly complete control of spring snowmelt floods responsible for creating channel and bar morphology. Management of the river ecosystem in Grand Canyon National Park now relies...
Carrying capacity of spatially distributed metapopulations
Bo Zhang, Don DeAngelis, Wei-Ming Ni
2021, Trends in Ecology and Evolution (36) 164-173
Carrying capacity is a key concept in ecology. A body of theory, based on the logistic equation, has extended predictions of carrying capacity to spatially distributed, dispersing populations. However, this theory has only recently been tested empirically. The experimental results disagree...
Habitat modelling locates nesting areas of the endangered Black-capped Petrel Pterodroma hasitata on Hispaniola and identifies habitat loss
Y. G. Satge, E. Rupp, A. J. Brown, Patrick G.R. Jodice
2021, Bird Conservation International (31) 573-590
The Black-capped Petrel or Diablotin Pterodroma hasitata has a fragmented and declining population estimated at c.1,000 breeding pairs. On land, the species nests underground in steep ravines with dense understorey vegetation. The only confirmed breeding sites are located in the mountain ranges of Hispaniola in the Caribbean, where habitat loss and...
Surface elevation change evaluation in mangrove forests using a low‐cost, rapid‐scan terrestrial laser scanner
Ali Rouzbeh Kargar, Richard A. MacKenzie, Alexander Fafard, Ken Krauss, Jan van Aardt
2021, Limnology and Oceanography Methods (19) 8-20
Mangrove forests have adapted to sea level rise (SLR) increases by maintaining their forest floor elevation via belowground root growth and surface sediment deposits. Researchers use surface elevation tables (SETs) to monitor surface elevation change (SEC) in mangrove forests, after which this information is used to...
The snag’s the limit: Habitat selection modeling for the western purple martin in a managed forest landscape
Lorelle M. Sherman, Joan Hagar
2021, Forest Ecology and Management (480)
The western purple martin (Progne subis arboricola), an avian insectivore, is a species of conservation concern throughout the Pacific Northwest. Compared to the well-studied eastern subspecies (Progne subis subis), little is known of the life history and biology of the western...
Relative abundance of coyotes (Canis latrans) influences gray fox (Urocyon cinereoargenteus) occupancy across the eastern United States
Michael E. Egan, Casey C. Day, Todd E. Katzner, Patrick A. Zollner
2021, Canadian Journal of Zoology (99) 63-72
Gray fox (Urocyon cinereoargenteus (Schreber, 1775)) populations in portions of the eastern United States have experienced declines whose trajectories differ from those of other mesocarnivore populations. One hypothesis is that gray fox declines may result from interspecific interactions, particularly competition with abundant coyotes (Canis latrans Say, 1823). Alternatively, gray foxes may respond...
Socio-technical scales in socio-environmental modeling: Managing a system-of-systems modeling approach
Takuya Iwanaga, Hsiao-Hsuan Wang, Serena Hamilton, Volker Grimm, Tomasz Koralewski, Alejandro Salado, Sondoss Elsawah, Saman Razavi, Jing Yang, Pierre D. Glynn, Jennifer Badham, Alexey Voinov, Mingshu Chen, William Grant, Tarla Peterson, Karin Frank, Gary W. Shenk, C. Michael Barton, Anthony J. Jakeman, John C. Little
2021, Environmental Modelling and Software (135)
System-of-systems approaches for integrated assessments have become prevalent in recent years. Such approaches integrate a variety of models from different disciplines and modeling paradigms to represent a socio-environmental (or social-ecological) system aiming to holistically inform policy and decision-making processes. Central...
Material failure and caldera collapse: Insights from the 2018 Kilauea eruption
Gabrielle Tepp
2021, Earth and Planetary Science Letters (553)
The Failure Forecast Method (FFM) was introduced as an empirical model for forecasting catastrophic material failures related to natural hazards, such as landslides and volcanic eruptions, with mixed success. During the 2018 eruption of Kilauea volcano, Hawaii, the draining of the summit...
Tall building performance-based seismic design using SCEC broadband platform site-specific ground motion simulations
Kuanshi Zhong, Ting Lin, Greg Deierlein, Robert Graves, Fabio Silva, Nico Luco
2021, Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics (50) 81-98
The scarcity of strong ground motion records presents a challenge for making reliable performance assessments of tall buildings whose seismic design is controlled by large-magnitude and close-distance earthquakes. This challenge can be addressed using broadband ground-motion simulation methods to generate records with site-specific characteristics of large-magnitude events. In this paper,...
Balancing transferability and complexity of species distribution models for rare species conservation
Nolan A. Helmstetter, Courtney J. Conway, Bryan S. Stevens, Amanda R. Goldberg
2021, Diversity and Distributions (27) 95-108
AimSpecies distribution models (SDMs) are valuable for rare species conservation and are commonly used to extrapolate predictions of habitat suitability geographically to regions where species occurrence is unknown (i.e., transferability). Spatially structured cross-validation can be used to infer transferability, yet, few studies have evaluated how delineation of...
Signatures of hydrologic function across the critical zone observatory network
Adam N. Wlostowski, Noah P. Molotch, Suzanne P. Anderson, Susan L. Brantley, Jon Chorover, David Dralle, Praveen Kumar, Li Li, Kathleen A. Lohse, John Mallard, Jennifer C. McIntosh, Sheila F. Murphy, Eric Parrish, Mohammad Safeeq, Mark Seyfried, Yuning Shi, Ciaran Harman
2021, Water Resources Research (57)
Despite a multitude of small catchment studies, we lack a deep understanding of how variations in critical zone architecture lead to variations in hydrologic states and fluxes. This study characterizes hydrologic dynamics of 15 catchments of the U.S. Critical Zone Observatory (CZO) network where we hypothesized that our understanding of...
Hierarchical computing for hierarchical models in ecology
Hanna M. McCaslin, Abigail B. Feuka, Mevin Hooten
2021, Article
Bayesian hierarchical models allow ecologists to account for uncertainty and make inference at multiple scales. However, hierarchical models are often computationally intensive to fit, especially with large datasets, and researchers face trade-offs between capturing ecological complexity in statistical models and implementing these models.We present...
Landscape‐scale restoration minimizes tree growth vulnerability to 21st century drought in a dry forest
John B. Bradford, Caitlin M. Andrews, Marcos D. Robles, Lisa A. McCauley, Travis Woolley, Robert Marshall
2021, Ecological Applications (31)
Increasing aridity is a challenge for forest managers and reducing stand density to minimize competition is a recognized strategy to mitigate drought impacts on growth. In many dry forests, the most widespread and common forest management programs currently being implemented focus on restoration of historical stand...
Geochemical and geophysical indicators of oil and gas wastewater can trace potential exposure pathways following releases to surface waters
Isabelle M. Cozzarelli, Douglas B. Kent, Martin A. Briggs, Mark A Engle, Adam J. Benthem, Katherine Skalak, Adam C. Mumford, Jeanne B. Jaeschke, Aida Farag, John W. Lane Jr., Denise M. Akob
2021, Science of the Total Environment (755)
Releases of oil and gas (OG) wastewaters can have complex effects on stream-water quality and downstream organisms, due to sediment-water interactions and groundwater/surface water exchange. Previously, elevated concentrations of sodium (Na), chloride (Cl), barium (Ba), strontium (Sr), and lithium...
Integrated geophysical imaging of rare-earth-element-bearing iron oxide-apatite deposits in the eastern Adirondack Highlands, New York
Anjana K. Shah, Ryan D. Taylor, Gregory J. Walsh, Jeffrey Phillips
2021, Geophysics (86) B37-B54
The eastern Adirondack Highlands of northern New York host dozens of iron oxide-apatite (IOA) deposits containing magnetite and rare earth element (REE)-bearing apatite. We use new aeromagnetic, aeroradiometric, ground gravity, and sample petrophysical and geochemical data to image and understand these deposits and their geologic framework. Aeromagnetic total field data...