Quantifying model structural uncertainty using airborne electromagnetic data
Burke J. Minsley, N. Leon Foks, Paul A. Bedrosian
2021, Geophysical Journal International (224) 590-607
The ability to quantify structural uncertainty in geological models that incorporate geophysical data is affected by two primary sources of uncertainty: geophysical parameter uncertainty and uncertainty in the relationship between geophysical parameters and geological properties of interest. Here, we introduce an open-source, trans-dimensional Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (McMC) algorithm...
High‐resolution dynamically downscaled rainfall and temperature projections for ecological life zones within Puerto Rico and for the U.S. Virgin Islands
Jared H. Bowden, Adam J. Terando, Vasu Misra, Adrienne Wootten, Amit Bhardwaj, Ryan Boyles, William A. Gould, Jaime A. Collazo, Tanya Spero
2021, International Journal of Climatology (41) 1305-1327
The weather research and forecasting (WRF) model and a combination of the regional spectral model (RSM) and the Japanese Meteorological Agency Non‐Hydrostatic Model (NHM) were used to dynamically downscale selected CMIP5 global climate models to provide 2‐km projections with hourly model output for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands....
Step increase in eastern U.S. precipitation linked to Indian Ocean warming
Courtenay Strong, Gregory J. McCabe, Alexander Weech
2021, Geophysical Research Letters (47)
A step increase in annual precipitation over the eastern U.S. in the early 1970’s commenced five decades of invigorated hydroclimate, with ongoing impacts on streamflow and water resources. Despite its far-reaching impacts, the dynamical origin of this change is unknown. Here, analyses of a century of atmospheric and oceanic data...
The processes of preferential flow in the unsaturated zone
John R. Nimmo
2021, Soil Science Society of America Journal (85) 1-27
Preferential flow, a major influence in unsaturated soil and rock almost everywhere, occurs by multiple phenomenologically distinct hydraulic processes. For the mode known as funneled flow, concentrated in particularly conductive portions of the medium, the surface-tension/viscous-flow processes of traditional unsaturated flow theory predominate. Fingered flow, through conductive paths of higher...
Using simulation to understand annual sea lamprey marking rates on lake trout
Jean V. Adams, Michael L. Jones, James R. Bence
2021, Journal of Great Lakes Research (47) S628-S638
Sea lampreys attack fish, killing some and leaving marks on others. Great Lakes fishery managers rely on observed marking rates to assess the success of the sea lamprey control program and estimate sea lamprey-induced mortality of lake trout. Because marking rates are only observed on survivors of sea lamprey attacks,...
Evidence of host switching: Sea lampreys disproportionately attack Chinook salmon when lake trout abundance is low in Lake Ontario
Jean V. Adams, Michael L. Jones
2021, Journal of Great Lakes Research (47) S604-S611
Lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) is the presumed preferred host of the invasive sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) in the Great Lakes, but little is understood about this preference outside of laboratory experiments. By preference we mean sea lamprey attacks on hosts are disproportionate to host relative abundance. The purpose of this...
Architecture of remnant trees influences native woody plant recruitment in abandoned Hawaiian pastures
Evan M Rehm, Stephanie G. Yelenik, Marley Puanani Smith, Carla M. D’Antonio
2021, Plant Ecology (222) 659-667
Abandoned tropical pastures offer opportunities for passive and active restoration of native forest communities. Tree architecture of remnant canopy trees may be one important factor that can facilitate native plant recruitment in abandoned pastures but has largely been overlooked. Here, we evaluated patterns of native woody plant recruitment under remnant...
Assessing the assumptions of classification agreement, accuracy, and predictable healing time of sea lamprey wounds on lake trout
Tyler Firkus, Cheryl Murphy, Jean V. Adams, Ted Treska, Gregory J. Fischer
2021, Journal of Great Lakes Research (47) S368-S377
Sea lamprey control in the Laurentian Great Lakes relies on records of sea lamprey wounds on lake trout to assess whether control efforts are supporting fisheries management targets. Wounding records have been maintained for 70 years under the assumption that they are a reliable and accurate reflection of sea lamprey damage...
Mortality predispositions of conifers across western USA
Wenzhi Wang, Nathan B. English, Charlotte Grossiord, Arthur Gessler, Adrian Das, Nathan L. Stephenson, Christopher H. Baisan, Craig D. Allen, Nate G. McDowell
2021, New Phytologist (229) 831-844
Conifer mortality rates are increasing in western North America, but the physiological mechanisms underlying this trend are not well understood.We examined tree‐ring‐based radial growth along with stable carbon (C) and oxygen (O) isotope composition (δ13C and δ18O, respectively) of dying and surviving conifers at eight old‐growth forest sites across a...
Lake trout growth is sensitive to spring temperature in southwest Alaska lakes
Vanessa R. von Biela, Bryan A. Black, Daniel Young, Peter van der Sleen, Krista K. Bartz, Christian E. Zimmerman
2021, Ecology of Freshwater Fish (30) 88-99
In high‐latitude lakes, air temperature is an important driver of ice cover thickness and duration, which in turn influence water temperature and primary production supporting lake consumers and predators. In lieu of multidecadal observational records necessary to assess the response of lakes to long‐term warming, we used otolith‐based growth records...
Validation of the model-predicted spawning area of grass carp Ctenopharyngodon idella in the Sandusky River
Patrick Kocovsky, Nicole R. King, Eric Weimer, Christine Mayer, Song S. Qian
2021, Journal of Great Lakes Research (47) 29-36
Spawning of grass carp, Ctenopharyngodon idella, in the Great Lakes basin was verified when eight fertilized eggs were collected in the Sandusky River, a tributary to Lake Erie, in 2015. Using a fluvial drift model (FluEgg) and simulation modeling, researchers predicted the fertilization...
Where you trap matters: Implications for integrated sea lamprey management
Scott M. Miehls, Heather Dawson, Alex Maguffee, Nicholas S. Johnson, M.W. Jones, Norine Dobiesz
2021, Journal of Great Lakes Research (47) S320-S327
Barriers and pesticides have been used in streams to control sea lamprey in the Laurentian Great Lakes for nearly 70 years. Considerable effort has been spent to develop additional control measures, but much less effort has gone toward identifying how or where additional control measures might be cost-effectively integrated into the...
Trapping of suspended sediment by submerged aquatic vegetation in a tidal freshwater region: Field observations and long-term trends
Paul A. Work, Maureen A. Downing-Kunz, Judith Z. Drexler
2021, Estuaries and Coasts (44) 734-739
Widespread invasion by non-native, submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) may modify the sediment budget of an estuary, reducing the availability of inorganic sediment required by marshes to maintain their position in the tidal frame. The instantaneous trapping rate of suspended sediment in SAV patches in an estuary has not previously been...
Group density, disease, and season shape territory size and overlap of social carnivores
E. E. Brandell, Nicholas M. Fountain-Jones, Marie L. J. Gilbertson, Paul C. Cross, P. J. Hudson, Douglas W. Smith, Daniel R. Stahler, Craig Packer, Meggan E. Craft
2021, Journal of Animal Ecology (90) 87-101
1. The spatial organization of a population can influence the spread of information, behaviour, and pathogens. Territory size and territory overlap, components of spatial organization, provide key information as these metrics may be indicators of habitat quality, resource dispersion, contact rates, and environmental risk (e.g., indirectly transmitted pathogens). Furthermore, sociality...
Food web fuel differs across habitats and seasons of a tidal freshwater estuary
Matthew J. Young, Emily R. Howe, Teejay O’Rear, Kathleen Berridge, Peter B. Moyle
2021, Estuaries and Coasts (44) 286-301
Estuarine food webs are fueled by multiple different primary producers. However, identifying the relative importance of each producer to consumers is difficult, particularly for fishes that utilize multiple food sources due to both their mobility and their generally high trophic levels. Previous studies have documented broad spatial differences in the...
Estimating inundation of small waterbodies with sub-pixel analysis of Landsat imagery: Long-term trends in surface water area and evaluation of common drought indices
Ibrahima Sall, Christopher J. Jarchow, Brent H. Sigafus, Lisa A Eby, Michael James Forzley, Blake R. Hossack
2021, Remote Sensing in Ecology and Conservation (7) 109-124
Small waterbodies are numerically dominant in many landscapes and provide several important ecosystem services, but automated measurement of waterbodies smaller than a standard Landsat pixel (0.09 ha) remains challenging. To further evaluate sub‐Landsat pixel techniques for estimating inundation extent of small waterbodies (basin area: 0.06–1.79 ha), we used a partial spectral unmixing...
Interpreting and reporting 40Ar/39Ar geochronologic data
Allen J. Schaen, Brian R. Jicha, Kip V. Hodges, Pieter Vermeesch, Mark E. Stelten, Cameron M. Mercer, David Phillips, Tiffany Rivera, Fred Jourdan, Erin L. Matchan, Sidney R. Hemming, Leah E. Morgan, Simon P. Kelley, William S. Cassata, Matt T. Heizler, Paulo M. Vasconcelos, Jeff A. Benowitz, Anthony A.P. Koppers, Darren F. Mark, Elizabeth M. Niespolo, Courtney J. Sprain, William E. Hames, Klaudia F. Kuiper, Brent D. Turrin, Paul R. Renne, Jake Ross, Sebastian Nomade, Herve Guillou, Laura E. Webb, Barbara A. Cohen, Andrew T. Calvert, Nancy Joyce, Morgan Ganderod, Jan Wijbrans, Osamu Ishizuka, Huaiyu He, Adan Ramirez, Jorg Pfander, Margarita Lopez-Martinez, Huaning Qiu, Brad S. Singer
2021, GSA Bulletin (133) 461-487
The 40Ar/39Ar dating method is among the most versatile of geochronometers, having the potential to date a broad variety of K-bearing materials spanning from the time of Earth’s formation into the historical realm. Measurements using modern noble-gas mass spectrometers are now producing 40Ar/39Ar dates with analytical uncertainties of ∼0.1%, thereby...
Sediment budget estimates for a highly impacted embayment with extensive wetland loss
Robert Chant, David K. Ralston, Neil K. Ganju, Casia Pianca, Amy Simonson, Richard Cartwright
2021, Estuaries and Coasts (44) 608-626
External sediment supply is an important control on wetland morphology and vulnerability to storms, sea-level rise, and land use change. Constraining sediment supply and net budgets is difficult due to multiple timescales of variability in hydrodynamic forcing and suspended-sediment concentrations, as well as the fundamental limitations of measurement and modeling...
Estimating age and growth of invasive sea lamprey: A review of approaches and investigation of a new method
Heather A Dawson, Courtney Higgins-Weier, Todd B. Steeves, Nicholas S. Johnson
2021, Journal of Great Lakes Research (47) S570-S579
We review recent advances in age and growth estimation of invasive sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) in the Great Lakes and present a more accurate method for growth estimation. To forecast growth and prioritize streams for control actions, sea lamprey managers currently...
Modeling groundwater inflow to the new crater lake at Kīlauea Volcano, Hawaiʻi
Steven E. Ingebritsen, Ashton F. Flinders, James P. Kauahikaua, Paul A. Hsieh
2021, Groundwater (59) 7-15
During the 2018 eruption of Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai'i, scientists relied heavily on a conceptual model of explosive eruptions triggered when lava‐lake levels drop below the water table. Numerical modeling of multiphase groundwater flow and heat transport revealed that, contrary to expectations, liquid water inflow to the...
Riverbank stability assessment of lower Osage River during hydro-peak flow events: The lower Osage River case (Missouri, USA)
Wesam Mohammed-Ali, Cesar Mendoza, Robert R. Holmes Jr.
2021, International Journal of River Basin Management (19) 335-343
The fluctuation of water level downstream from dams due to hydropower flow releases can negatively affect riverbank stability. This research aims to investigate riverbank instability resulting from the outflow variation of hydropower plants, using Bagnell Dam and the lower Osage River (Missouri, USA) as the basis of analysis. The effects...
Assessment of NMR logging for estimating hydraulic conductivity in glacial aquifers
Alexander K. Kendrick, Rosemary Knight, Carole D. Johnson, Gaisheng Liu, Steven Knobbe, Randall J. Hunt, James J. Butler
2021, Groundwater (59) 31-48
Glacial aquifers are an important source of groundwater in the United States and require accurate characterization to make informed management decisions. One parameter that is crucial for understanding the movement of groundwater is hydraulic conductivity, K. Nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) logging measures the NMR response associated with...
A Lagrangian particle-tracking approach to modelling larval drift in rivers
Richard R. McDonald, Jonathan M. Nelson
2021, Journal of Ecohydraulics (6) 17-35
The migration of larval fish from spawning to rearing habitat in rivers is not well understood. This paper describes a methodology to predict larval drift using a Lagrangian particle-tracking (LPT) model with passive and active behavioural components loosely coupled to a quasi-three-dimensional hydraulic model. In the absence of measured larval...
Factors influencing Cinnamon Teal nest attendance patterns
Casey M. Setash, William L. Kendall, David Olson
2021, Ibis (163) 125-136
Patterns of nest attendance in birds result from complex behaviours and influence the success of reproductive events. Incubation behaviours vary based on individual body condition, energy requirements and environmental factors. We assessed nest attendance patterns in Cinnamon Teal Spatula cyanoptera breeding in the San Luis Valley of Colorado...
Quantifying and mapping inundation regimes within a large river‐floodplain ecosystem for ecological and management applications
Molly Van Appledorn, Nathan R. De Jager, Jason J. Rohweder
2021, River Research and Applications (37) 241-255
Spatial information on the distribution of ecosystem patterns and processes can be a critical component of designing and implementing effective management programs in river‐floodplain ecosystems. For example, translating how flood pulses detected within a stream gauge record are spatially manifested across a river‐valley bottom can be used to evaluate whether...
