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During the 2018 eruption of Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai'i, scientists relied heavily on a conceptual model of explosive eruptions triggered when lava‐lake levels drop below the water table. Numerical modeling of multiphase groundwater flow and heat transport revealed that, contrary to expectations, liquid water inflow to the...

The fluctuation of water level downstream from dams due to hydropower flow releases can negatively affect riverbank stability. This research aims to investigate riverbank instability resulting from the outflow variation of hydropower plants, using Bagnell Dam and the lower Osage River (Missouri, USA) as the basis of analysis. The effects...

Glacial aquifers are an important source of groundwater in the United States and require accurate characterization to make informed management decisions. One parameter that is crucial for understanding the movement of groundwater is hydraulic conductivity, K. Nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) logging measures the NMR response associated with...

The migration of larval fish from spawning to rearing habitat in rivers is not well understood. This paper describes a methodology to predict larval drift using a Lagrangian particle-tracking (LPT) model with passive and active behavioural components loosely coupled to a quasi-three-dimensional hydraulic model. In the absence of measured larval...

Patterns of nest attendance in birds result from complex behaviours and influence the success of reproductive events. Incubation behaviours vary based on individual body condition, energy requirements and environmental factors. We assessed nest attendance patterns in Cinnamon Teal Spatula cyanoptera breeding in the San Luis Valley of Colorado...

Spatial information on the distribution of ecosystem patterns and processes can be a critical component of designing and implementing effective management programs in river‐floodplain ecosystems. For example, translating how flood pulses detected within a stream gauge record are spatially manifested across a river‐valley bottom can be used to evaluate whether...

Decisions about invasive species control and eradication can be difficult because of uncertainty in population demographics, movement ecology, and effectiveness of potential response actions. These decisions often include multiple stakeholders and management entities with potentially different objectives, management priorities, and jurisdictional authority. We provide a case study of using multi-party,...

Increasing urbanization and suburban growth in cities globally has highlighted the importance of land planning using detailed geomorphologic maps that depict anthropogenic landform changes. Such mapping provides information crucial for land management, hazard identification, and the management of the challenges arising from urbanization. The development and use...

Compositional data carry relative information. Hence, their statistical analysis has to be performed on coordinates with respect to a log-ratio basis. Frequently, the modeler is required to back-transform the estimates obtained with the modeling to have them in the original units such as euros, kg or...

The long-standing ore-genesis model for world-class deposits of the Butte mining district, Montana, is of deep pre-Main Stage porphyry Cu-Mo and overlying Main Stage Ag-Zn-Cu-zoned lode veinsformed from discrete hydrothermal systems related to rhyolite dikes. The lode-specific model describes metals zones that formed in the lode veins as hydrothermal processes...

Bayesian models provide recursive inference naturally because they can formally reconcile new data and existing scientific information. However, popular use of Bayesian methods often avoids priors that are based on exact posterior distributions resulting from former studies. Two existing Recursive Bayesian methods are: Prior- and Proposal-Recursive Bayes. Prior-Recursive Bayes uses Bayesian updating, fitting...

Translocation and rehabilitation programs are critical tools for wildlife conservation. These methods achieve greater impact when integrated in a combined strategy for enhancing population or ecosystem restoration. From 2002-2016, we reared 37 orphaned southern sea otter (Enhydra lutris nereis) pups, using captive sea otters as surrogate mothers, then released them...

The late Eocene Florissant Formation in central Colorado is a rich and diverse continental Lagerstätte yielding well-preserved fossil assemblages from lacustrine and fluvial facies. This investigation focused on the lacustrine facies at Clare’s Quarry and used biotic and abiotic evidence to characterize aspects of the lake and processes that resulted...

Airborne electromagnetic (AEM) dataare usedto estimate large-scale model structural geometry, i.e. the spatial distribution of different lithological units based on assumed or estimated resistivity-lithology relationships, and the uncertainty in those structures given imperfect measurements. Geophysically derived estimates of model structural uncertainty are then combined with hydrologic observations to assess the...

Geomorphic change from extreme events in large managed rivers has implications for river management. A steady-state, quasi-three-dimensional hydrodynamic model was applied to a 29-km reach of the Missouri River using 2011 flood data. Model results for an extreme flow (500-year recurrence interval [RI]) and an elevated managed flow (75-year RI)...

A variety of demographic statistical models exist for studying population dynamics when individuals can be tracked over time. In cases where data are missing due to imperfect detection of individuals, the associated measurement error can be accommodated under certain study designs (e.g., those that involve multiple surveys or replication). However, the interaction of...

In response to a need for information on potential domestic sources of critical minerals, the Earth Mapping Resources Initiative (Earth MRI) was established to identify and prioritize areas for acquisition of new geologic mapping, geophysical data, and elevation data to improve our knowledge of the geologic framework of the United...

A suite of statistical methods are used to study animal movement. Most of these methods treat animal trajectory data in one of three ways: as discrete pro- cesses, as continuous processes, or as point processes. We brie y review each of these approaches and then focus in on the latter. In the context of...

Group Ten Metals is exploring for base and precious metals within the Stillwater Complex, a 2.7 Ga layered mafic/ultramafic intrusion, host to the world-class Sibanye platinum group element (PGE) mines. Group Ten controls approximately 25 kilometers of strike length of prospective mafic and ultramafic rocks in the western portion of the Complex. The property...

The lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) occurs in the semiarid southern Great Plains, a region prone to periods of drought. Researchers generally believe that lesser prairie-chickens are able to satisfy their water requirements through preformed water and metabolic processes, but also know that they experience low survival and reproductive success during...

The 800-mile Trans Alaska Pipeline System (TAPS) passes through extremely remote regions, where there is a high potential for seismic activity. Alyeska Pipeline Service Company, the TAPS operator, has been on the forefront of seismic engineering and situational awareness, and continues to enhance its capabilities. TAPS has used earthquake monitoring...

We report on advancements in both hazard and consequence modeling that form the core of the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) strategy to improve rapid earthquake shaking and loss estimates. Whereas our primary goal is to improve our operational capabilities of the USGS National Earthquake Information Center, the science, software,...

(Re)insurance companies rely on earthquake risk models to estimate the frequency and severity of their potential financial losses. To protect themselves, they sometimes use parametric risk transfer solutions, which are derivative-form agreements that provide compensation as a function of routine measurable earthquake characteristics. These mechanisms typically remain in force for...

Population viability analysis (PVA) is a widely used tool that applies demographic data in simulation frameworks to assess extinction risk for species or populations. It is used in diverse conservation applications, including evaluating management effectiveness, relative risk of threats, and potential changes to protective status (Beissinger & McCullough, <a id="#cobi13818-bib-0002R" class="bibLink...

This Monitoring and Response Plan provides the Asian Carp Regional Coordinating Committee (ACRCC) with updates on FWS and USGS modeling efforts for the Spatially Explicit Asian carp Population (SEAcarP) model. For FY2020, efforts are underway to parameterize and analyze the SEAcarP model. Themes: invasive species; Asian carp; Great Lakes....