Living with uncertainty: Using multi-model large ensembles to assess emperor penguin extinction risk for the IUCN Red List
Stephanie Jenouvrier, Alice Eparvier, Bilgecan Sen, Francesco Ventura, Christian Joseph Che-Castaldo, Marika Holland, Laura Landrum, Kristen Krumhardt, Jimmy Garnier, Karine Delord, Christophe Barbraud, Philip Trathan
2025, Biological Conservation (305)
Improved methods for identifying species at risk are needed to strengthen climate change vulnerability assessments, as current estimates indicate that up to one million species face extinction due to environmental changes. Integrating multiple sources of uncertainty enhances the robustness of Red List of Threatened Species assessments, providing a more comprehensive...
Assessing the effect of coral reef restoration location on coastal flood hazard along the San Juan Coastline, Puerto Rico
Ramin Familkhalili, Curt D. Storlazzi, Michael Nemeth, Shay Viehman
2025, Frontiers in Marine Science (12)
Coastal resilience has become a pressing global issue due to the growing vulnerability of coastlines to the effects of climate change. Nature-based solutions have emerged as a promising approach to coastal protection to not only enhance coastal resilience, but also restore critical ecosystems. Coral reef restoration has the potential to...
Pathways for potential exposure to onshore oil and gas wastewater: What we need to know to protect human health
Ayusha Ariana, Isabelle M. Cozzarelli, Cloelle Danforth, Bonnie McDevitt, Anna Rosofsky, Donna Vorhees
2025, Environmental Health Perspectives (9)
Produced water is a chemically complex waste stream generated during oil and gas development. Roughly four trillion liters were generated onshore in the United States in 2021 (ALL Consulting, 2022, https://www.gwpc.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/2021_Produced_Water_Volumes.pdf). Efforts are underway to expand historic uses of produced water to offset freshwater needs in water-stressed regions,...
Behavioral plasticity in detection height of an invasive, arboreal snake based on size, condition, and prey
Melia G. Nafus, Levi Gray, Page E. Klug, Gordon H. Rodda, Scott Michael Goetz
2025, Wildlife Research (52)
ContextAnimals may adjust their behavior in predictable ways to balance tradeoffs between resource acquisition and survival or fecundity. Microhabitat selection based on individual traits or environmental conditions is one measure of risk–reward tradeoffs by individuals.AimsWe used data from observational and manipulative studies to investigate whether an...
Evaluating the applicability of the generalized power-law rating curve model: With applications to paired discharge-stage data from Iceland, Sweden, and the United States
Rafael Daniel Vias, Birgir Hrafnkelsson, Timothy O. Hodson, Sölvi Rögnvaldsson, Axel Örn Jansson, Sigurdur M. Gardarsson
2025, Journal of Hydrology (651)
Hydrologic research and operations make extensive use of streamflow time series. In most applications, these time series are estimated from rating curves, which relate flow to some easy-to-measure surrogate, typically stage. The conventional stage-discharge rating takes the form of a segmented power law, with one segment for each hydrologic control...
Complex staged emplacement of a basaltic lava: The example of the July 1974 flow of Kīlauea
Sebastian Biass, Bruce F. Houghton, Edward W. Llewellin, Kristine C Curran, Thorvaldur Thordarson, Tim R. Orr, Carolyn Parcheta, Peter J. Mouginis-Mark
2025, Bulletin of Volcanology (87)
Basaltic lava flows can be highly destructive. Forecasting the future path and/or behavior of an active lava flow is challenging because topography is often poorly constrained and lava has a complex rheology and emplacement history. Preserved lavas are an important source of information which, combined with observations of active flows,...
The effects of breeding status on common raven movement, home range, and habitat selection
Julia C. Brockman, Peter S. Coates, John C. Tull, Pat J. Jackson, Shawn T. O’Neil, Perry J. Williams
2025, Journal of Wildlife Management (89)
Anthropogenic infrastructure has contributed to increasing common raven (Corvus corax) abundance across the Great Basin region of the United States, particularly in sagebrush ecosystems, where high raven densities are correlated with reduced sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) nest survival. Our understanding of how raven reproductive behavior affects sage-grouse nest predation is limited,...
Topographic controls on landslide mobility: Modeling hurricane-induced landslide runout and debris-flow inundation in Puerto Rico
Dianne L. Brien, Mark E. Reid, Collin Cronkite-Ratcliff, Jonathan P. Perkins
2025, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (25) 1229-1253
In 2017, Hurricane Maria triggered more than 70 000 landslides in Puerto Rico. After initiation, these predominantly shallow landslides were mobilized to varying extents – some landslides only traveled partway downslope, whereas others reached drainage channels and were mobilized into long-traveled debris flows that could severely impact roads and infrastructure....
The GorDAS Distributed Acoustic Sensing experiment above the Cascadia locked zone and subducted Gorda Slab
Jeffrey J. McGuire, Andrew J. Barbour, Connie Stewart, Victor Yartsev, Martin Karrenbach, Mark Hemphill-Haley, Robert C. McPherson, Kari Stockdale, Clara Yoon, Theresa Marie Sawi
2025, Seismological Research Letters (96) 2489-2503
The southernmost portion of the Cascadia Subduction zone in Northern California produces high rates of moderate and large earthquakes owing to subduction of the Gorda slab and deformation associated with the Mendocino Triple Junction. Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) is rapidly advancing as a method for detecting earthquakes and imaging crustal...
Assessment of western Oregon debris-flow hazards in burned and unburned environments
Brittany Danielle Selander, Nancy C. Calhoun, William Burns, Jason W. Kean, Francis K. Rengers
2025, Earth Surface Processes and Landforms (50)
In the steep and mountainous environment of western Oregon, debris flows pose a considerable threat to property, infrastructure and life. Wildfire is commonly known to increase the susceptibility of steep slopes to debris flows, but the extent of this process in the western Cascades is not well understood. The US...
Understanding predator-prey-competitor dynamics between Lower Missouri River Macrhybopsis and Scaphirhynchus using a population—bioenergetics model ensemble
Mark L. Wildhaber, Janice L. Albers, Nicholas S. Green
2025, Ecological Modeling (504)
The pallid sturgeon Scaphirhynchus albus is a long-lived, endangered fish in the Missouri River. Individuals become piscivorous as adults, so recruitment from stocking or reproduction could reduce populations of prey, including Macrhybopsis chubs. We constructed an individual- and age-based, multi-species, predator-prey-competitor model (IAMP) to represent the benthic community (sturgeons, chubs, and chironomids) of the...
Do watershed conditions or local climate play a larger role in determining regional stream salamander distributions?
Kristen K. Cecala, Brian J. Halstead, James S. McGrory, John C. Maerz
2025, Hydrobiologia (852) 4053-4067
Anthropogenic influences like land use and climate variability interact with natural heterogeneity to influence the persistence of stream salamanders. Using occupancy modeling in the southern Appalachian Mountains, we investigated the influence of land use, climate, and physical context (e.g., drainage area, elevation) on stream salamander occupancy, noting species, and life...
A crustal thermal model of the conterminous U.S. constrained by multiple data sets: A Monte-Carlo approach
Siyuan Sui, Weisen Shen, Oliver S. Boyd
2025, Geophysical Journal International (241) 1711-1724
The thermal structure of the continental crust plays a critical role in understanding its elastic and rheologic properties as well as its dynamic processes. Thermal parameter data sets on continental scales have been used to constrain the crustal thermal structure, including both the direct (e.g. temperature, heat flux and heat...
Evaluating five shoreline change models against 40 years of field survey data at an embayed sandy beach
Oxana Repina, Rafael C. Carvalho, Giovanni Coco, Jose Antolínez, Iñaki de Santiago, Mitchell D. Harley, Camilo Jaramillo, Kristen D. Splinter, Sean Vitousek, Colin D. Woodroffe
2025, Coastal Engineering (199)
Robust and reliable models are needed to understand how coastlines will evolve over the coming decades, driven by both natural variability and climate change. This study evaluated how accurately five popular ‘reduced-complexity’ models replicate multi-decadal shoreline change at Narrabeen-Collaroy Beach,...
Estuarine tidal cycles may preserve thermal refugia as global temperatures increase
Melanie J. Davis, Isa Woo, Susan E.W. De La Cruz
2025, Estuaries and Coasts (48)
Climate change is affecting coastal ecosystems worldwide as water temperatures increase, hydrologic regimes change, and sea levels rise. Consequently, estuaries risk declines in ecosystem functioning due to increasing temperatures and other hydrologic factors. Characterizing and predicting estuarine water temperature are challenging because these systems are highly dynamic. Statistical models have...
Wave driven cross shore and alongshore transport reveal more extreme projections of shoreline change in island environments
Richelle Moskvichev, Anna Mikkelsen, Tiffany Anderson, Sean Vitousek, Joel Nicolow, Charles Fletcher
2025, Scientific Reports (15)
Coastal erosion, intensified by sea level rise, poses significant threats to coastal communities in Hawaiʻi and similar island communities. This study projects long-term shoreline change on the Hawaiian Island of O‘ahu using the data-assimilated CoSMoS-COAST shoreline change model. CoSMoS-COAST models four key shoreline processes: (1) Alongshore transport, (2) Recession due...
A low-cost approach to monitoring streamflow dynamics in small, headwater streams using timelapse imagery and a deep learning model
Phillip J. Goodling, Jennifer H. Fair, Amrita Gupta, Jeffrey D. Walker, Todd Dubreuil, Michael J. Hayden, Benjamin Letcher
2025, Preprint
Despite their ubiquity and importance as freshwater habitat, small headwater streams are under monitored by existing stream gage networks. To address this gap, we describe a low-cost, non-contact, and low-effort method that enables organizations to monitor streamflow dynamics in small headwater streams. The method uses a camera to capture repeat...
Assessing microplastics, per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), and other contaminants of global concern in wadable agricultural streams
Shannon M. Meppelink, Dana W. Kolpin, Gregory H. LeFevre, David M. Cwiertny, Carrie E. Givens, Lee A. Green, Laura E. Hubbard, Luke Iwanowicz, Rachael F. Lane, Alyssa L. Mianecki, Padraic S. O’Shea, Clayton D. Raines, John W. Scott, Darrin A. Thompson, Michaelah C. Wilson, James L. Gray
2025, Environmental Science: Processes & Impacts (27) 1401-1422
Microplastics, per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs), pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs), and pesticides may lead to unintended environmental contamination through many pathways in multiple matrices. This statewide, multi-matrix study of contaminants of global concern (CGCs) in agricultural streams across Iowa (United States) is the first...
A partnership between the USGS and the Klamath Tribes to apply structured decision making for chronic wasting disease management
Margaret C. McEachran, Katie M. Guntly-Yancey, Richard Eugene Waggaman Berl, Donald Gentry, Michael C. Runge, Carl White, Jonathan D. Cook
2025, Fact Sheet 2025-3012
Project Overview: The Klamath Tribes (TKT) are the Klamath, Modoc, and Yahooskin Paiute peoples, and are the first peoples of the land, having lived in ancestral lands of Oregon and California since time immemorial. Members of TKT have rights to hunt, fish, trap, and gather, including the harvest of mule...
A trend analysis and model comparison of total phosphorus concentrations and loads in the Boise River near Parma, southwestern Idaho, water years 2003–21
Tyler V. King, Alysa M. Yoder
2025, Scientific Investigations Report 2024-5110
Total phosphorus (TP) concentrations and loads in the Boise River near Parma, Idaho, were examined to identify changes by month over a 19-year period from water year 2003 through water year 2021 and to evaluate the performance of three common water-quality models. Mean annual TP concentrations and loads were estimated...
System characterization report on Resourcesat-2A Linear Imaging Self Scanning-4 sensor
Mahesh Shrestha, Aparajithan Sampath, Minsu Kim, Seonkyung Park, Jeffrey Clauson
2025, Open-File Report 2021-1030-U
Executive Summary This report documents the system characterization of the Indian Space Research Organisation Resourcesat-2A Linear Imaging Self Scanning-4 (LISS–4) sensor. It is part of a series of system characterization reports produced by the U.S. Geological Survey Earth Resources Observation and Science Cal/Val Center of Excellence. These reports describe the methodology...
Reconstructing relative abundance indices for Atlantic sturgeon using hierarchical ecological models
Daniel S. Stich, Dewayne Fox, Amanda Higgs, David C. Kazyak, Richard Pendleton, Suresh A Sethi
2025, Transactions of the American Fisheries Society (154) 134-142
ObjectiveThe Atlantic Sturgeon Acipenser oxyrinchus is a wide-ranging, long-lived diadromous fish that is endangered in most of its range. Our objective was to develop and apply long-term, detection-corrected indices of relative abundance for juvenile and adult Atlantic Sturgeon in the Hudson River, New York, United States, to support...
Critical Minerals in Ores (CMiO) database
George N.D. Case, Garth E. Graham, Christopher Lawley, Evgeniy Bastrakov, David Huston, Albert H. Hofstra, Vladimir Lisitsin, Steph Hawkins, Bronwen Wang
2025, Fact Sheet 2025-3002
Critical minerals are commodities essential to modern industrial and strategic technologies and are highly vulnerable to supply chain disruption. The Critical Minerals Mapping Initiative (CMMI) is a collaboration among the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the Geological Survey of Canada, and Geoscience Australia that aims to deepen global understanding of where...
The effect of turbidity on foraging by prerostrum juvenile Paddlefish
Ethan Hood, James M. Long, Daniel E. Shoup, Casey A. Pennock, Andrew R. Dzialowski, Jason D. Schooley
2025, Transaction of the American Fisheries Society (154) 127-133
ObjectiveA previous study evaluating restoration success of Paddlefish Polyodon spathula suggested that excessive turbidity in lakes and rivers may inhibit foraging by juveniles prior to the development of the rostrum. Although a Paddlefish's rostrum, which contains electroreceptors, helps the fish to locate zooplankton prey, the prerostrum stage lacks...
Greater sage-grouse seasonal habitat associations: A review and considerations for interpretation and management applications
Gregory T. Wann, Ashley L. Whipple, Elizabeth Kari Orning, Megan M. McLachlan, Jeffrey L. Beck, Peter S. Coates, Courtney J. Conway, Jonathan B. Dinkins, Aaron N. Johnston, Christian A. Hagen, Paul Makela, David Naugle, Michael A Schroeder, James S. Sedinger, Brett L. Walker, Perry J. Williams, Richard D. Inman, Cameron L. Aldridge
2025, Journal of Wildlife Management (89)
Habitat features needed by wildlife can change in composition throughout the year, particularly in temperate ecosystems, leading to distinct seasonal spatial-use patterns. Studies of species-habitat associations therefore often focus on understanding relationships within discrete seasonal periods with common goals of prediction (e.g., habitat mapping) and inference (e.g., interpreting model coefficients)....